Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

[HacheMan]

Dynasty Ranks: Wide Receivers
This is the third in Rotoworld's four-part Dynasty ranks series to kick off the fantasy football offseason. Running backs and quarterbacks have already been posted. Tight ends will be up by mid-week.

Tier One

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Andre Johnson, Texans
3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
4. Roddy White, Falcons

Megatron is the most dominant talent at his position, and he's got four years on Andre Johnson. He's also proven to be QB-proof, posting top-six fantasy finishes in two of the past three years while catching passes from Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna, Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton. … Andre Johnson and Roddy White are looking down the barrel of age 30 this offseason, the point at which wide receiver trade value begins its irreversible decline. … Fitz is the best "buy" of the offseason. His QB situation has nowhere to go but up, especially with the Cardinals realizing they could lose the face of the franchise if they don't fix the problem.

Tier Two

5. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
6. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
7. Miles Austin, Cowboys
8. Mike Wallace, Steelers
9. Greg Jennings, Packers
10. DeSean Jackson, Eagles

I own Bryant in one league, and I wouldn't trade him at age 22 for any other receiver save Calvin Johnson. Though his character issues have been severely overblown, I understand that he's not without risk as a largely unproven commodity. ... Nicks is a textbook nucleus player as a dominant young talent, but he has to prove he can stay healthy after battling wrist, leg, ankle, hamstring, knee, and multiple toe injuries in his first two seasons. … Jon Kitna took a folding chair to Austin's production in the second half of the season. Just remember that Austin posted at least nine catches and 140 yards in three of his first four games with Tony Romo in 2010. … Wallace and Jackson are two of the most uniquely talented players in the NFL. Wallace has already bypassed Hines Ward as Ben Roethlisberger's go-to receiver. Constantly banged up, the slightly built Jackson is the ultimate risk-reward WR1. … Jennings gets a long-term boost in value from Aaron Rodgers, but his production will take a hit with Jermichael Finley's return in 2011.
www.therx.ws
Tier Three

11. Kenny Britt, Titans
12. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
13. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
14. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
15. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins
16. Percy Harvin, Vikings
17. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
18. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
19. Reggie Wayne, Colts

Maclin and Britt, both just 22 years old, have already shown flashes of brilliance. The complete package as a big receiver with playmaking ability and possession- receiver skills, Britt needs only a QB upgrade and a dose of maturity to hit the top-10. … V-Jax is one of the dominant talents at the position, but he's lacking stability as a 28-year-old without a 2011 home. … As always, I'd just assume let some other owner deal with the headcase known as Brandon Marshall. … Like Matt Cassel, Bowe benefited from the softest pass defense schedule any of us have every seen. Expect a correction in 2011. … For all of his missed practice time, Harvin has played more games than Hakeem Nicks since they entered the league together. He'd be higher if not for QB questions. … Confidence in Crabtree is waning after a disappointing season, but it has created an opportunity for one of the better "buy low" opportunities of the offseason. … I'm not calling Mike Williams the next Michael Clayton, but long-time Dynasty league owners realize a strong rookie season isn't always followed up by years of dominance. … As a Wayne owner, I am content to sit on him until he reaches the inevitable cliff, because I realize he no longer carries trade value anywhere close to his actual value. His downfield playmaking ability is already slipping away.

Tier Four

20. Sidney Rice, Vikings
21. Austin Collie, Colts
22. Marques Colston, Saints
23. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
24. Santonio Holmes, Jets
25. Wes Welker, Patriots
26. Brandon Lloyd, Broncos
27. Steve Johnson, Bills

With a prodigious catch radius, Rice is among the league's best at coming down with the ball in traffic. On the negative side, two of his past three seasons have been ruined by major injuries, and his QB situation is a mess heading into 2011. … Collie is the most misunderstood receiver in the NFL. Pierre Garcon may have the name, but Collie has the game. If not for the concussion issues, he'd be locked into the top-15. … Colston is set to undergo his fifth and sixth surgeries since March of 2008. The history on his knees is not exactly the blueprint for a long career. … Like several receivers in this tier, Thomas has only to prove that he can shake off the injury bug. Talent isn't a question. … Holmes not only lacks a WR1 ceiling, he's also a major suspension risk. … Welker's value hinges on scoring system. He'd be 10 spots higher on a PPR list. … At this point, Lloyd is a one-year wonder who just lost his play-caller, will likely lose his quarterback, and may also be hearing footsteps from Thomas. I'd be shining up that 2010 first-place WR finish and flipping Lloyd for max value this offseason. … Johnson had been my pick over James Hardy since the two entered the league, but he can't count on a shot-gun heavy offense for the rest of his career. The talent may be real, but the stats were artificially inflated in the Bills' mid-season pointfest.

Tier Five

28. Pierre Garcon, Colts
29. Jordy Nelson, Packers
30. Mario Manningham, Giants
31. Johnny Knox, Bears
32. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
33. Steve Smith, Panthers
34. Braylon Edwards, Jets
35. Steve Smith, Giants
36. Randy Moss, Titans
37. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

Garcon may not be quite as good as he was hyped to be in 2009, but he's better than he showed while playing through injuries in 2010. … Nelson looks like the natural successor to Donald Driver in Green Bay. In my eyes, he had already passed James Jones before the Packers' playoff run. … Boldin was given the opportunity to take on the No. 1 receiver mantle, and he promptly disappeared for three months. ... I still love Steve Smith South's talent and I will still target him in trades for the right price, but there's no question that inept quarterbacking has killed his value. … The start of Smith North's 2011 season is in jeopardy after undergoing microfracture surgery. Manningham's value would surge if the Giants opt to turn the page on impending free agent Smith. … Knox fell just short of his expected breakout seasons, but 960 yards as a second-year player is nothing to sneeze at. … Though Braylon is coming off a solid if unspectacular season, he's less likely than Santonio Holmes to return to the Jets. … Ochocinco is in decline, but it's not as drastic as it's been portrayed. He can still play; a more consistent QB would help. … Randy Moss is the quintessential dice roll. I wouldn't rule out a 1,250-yard, 12-TD bounce-back season or a second straight disappearance before the end of the line.

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Tier Six

38. Robert Meachem, Saints
39. Jacoby Ford, Raiders
40. Santana Moss, Redskins
41. Danario Alexander, Rams
42. Mike Thomas, Jaguars
43. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
44. Jerome Simpson, Bengals
45. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars
46. Mike Williams, Seahawks
47. James Jones, Packers
48. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
49. Lance Moore, Saints
50. Jacoby Jones, Texans
51. Lee Evans, Bills

Meachem has the talent to take over as Drew Brees' go-to receiver if Colston's knees fail him down the line. … I was big on Santana Moss going into last season because he was sure to be a target hound for Donovan McNabb. That won't be the case in 2011. … Ford and Alexander both flashed the ability to take over games as a rookie. DX may be the biggest health risk in the NFL at wide receiver, Ford has to stay in the starting lineup. … Floyd's value has always been less about his own talent and more about Vincent Jackson's status. … The late-blooming Simpson must prove that his three-game flurry to end the season was not a fluke. … Sims-Walker is a lower-leg injury waiting to happen. I'm not expecting him back in Jacksonville. … Thomas' ceiling is a No. 2 receiver. … Big Mike Williams' value derives less from his inherent talent and more from a high volume of targets. … For consistency reasons, I prefer Jordy Nelson over James Jones in Green Bay. It's worth noting that Jones is due to hit free agency as well. … Sanders is already eating into Hines Ward's production. … Moore's WR3 value may hinge on re-signing with the Saints. … I'm still a believer in Jacoby Jones. He has the talent to break through as a WR2. … It turns out we were making excuses for Evans all along. Finally given a capable threat on the opposite side, he was thoroughly outplayed by Stevie Johnson.

Tier Seven

52. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers
53. Golden Tate, Seahawks
54. Davone Bess, Dolphins
55. Jordan Shipley, Bengals
56. Louis Murphy, Raiders
57. Mohamed Massaquoi, Browns
58. Terrell Owens, UFA
59. Steve Breaston, Cardinals
60. Eddie Royal, Broncos
61. Donnie Avery, Rams
62. Mark Clayton, Rams
63. Josh Morgan, 49ers
64. Nate Burleson, Lions
65. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
66. Hines Ward, Steelers
67. Donald Driver, Packers
68. Brandon Tate, Patriots
69. Andre Roberts, Cardinals
70. Early Doucet, Cardinals
71. Jason Hill, Jaguars
72. Deion Branch, Patriots
73. Plaxico Burress, UFA

Benn and Tate are upside roster stashes. … Slot machines Bess and Shipley are both more valuable in PPR leagues. Bess would be at least 20 spots higher in that format. … After hip surgery, Royal threatens to get lost in the mix of strong Denver receivers. … Now 37 and without a team, Owens' value is high only during the mid-season bye-week crunch. … The slightly built Breaston has a hard time staying in one piece, and he rarely finds the end zone. … Driver, Burleson, Cotchery, and Ward are a dime a dozen at this point in their career. … Clayton is a free agent coming off major knee surgery. The Rams may bring him back, but he'll have competition for the top receiver role. … Roberts and Doucet will vie for the starting job opposite Larry Fitzgerald. … Jason Hill is one of my favorite offseason fliers. He's always had the talent, and he could be starting opposite Mike Thomas in 2011. … Plax will play in 2011, but I can't see the Giants bringing him back.

Tier Eight

74. Damian Williams, Titans
75. Eric Decker, Broncos
76. Victor Cruz, Giants
77. Stephen Williams, Cardinals
78. David Gettis, Panthers
79. Antonio Brown, Steelers
80. Laurent Robinson, Rams
81. Taylor Price, Patriots
82. Dexter McCluster, Chiefs
83. Seyi Ajirotutu, Chargers
84. Danny Amendola, Rams
85. Anthony Armstrong, Redskins
86. Roy Williams, Cowboys
87. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
88. Derrick Mason, Ravens
89. Ramses Barden, Giants
90. Chaz Schilens, Raiders
91. Andre Caldwell, Bengals
92. Dezmon Briscoe, Buccaneers
93. Devin Hester, Bears
94. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
95. Antonio Bryant, UFA
96. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
97. Julian Edelman, Patriots
98. Legedu Naanee, Chargers
99. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
100. Bernard Berrian, Vikings

Will Antonio Brown ever be more than a No. 3 receiver in Pittsburgh? … Armstrong and Amendola may have hit their ceilings in 2010. It's hard to imagine Armstrong as a long-time starter, and Amendola's targets are going nowhere but down. … Like Josh Cribbs, McCluster will always be a better NFL than fantasy player. … Ajirotutu needs a lot to fall into place in order to carve out a starting job. … Hartline's ceiling is too low for my taste. … The Hester receiving project hit the skids in the second half of the 2010 season. He's more valuable as a returner. … Damian Williams, Decker, Cruz, Stephen Williams, and Barden still make for interesting wild cards at the end of the roster.​

 

[HacheMan]

Super Bowl Hangover?
I don't believe in such a thing as a "curse," especially when it comes to football. I do, however, believe in trends.

When a running back rushes 370 times or more in a season, he isn't cursed to have a poor encore -- he is simply worn down and more susceptible to injury. If a player is on the cover of Sports Illustrated, there is no hex on him -- we just notice it more when something bad happens to a star player that was playing well enough to be a cover boy.

The same thing can be said for the idea of a "Super Bowl hangover." All athletes are prone to natural statistical regressions after doing something great.

Ask Chris Johnson about that. After running for 2,006 yards on a 5.6 yards per carry average in 2009, he managed "just" 1,364 rushing yards this season. It isn't necessarily because Johnson didn't run as well, or his 2k season was a fluke. It's just that the multitude of factors that fell into perfect place during his magical campaign are unlikely to ever come together at the same time again.

The same can be said for the extraordinary feats from the 2010 season. It would be unrealistic to think that Jamaal Charles' 6.4 yards per carry can be duplicated, along with Dwayne Bowe's 15 receiving touchdowns. I love both players, but we have to be prepared for a natural statistical regression. Understanding that paying a premium for last year's outlier stats is a bad idea is the first step toward better drafting.

Now, let's get back to that "Super Bowl Hangover." Yes, it is true that teams often come back to earth after Super Bowl runs. This trend especially applies to losers in the big game.

A couple years ago, I looked specifically at how quarterbacks who lost in the Super Bowl fared the following year. The updated results: Over the last 17 years, just two quarterbacks (Jake Delhomme 2004 and Peyton Manning 2010) were better from a fantasy perspective the year after their loss. What does that mean for Ben Roethlisberger? Well, considering he only played in 12 games this season, he is a great bet to improve on this year’s QB17 rank. But is some type of hangover possible? History answers that with an emphatic yes.

Let's look at Super Bowl regression from a team perspective. Here are the total points scored for the last 20 Super Bowl participants. Listed first is the number of points scored in the Super Bowl season. The second number is the encore.

2010 Steelers 375
2011 Steelers ???

2010 Packers 388
2011 Packers ???

2009 Colts 416
2010 Colts 435

2009 Saints 510
2010 Saints 384

2008 Cardinals 427
2009 Cardinals 375

2008 Steelers 347
2009 Steelers 368

2007 Patriots 589
2008 Patriots 410

2007 Giants 373
2008 Giants 427

2006 Bears 427
2007 Bears 334

2006 Colts 427
2007 Colts 450

2005 Seahawks 452
2006 Seahawks 335

2005 Steelers 389
2006 Steelers 353

2004 Eagles 386
2005 Eagles 310

2004 Patriots 437
2005 Patriots 379

2003 Panthers 325
2004 Panthers 355

2003 Patriots 348
2004 Patriots 437

2002 Raiders 450
2003 Raiders 270

2002 Bucs 346
2003 Bucs 301

2001 Rams 503
2002 Rams 316

2001 Patriots 371
2002 Patriots 381

2000 Giants 328
2001 Giants 294

2000 Ravens 333
2001 Ravens 303

The units that improved from a points scored perspective are in bold. As you can see, seven of the 20 Super Bowl participants managed to put up more points the year after playing in the championship. It's not an overwhelming number, but it's a regression worth noting.

The bottom line is that logical thinking suggests an improvement offensively for both Super Bowl participants next year. The Packers will be getting back Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant, while the Steelers will have Roethlisberger for the whole year. But if they don't reach expectations next year, don't blame it on a curse. Many times, these things just happen naturally.​

 

[HacheMan]

Mayock Updates His Top Fives
NFL Network's Mike Mayock is widely considered the top draft analyst in the business, so we tend to take his opinions seriously. We often do Mayock-related blurbs on the Rotoworld news page.

Mayock released his initial top-fives by position on January 25. He updated them today. Here they are:

Quarterbacks
1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2. Jake Locker, Washington
3. Cam Newton, Auburn
4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
5. Andy Dalton, TCU

Comments: Mayock says he's not done with his quarterback evaluation, but he's made some changes since January. He's now got Dalton alone in the five spot after the Horned Frogs' four-year starter previously shared the position with Ricky Stanzi, Colin Kaepernick, and Pat Devlin. Devlin's stock appears to have plummeted since a poor showing at the East-West Shrine Game. Senior Bowl MVP Christian Ponder remains absent from the list.

Running Backs
1. Mark Ingram, Alabama
2. Mikel Leshoure, Illinois
3. Daniel Thomas, Kansas State
4. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
5. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State

Comments: Mayock relentlessly talked up Kendall Hunter at the Senior Bowl, so it's surprising that the former Oklahoma State Cowboy is no longer even in a tie for the five spot. The biggest notable here, particularly from a fantasy perspective, is Leshoure's jump into the two-hole. Mayock said during Senior Bowl week that he wanted to watch more film on Leshoure. After doing so, Mayock has moved the Illinois product into conversation as a top-40 selection. Ingram remains the consensus top draft-eligible running back.
www.therx.ws
Wide Receivers
1. A.J. Green, Georgia
2. Julio Jones, Alabama
3. Titus Young, Boise State
4. Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh
5. Torrey Smith, Maryland

Comments: Smith is the newcomer to the receiver top five, overtaking the old cast of Jerrel Jernigan, Randall Cobb, and Greg Little. Mayock's biggest switch was moving Young past Baldwin into the No. 3 position. Chris Wesseling, dominating the Rotoworld news page Thursday, did a post about Young's rise. Baldwin is a physical freak at 6'5/230 with alleged sub-4.4 speed, but there are concerns about his on-field concentration and off-field decision making.

Tight Ends
1. Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
2. Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin
3. Luke Stocker, Tennessee
4. D.J. Williams, Arkansas
5. Virgil Green, Nevada

Comments: It's pretty much status quo here, as Mayock's evaluation of Kendricks through Williams did not change after seeing all three of those players on the Senior Bowl practice field. Stocker has drawn comparisons to Jason Witten and Oakland's Zach Miller as a complete tight end. The only change is the dropping out of Tulsa's Charles Clay in favor of Green.

Interior Offensive Line
1. Mike Pouncey, Florida
2. Danny Watkins, Baylor
3. Clint Boling, Georgia
4. John Moffitt, Wisconsin
5. Rodney Hudson, Florida State

Comments: The old list: 1) Pouncey, 2) Stefen Wisniewski, 3) Watkins, 4) Moffitt, 5) Hudson/Will Rackley. Pouncey is still the likeliest guard/center to be drafted in the first round, and Watkins is emerging as the clear-cut second best interior line prospect despite his age (27 next November). The Football Outsiders just kill it in this breakdown of Watkins and Rodney Hudson. Boling is the newcomer, essentially replacing Wisniewski, who's fallen off the list altogether.

Offensive Tackles
1. Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
2. Nate Solder, Colorado
3. Tyron Smith, USC
4. Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
5 (tie). Ben Ijalana, Villanova; Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State

Comments: Mayock has bumped Castonzo into first place ahead of Solder. (Mayock and Castonzo share an alma mater, although we'll assume that's not the reason for the switch.) Castonzo was a four-year starter at B.C. and the Eagles' first offensive lineman in over a decade to start on the offensive line as a true freshman. Smith overtakes Carimi as the more athletic tackle prospect; Carimi is probably ticketed for right tackle in the NFL. Ijalana missed the Senior Bowl due to "double hernia" surgery, but teams must be confident in his health. Wes Bunting of the National Football Post loves Ijalana, FWIW.

Defensive Ends
1. Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson
2. J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
3. Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
4. Cameron Jordan, California
5. Robert Quinn, North Carolina

Comments: Watt leaped from No. 5 (tie) among defensive ends into the two-hole after Mayock watched film of Wisconsin's Rose Bowl loss to TCU. Watt did not put up big statistics in that game, so it's a good sign that Mayock was impressed even without the pass rusher racking up sacks and tackles for loss. It's also a good sign for Clayborn that he's still considered a top-three defensive end in this year's draft. He only had 3.5 sacks in 2010. Most observers are holding off on Quinn until he performs at the Combine.

Defensive Tackle
1. Marcell Dareus, Alabama
2. Nick Fairley, Auburn
3. Corey Liuget, Illinois
4. Stephen Paea, Oregon State
5. Jurrell Casey, USC

Comments: In terms of the top of the draft, the most intriguing development is Dareus passing Fairley as the top defensive tackle prospect. Fairley is considered the likely No. 1 pick in many circles. Critics can point to Mayock's ranking of Gerald McCoy over Ndamukong Suh ahead of last year's draft as reason to disagree. Liuget is really picking up steam, as noted in this item on Wednesday's news page.

Outside Linebacker
1. Von Miller, Texas A&M
2. Akeem Ayers, UCLA
3. Justin Houston, Georgia
4. Bruce Carter, North Carolina
5. Chris Carter, Fresno State

Comments: Carter was the 2010 WAC Defensive Player of the Year, but is a 'tweener. He'll appeal to 3-4 teams as an outside rush linebacker. Ayers' best comparison is Karlos Dansby. Houston is sensationally explosive off the edge, though CBS' Rob Rang has questioned his ability to play outside of a 4-3 scheme, calling Houston "one of the more overrated prospects in the draft to this point."

Inside Linebackers
1. Martez Wilson, Illinois
2. Colin McCarthy, Miami (FL)
3. Quan Sturdivant, North Carolina
4. Casey Matthews, Oregon
5. Kelvin Sheppard, LSU

Comments: Hopefully, your team doesn't need an inside linebacker. Because behind Wilson this is a thoroughly unimpressive group.

Cornerbacks
1. Patrick Peterson, LSU
2. Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
3. Aaron Williams, Texas
4. Jimmy Smith, Colorado
5. Brandon Harris, Miami (FL)

Comments: Ranked third in Mayock's previous rankings, Harris is slipping after getting torched by Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd in the Sun Bowl. It's probably deserved, especially considering Floyd only got a third-round grade from the NFL Draft Advisory Committee. Smith, as expected, is rising. Latest word from SI's Tony Pauline has Smith looking "sensational" in pre-Combine workouts.

Safeties
1. Rahim Moore, UCLA
2. Ahmad Black, Florida
3. Marcus Gilchrist, Clemson
4. Quinton Carter, Oklahoma
5. Deunta Williams, North Carolina

Comments: Williams, previously third in Mayock's safety ranks, was recently spotted walking around Chapel Hill with a boot on the foot he fractured in the Tar Heels' bowl game. He seems unlikely to participate in the Combine. Robert Sands and Will Hill have vanished from the list, replaced by Gilchrist and Carter.​

 

[HacheMan]

Dynasty Ranks: Tight Ends
This is the fourth in Rotoworld's four-part Dynasty ranks series to kick off the fantasy football offseason. Running backs and quarterbacks and wide receivers have already been posted.

Tier One

1. Jermichael Finley, Packers
2. Antonio Gates, Chargers
3. Vernon Davis, 49ers
4. Jason Witten, Cowboys
5. Dallas Clark, Colts

I'm tempted to leave Gates at No. 1, but he's heading into his age-31 season. Would you rather have a shot at 3-4 dominant seasons with Gates or a shot at 8-10 with Finley catching passes from Aaron Rodgers? I'll roll the dice with Finley. … Davis has finished first and third in fantasy points the past two seasons. He's as talented as any tight end in the league, but there's uncertainty heading into 2011 with a new offense and a question mark at QB. … In 11 games with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee, Witten averaged 6.5 receptions, 66.5 yards, 0.73 TDs, and 11.0 fantasy points. In five games with Tony Romo, Witten averaged 4.6 receptions, 54 yards, 0.2 TDs, and 6.6 fantasy points. … Clark turns 32 next season, but he remains one of a handful of weekly difference-makers at the position.

Tier Two

6. Zach Miller, Raiders
7. Jimmy Graham, Saints
8. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
9. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
10. Owen Daniels, Texans
11. Dustin Keller, Jets
12. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars

This tier gave me more trouble than the rest combined. There are only a half-dozen sure-fire plug 'n' play tight ends heading into the 2011 season. Isn't it better to play a young lottery ticket like Hernandez, Gronkowski, or Graham, hoping they develop into a tier one difference-maker? … An interesting note: Miller has four years under his belt, and he's still just a year older than Jimmy Graham. If not for a painful plantar faschia injury, he would have finished as a top-five tight end in 2010. … The late-season fade obscures the fact that Hernandez exceeded expectations with a 45/563/6 line as the youngest player in the NFL. … Gronkowski looks like a young Todd Heap as Tom Brady's favorite red-zone weapon. … Expect the freakishly athletic Graham to play the same role for Drew Brees. … Keller's fast start last season hints at his potential, but consistency remains elusive. … Daniels recaptured his 2007-09 form over the final four weeks of the season, leading all tight ends in targets while averaging 5.5 receptions and 68 yards. Coach Gary Kubiak made it clear that re-signing Daniels is a high priority for the Texans this offseason. … Lewis is underrated as an NFL tight end, but he's going to be overvalued as a fantasy property coming off a 10-TD season.

Tier Three

13. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
14. Jared Cook, Titans
15. Chris Cooley, Redskins
16. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
17. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers
18. Brent Celek, Eagles
19. Heath Miller, Steelers
20. Greg Olsen, Bears

In 10 games started by Shaun Hill, Pettigrew averaged 5.6 receptions and 61.5 yards. In three games started by Matthew Stafford, Pettigrew averaged 2.0 receptions and 10.7 yards. … The Titans turned over the tight end position to Cook late in the season, and he responded by finishing 10th in fantasy points over the final five weeks and sixth in the final three weeks. He's a strong breakout candidate for 2011. … Gresham benefited from Carson Palmer's checkdown tendencies, but the majority of his rookie-year production came in garbage time with the Bengals in hurry-up mode. … The final numbers of Cooley and Winslow look decent, but fantasy owners spent the entire 2010 season looking for superior options at the position. Winslow, in particular, was boosted by a Week 16 outlier. … Celek is an interesting buy coming off a down season, but he's not going to reach the heights of 2009 with Michael Vick at QB. … Miller has the game to bounce back to top-10 production, but his fantasy production rests on the Steelers upgrading the pass blocking. … The Bears' surprisingly successful season saved Mike Martz's job, effectively killing Olsen's 2011 value.

Tier Four

21. Todd Heap, Ravens
22. Fred Davis, Redskins
23. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
24. Ben Watson, Browns
25. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
26. Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings
27. Kevin Boss, Giants
28. John Carlson, Seahawks

Heap is the same age as Antonio Gates, and he proved in 2010 that he has plenty of game left. His 10-catch, 108-yard effort in the playoffs was one of the most impressive tight end games of the season. … Davis is entering a contract year, but his 2012 freedom hinges on the next CBA. … Moeaki showed plenty of promise as a rookie, but he's injury-prone with a relatively low fantasy ceiling. … Gonzalez has lost any semblance of playmaking ability at age 35. … Watson's 68/763/3 line was good for a career year, but he was a maddening fantasy play all year. … Shiancoe's value has plummeted with Brett Favre out of the picture. … Boss is mediocrity personified. … Carlson could end up losing snaps to Cameron Morrah if he doesn't snap out of his year-and-a-half tailspin.

Tier Five

29. Martellus Bennett, Cowboys
30. Ed Dickson, Ravens
31. Tony Scheffler, Lions
32. Jacob Tamme, Colts
33. Jeremy Shockey, Saints
34. Cameron Morrah, Seahawks
35. James Casey, Texans
36. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
37. Joel Dreessen, Texans

Bennett is due to hit free agency after next season. … Dickson looks like the successor to Heap. … Scheffler was outplayed by Pettigrew. … Unless you're into handcuffing tight ends (I won't judge you), Tamme is practically valueless with Dallas Clark signed through 2013. … Shockey is about to take a backseat to Jimmy Graham. … Morrah can't block a lick, but his speed is intriguing as a "move" tight end. … Casey has been broken in slowly, but he still has a chance to be the tight end of the future in Houston. … About those tight end handcuffs, Dreessen may enter the season as the starter if Daniels gets away. … Fasano is a poor man's Kevin Boss.

Tier Six

38. Fendi Onobun, Rams
39. Gary Barnidge, Panthers
40. Evan Moore, Browns
41. Zach Miller, Jaguars
42. Michael Hoomanawanui, Rams
43. Shawn Nelson, Bills
44. Bo Scaife, UFA
45. Andrew Quarless, Packers
46. John Phillips, Cowboys
47. Dennis Pitta, Ravens
48. Chase Coffman, Bengals
49. Clay Harbor, Eagles
50. Travis Beckum, Giants

Onobun remains a project, but his measurables are off the charts. … Hoomanawanui's pass-catching ability is better than advertised, but his fantasy potential is capped by Josh McDaniels' offense. … Barnidge, Moore, and Miller are essentially souped-up wide receivers with impressive pass-catching ability, but they don't block well enough for consistent snaps. … Nelson still has his Dynasty league true believers, but he done nothing but miss games and underwhelm onlookers in two years. … Scaife is done as a fantasy factor. … Quarless is blocked by Jermichael Finley. … Phillips was coming on as an interesting backup before suffering a torn ACL last summer​

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: Combine Preview
NFL Network's coverage of the 2011 Scouting Combine begins Thursday and lasts through Tuesday, March 1. Over 300 players, and many more NFL team representatives, will convene at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium for the premier event of the pre-draft process.

We've got you covered with this comprehensive preview of the six-day affair, and will update all notable Combine developments beginning with the weigh-in on the Rotoworld news page.

[SIZE=+1]Spotlight on the Stars[/SIZE]

LSU CB Patrick Peterson

The Thorpe Award winner as college football's top defensive back, Peterson is aiming for a 4.2 forty time while draft analysts debate whether his best NFL position is corner or safety. Peterson was timed at 4.37 last spring, also putting on record a 39-inch vertical and 11-foot-1 broad jump.

Georgia WR A.J. Green

I sent Green to Cleveland with the sixth pick in my latest mock draft, but he's emerging as a sleeper to go No. 1 overall with momentum building for a Steve Smith trade. In addition to his forty time and vertical, keep an eye on Green's hand size and arm length at the weigh-in.

Auburn DT Nick Fairley

Like Ndamukong Suh last year, Fairley heads to Indy favored to be drafted first. Suh enjoyed a terrific Combine, but "fell" to No. 2. Fairley isn't as clean a prospect as Suh was, so he may need even better workouts to avoid being passed by Green, Da'Quan Bowers, or Cam Newton.

Alabama WR Julio Jones

Jones is currently seen as a surefire top-14 pick who may begin receiving consideration at No. 10 from Washington. But what if the Panthers trade Smith and use the top pick on Green? With only two wideouts certain to be drafted in the top 20, Jones could benefit greatly from such a scenario.

UCLA LB Akeem Ayers

In 28 college starts, Ayers racked up 29.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks, and six interceptions despite playing out of position at strong-side linebacker in UCLA's 4-3 defense. He's seen as a 3-4 rush linebacker prospect for the pros, and could be among the Combine's leaders in the 10-yard split.

[SIZE=+1]Sleepers[/SIZE]

Indiana WR Tandon Doss

ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have both mentioned Doss as a likely Combine riser, with Kiper going so far as to suggest Doss could be drafted late in the first round. An impressive athlete at 6'3/200, Doss led the Big Ten in all-purpose yardage last season as a third-year junior.

Hawaii RB Alex Green

Discussed over on Pancake Blocks, Green boasts the second best career yards-per-carry average in the 2011 NFL draft. Hawaii's first 1,000-yard rusher since June Jones installed the run-and-shoot offense in 1999, Green is a physical runner with plus size (6'0/219) and great hands.

Nevada TE Virgil Green

A jacked-up 6'3/248, Green has shot to No. 5 among draft-eligible tight ends in NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock's latest rankings. Expected to "come real close" to the 2006 Combine numbers posted by Vernon Davis, Green averaged 14.71 yards per reception as a senior.

Lehigh G/T Will Rackley

McShay has jumped on the Rackley bandwagon started by Mayock months ago, and the FCS first-team All-American is now widely seen as a future starter by the draftnik community. Rackley started 40 straight games as Lehigh's left tackle. At 6'3/307, he projects as an NFL guard.

USC TE Jordan Cameron

Essentially a poor man's version of Jimmy Graham last year, Cameron played basketball at Brigham Young and Southern Cal before taking up football full time for the Trojans. Another basketball player-turned-footballer at the Combine will be Julius Thomas from Portland State.

[SIZE=+1]Workout Wonders[/SIZE]

Pitt WR Jonathan Baldwin

Baldwin is targeting a forty time in the 4.3s, 41-inch vertical leap, and 20-plus repetitions of 225 pounds on the bench press. Interviews may be the biggest obstacle for the college malcontent Baldwin, but he's likely to put a dent in stop watches. At a listed 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds.

Nevada DE Dontay Moch

Depending on which scout you ask, Moch was timed anywhere from 4.19 to 4.28 at Nevada's Junior Day last year. Size is going to be an issue for the 6'1/227-pound pass rusher, but speed and production isn't. Moch paced the Wolfpack in sacks (8.5) and tackles for loss (22) in 2010.

Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams

At a rocked-up 5'10/202 (listed), Williams recently ran a 4.41 forty with a 1.54 ten-yard split, the latter time indicating a player's short-area speed. Still just 20 years old, Williams lost his starting job as a sophomore after a monster freshman year, so he'll be on the spot in Indianapolis.

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Colorado LT Nate Solder

Solder has on record a 4.88 forty time and 32-inch vertical, both outstanding measurables for a 6'8/314-pound tackle. He also has seven percent body fat. Possessing nearly 35-inch arms, Solder will be the most athletic, physically imposing lineman at this year's Combine.

Missouri DE Aldon Smith

With a pterodactyl-like wingspan, Smith has drawn comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul, Simeon Rice, and Jevon Kearse as a freakishly built pass rusher. "If his arms are under 35 inches," recently wrote Wes Bunting of the National Football Post, "I'll come away shocked." Smith could also threaten the 4.4s at 6'5/260.

[SIZE=+1]Deep Quarterback Class[/SIZE]

Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Jake Locker are the draft's highest-profile quarterbacks, but the position runs deep. Ryan Mallett (Arkansas), Christian Ponder (Florida State), and Andy Dalton (TCU) are day-two prospects, while Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) and Ricky Stanzi (Iowa) have risen swiftly since standout Senior Bowl weeks. Whereas the NFL has averaged 5.2 QBs drafted in the first three rounds over the last decade, as many as eight look likely to go in those frames this year. Other signal callers likely to be selected in April: Greg McElroy (Alabama), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech), and Pat Devlin (Delaware). And all of them will be in Indianapolis.

QBs capable of helping themselves at the Combine include Kaepernick and Locker with big arms and sub-4.5 wheels, and Ponder, Stanzi, and Dalton with short to intermediate accuracy in throwing drills. Mallett must interview well, because he's been red flagged for an array of off-field and leadership concerns, including alleged drug use. Already highly rated, Gabbert and Newton may elect against throwing for scouts.

[SIZE=+1]Speed to Burn[/SIZE]

Abilene Christian WR Edmund Gates

Gates is Todd McShay's pick to run the fastest forty at the Combine, and the D-II product was timed in the low 4.4s as a college junior. The cousin of Bengals tailback Bernard Scott, Gates also boasts plenty of "game speed," graduating with an 18.26 career yards-per-catch average.

New Mexico State CB Davon House

If House is fully recovered from the ankle injury that prevented him from practicing all last season, he'll be a sleeper for the best forty among defensive backs. A burner with ball skills, the lithe, 6'0/182-pound four-year starter intercepted 11 career passes, returning three of them to the House.

Maryland WR Torrey Smith

Smith has also been mentioned by McShay as a likely star in straight-line speed drills, and his prediction is backed up by Mike Mayock. "He's a guy that's going to run 4.35 or 4.38," said Mayock, calling Smith "a guy that flies." Smith twice reset the ACC single-season kickoff return yardage record on top of being a first-team all-conference wideout.

Miami CB Demarcus Van Dyke

Van Dyke lost his starting job as a senior, but that doesn't mean he can't run. "D.V.D." doubled as a track star for the Canes, and training mate Torrey Smith predicts Van Dyke will run the fastest forty at the Combine. "I'm fast, but not 4.2 fast," tweeted Smith recently. "That's moving."

Troy WR Jerrel Jernigan

Jernigan averaged "only" 11.94 career yards per reception playing the slot in Troy's spread offense, but his highlight reels reveal an absolute speed demon. Percy Harvin-like in terms of versatility, Jernigan averaged 23.58 yards per kick return, 8.27 on punts, and 6.28 career yards per carry.

[SIZE=+1]Something to Prove[/SIZE]

Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara

Amukamara is widely considered the second best corner in the draft, but Bunting is beating the drum for a move to free safety. The senior's straight-line speed has been a topic of debate since Amukamara was torched for 157 yards and two TDs on five receptions by Oklahoma State third-year sophomore Justin Blackmon last October.

Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure

Leshoure's career 6.03 yards-per-carry average is the most impressive in this year's draft class, but there's plenty of evaluation work to do on the one-year starter. How athletic is he? What's his forty time? Leshoure has drawn comparisons ranging from LeGarrette Blount to Ryan Mathews.

Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn

Clayborn racked up 20 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks as a junior, only to fall to 7.0 and 3.5, respectively, as a senior. What happened? Did Clayborn "play to not get injured," as at least one scout has suggested? The St. Louis native needs to exhibit explosiveness in Combine drills.

North Carolina WR Greg Little

Like so many members of the Tar Heels' 2010 roster, Little was suspended for the entire season after accepting gifts from a sports agent. Entering the draft with only 13 starts and 969 receiving yards on his college resume, Little must interview well and show he's been staying in shape.

Michigan State LB Greg Jones

Four-year starter. Two-time first-team All American. Third most tackles in Michigan State history. 46.5 career tackles for loss. 16.5 sacks. Jones is one of the most decorated college players eligible for the draft, but questions about his speed and down-to-down effort are prevalent.

Georgia DE/LB Justin Houston

Houston demonstrated incredible off-the-edge burst as a 4-3 pass rusher at Georgia, but draftniks are wary of his ability to translate those traits into a 3-4 defense. Houston needs to show well in coverage drills at the Combine, as well as an explosive "get off" from a two-point stance.

Clemson SS DeAndre McDaniel

McDaniel's 15 career picks rank impressively high among draft-eligible defensive backs, but the converted linebacker's cover skills have come under fire. In addition to exhibiting straight-line speed, it's up to McDaniel to show he can back pedal and fluidly flip his hips in the speed-turn drill.

LSU DT Drake Nevis

How big is he? Nevis was listed at 6'2/285 by LSU, but some contend that the three-technique prospect will report to Indy shorter and lighter. Though Nevis was one of the nation's top interior pass rushers last season, the weigh-in will be his tallest hurdle toward earning a day-two grade.

Louisville RB Bilal Powell

You wouldn't know Powell faces scrutiny about his speed by glancing at his 6.14 yards-per-carry average as a senior, but the bruising power back is not considered a homerun hitter. Powell also presents "one-year wonder" concerns. He wasn't anywhere near the NFL draft radar before 2010.

Penn State RB Evan Royster

Royster enjoyed a productive career in Happy Valley, but ranks 30th on Bunting's running back big board, behind the likes of Navy QB Ricky Dobbs. Not helping Royster are the failures of fellow PSU backs Tony Hunt, Curtis Enis, Ki-Jana Carter, and Blair Thomas over the past few decades.

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[SIZE=+1]All in the Family[/SIZE]

Boston College RT Rich Lapham - Nephew of former Bengals G Dave Lapham
Alabama RB Mark Ingram - Son of former Giants WR Mark Ingram
UConn LB Greg Lloyd - Son of former Steelers LB Greg Lloyd
Oregon LB Casey Matthews - Brother of current Packers LB Clay Matthews
Florida G/C Mike Pouncey - Twin brother of current Steelers C Maurkice Pouncey
Penn State G/C Stefen Wisniewski - Nephew of former Raiders G Steve Wisniewski
Ohio State LB Brian Rolle - Cousin of current Giants S Antrel Rolle
Kentucky WR Randall Cobb - Cousin of former Chargers TE Shannon Mitchell

[SIZE=+1]20 Key Medical Concerns[/SIZE]

Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers - Played through a partial meniscus tear late in the college season and had the knee scoped sometime in January. He's tentatively expected to run at the Combine.

Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph - On October 15, underwent season-ending surgery on his right hamstring. He'll be available for inspection at the Combine, but won't run before the Irish's April 7 Pro Day.

North Carolina DE Robert Quinn - Had a benign tumor removed from his brain as a high school senior. Quinn has long since been medically cleared, but one report over the weekend claimed NFL teams are "really getting scared off" by the four-year-old surgery.

USC OT Tyron Smith - Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in January after playing through the injury down the stretch. Smith is expected to wait for USC's March 30 Pro Day to run for scouts.

Ohio State DE Cameron Heyward - Heyward underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in early- to mid-January. He should be able to run, jump, and perform agility drills in Indianapolis.

Boston College LB Mark Herzlich - Overcame Ewing's Sarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer, as a college junior. Herzlich had a rod inserted into his left leg during chemotherapy, however, and struggled in coverage as a senior. He can expect plenty of poking and prodding.

North Carolina LB Bruce Carter - Tore his left ACL on November 20 and had reconstructive knee surgery on December 14. Carter will attend the Combine only to weigh in and meet with teams.

Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling - Dowling skipped the Senior Bowl to rehab hamstring, ankle, and knee injuries suffered during a disappointing senior year. His status for the Combine is questionable.

Southern Miss WR DeAndre Brown - Suffered a compound tibia and fibula fracture in the 2008 New Orleans Bowl, and last year missed seven games with an injury coach Larry Fedora called a "lower leg strain," but did not detail further. Agent Bus Cook insists Brown can run a 4.4 in Indy.

Miami RB Graig Cooper - Tore his ACL in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl and lost his starting job as a senior. Also missed three games in 2010 with a high ankle sprain. Cooper participated in January's Senior Bowl, but whether he's truly 100 percent is unclear.

Villanova T/G Ben Ijalana - Missed the Senior Bowl due to "double hernia surgery" after playing the last six games of his college career with the injury. He's expected to be OK for the Combine.

Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas - Sat out January's Senior Bowl with a hamstring injury, the extent of which was unknown. Thomas should be 100 percent by now.

Eastern Washington RB Taiwan Jones - In December, underwent surgery to repair a fractured fifth metatarsal in his left foot. Jones also injured both shoulders in college, had a sports hernia, and broke his fibula. The small-schooler will wait for Hawaii's March 31 Pro Day to run for scouts.

Mississippi State DE Kentrell Lockett - Applying for a sixth year of college eligibility after tearing his left ACL on September 25. Lockett is also believed to be dealing with a heart condition.

Purdue WR Keith Smith - Tore his right ACL and MCL on September 11, and didn't have surgery until October 18. Like Lockett, Smith is petitioning the NCAA for a sixth year of eligibility.

Utah State CB Curtis Marsh - Missed the Senior Bowl with a recurring hamstring injury. A former running back, Marsh should be ready to participate in all drills at the Combine.

Oregon State DT Stephen Paea - Tore his right meniscus at the Senior Bowl and had the knee scoped on January 27. Paea is considered questionable to perform lower-body drills in Indy.

Ohio State CB Chimdi Chekwa - Severely dislocated his right wrist in January's Sugar Bowl and required surgery. Also a track star at OSU, Chekwa should be able to run at the Combine.

Pittsburgh DE Greg Romeus - Tore his right ACL on November 11 after returning from September surgery to repair a disc in his back. Romeus may spend his first NFL season on injured reserve.

North Carolina FS Deunta Williams - Fractured his right fibula at the ankle joint in the Music City Bowl and had surgery on January 4. Williams is questionable to work out before the NFL draft.

[SIZE=+1]Bigguns[/SIZE]

TCU T/G Marcus Cannon

Cannon did not participate in any pre-draft all-star games, ostensibly because he's focused on conditioning for the Combine. Listed at 6'6/350, the Horned Frogs' three-year starting tackle projects to kick inside in the pros. Cannon was a third-team All-American selection as a senior left tackle, and also earned all-conference track and field honors as a shot putter.

North Carolina DT Marvin Austin

After being suspended and kicked out of school for accepting gifts from an agent, Austin helped himself by reporting to the East-West Shrine Game in stellar shape and dominating practices. Still, the 6'2/312-pound defensive tackle's weight remains a concern without oversight from a college coaching staff for the last year. Austin will also be sized up heavily in interviews.

Mississippi State LT Derek Sherrod

Nate Solder might be the tallest premier tackle prospect, but Sherrod boasts the most impressive wingspan. At 6'6/312, the impressively built All-SEC first-teamer has 35 1/2-inch arms, 11-inch catcher mitts for hands, and measures 84 inches from fingertip to fingertip. On the field, Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders has observed that Sherrod "may be the most consistent on a play-to-play basis ... of all the tackles in the 2011 draft class."

Hampton DL Kenrick Ellis

Oddly listed at 6'3/280, Ellis showed up to the East-West Shrine at 6-foot-5 and 336 pounds. Ellis can't afford to report much heavier to the Combine, although interviews may be his biggest test. He was dismissed from South Carolina for repeated violations of team and university policy early in his college career, before exploding for 37.5 tackles for loss in three years at Hampton.

Georgia RT Josh Davis

An absolute behemoth, Davis outdoes even Sherrod with an 86-inch wingspan, nearly 11-inch hands, and 36-inch arms at 6'7/305. Unfortunately, Davis garnered no postseason All-SEC recognition from the coaches or media. Cue the "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane."

[SIZE=+1]Draft Debates[/SIZE]

Marcell Dareus vs. Nick Fairley

When future first-ballot Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp says something about the position he patented, we should probably listen. And Sapp believes Dareus is the best "three-technique" tackle prospect in the draft. Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy were compared similarly during last year's pre-draft process. Fairley is currently the favorite to be drafted first overall, but Dareus could make up ground with a stronger performance in Indianapolis.

Patrick Peterson vs. Prince Amukamara

Both of this year's top cornerbacks are listed at 6-foot-1 and over 200 pounds, and have been suggested as candidates to move to safety. Either the corners aren't top prospects at all, or we're thinking too much. Amukamara is said to possess superior natural cover skills, while Peterson has better speed, versatility, and made more big plays over the course of his college career.

A.J. Green vs. Julio Jones

At least one scout prefers Jones to Green, which isn't the majority but gives us something to ponder. Because Jones is better after the catch and as a downfield blocker, will he appeal more to power-running teams that use West Coast-style offenses? We're likely to see a little, if not a lot, of separation this week and weekend. Green should run much, much faster than Jones.

Left Offensive Tackles

Ask five draftniks to name the best left tackle prospect, and you might get five different answers. Mayock, Rob Rang, and Chad Reuter believe it's Anthony Castonzo. Bunting and Tony Pauline say Tyron Smith. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay? Nate Solder. Derek Sherrod is Doug Farrar's favorite. Combine workouts don't separate offensive linemen because they won't actually be blocking anyone, but they do help us learn more about each player.

Jeremy Beal

Combine sustained production with durability, and Beal compares favorably to every pass rusher in this draft save Von Miller and Ryan Kerrigan. The fifth-year senior is a mediocre to below-average athlete, however, which theoretically limits his upside. Pro personnel evaluators will have to determine how far Beal's non-stop motor will get him at the next level. He racked up 58.5 tackles for loss, 29 sacks, and 10 forced fumbles in college.

Allen Bailey

The anti-Beal, Bailey's production never matched his talent as a 6'3/278-pound athletic phenom. Bailey's career totals: 31 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, and two forced fumbles. The list of Miami Hurricanes who underachieved in college is long, as is the list of ex-Canes who became better under stronger tutelage from NFL coaching staffs. Unlike Beal, Bailey is a possible top-32 pick based on potential. If we're looking at college resumes, Beal beats out Bailey every which way.

[SIZE=+1]Combine Coverage Twitter Follows[/SIZE]

Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) and myself (@EvanSilva) will handle Rotoworld's Combine coverage all week. Check these guys out for the next best draft-related tweets on the internets:

Rob Rang of CBS Sports: @RobRang
Adam Caplan of FOX Sports: @caplannfl
Aaron Aloysius of Draft Breakdown: @AaronAloysius
Lance Zierlein of The Sideline View: @ZReportDraft
Michael Schottey of Draft Tek: @Schottey
Chad Reuter of CBS Sports: @ChadReuter
Russ Lande of Sporting News: @RussLande
Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders: @FO_DougFarrar
Tony Pauline of SI.com: @TonyPauline
Shane P. Hallam of Draft Countdown: @ShanePHallam
Wes Bunting of National Football Post: @WesBunting

 

[HacheMan]

2011 Keeper Rankings
Welcome to the fifth-annual Top-50 keepers spectacular. A few thoughts before we get to the proceedings:

1. We know that change happens quickly in the NFL. As a general rule, quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends offer more year-to-year stability than running backs. This offseason is a bit of an anamoly in keeper leagues, however, with a host of young runners ascending to stardom while sending last decade's feature backs into fantasy obscurity. As a matter of fact, the top eight fantasy backs (and 12 of the top 13) from 2010 will begin next season under 26 years of age. A competitive keeper team will have at least one -- and ideally two -- of these dynamic young bell cows as nucleus players.

2. The key to fantasy football success will always be acquiring as many difference-makers as possible. As we pointed out last year, roughly half of the Top-10 at any position will repeat their performance from the previous year. Any player can post a good or even great season, but it's the reliable studs that produce year-in and year-out. These players must be valued highly even if a flavor-of-the-month might post better stats in a best-case scenario the year before (i.e. Peyton Hillis).

3. These rankings are geared toward short-term keeper leagues where owners are generally keeping just a handful of players from year-to-year. While keeper leagues value stability more than redraft leagues, they also value short-term production more than Dynasty formats. Rotoworld's Dynasty ranks (QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs) necessarily emphasize talent over situation while projecting value beyond the next . Keeper rankings, on the other hand, must value talent and situation equally while focusing primarily on the upcoming season and secondarily on the long view.

4. I thought this was interesting: In the five years Rotoworld has produced the Top-50 keeper list, the average positional breakdown is seven quarterbacks, 23.6 running backs, 17 wide receivers, and 2.4 tight ends. This year's list is composed of seven quarterbacks, 23 running backs, 17 wide receivers, and three tight ends.

5. This weekend's prospect Combine is a handy reminder that player values are anything but static even when there are no games being played. Depending on the pace of labor talks, free agency and trading windows may be pushed into the summer. Regardless of this year's iffy schedule, those issues along with the draft and OTAs / training camp will keep player values fluctuating right up to the start of the fantasy drafts in August.

Will Brandon Jacobs rebound to take a bigger bite out of Ahmad Bradshaw's value in 2011? Will Knowshon Moreno be mired in a committee attack? Will the Bucs pair LeGarrette Blount with a dynamic young pass-catching back? If you keep your ear to the ground by following the Rotoworld news page, you will be prepared when it's time to finalize your keeper selections.

These keeper rankings assume the scoring is for a standard non-PPR league. PPR leaguers should make the necessary adjustments on receivers and pass-catching backs.

On to the near misses!

Editor's Note: For offseason NFL news and analysis, follow @ChrisWesseling, @EvanSilva, @AdamLevitan, and @Rotoworld_FB on Twitter.

[SIZE=+1]Just Missed[/SIZE]
Previous ranks in parentheses

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (35): If you're going to keep a QB, he has to be a weekly advantage. Big Ben's a great quarterback, but there's still very little separating him from Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and even Kyle Orton on a weekly basis.

Matt Schaub, Texans (25): With Arian Foster taking on a bigger role, Schaub fell to 13th in fantasy points per week even with four straight 300-yard performances to close out December.

Josh Freeman, Buccaneers: On the doorstep, but Freeman was a nothing more than a consistent QB2 all season long until a five-touchdown explosion in Week 16.

Matt Ryan, Falcons: Could make the leap to fantasy stalwart any year now, but he desperately needs a Roddy White sidekick with Tony Gonzalez no longer a threat.

Joe Flacco, Ravens: Like Ryan, he's already on the brink of stardom even with the slowest collection of receivers in the league. Expect GM Ozzie Newsome to deliver a downfield playmaker or two by summertime.

Dallas Clark, Colts (43): Turning 32 in June, his keeper value is starting slip.

Jason Witten, Cowboys (47): Last season's No. 1 fantasy tight end in a down year for the position. Witten owes a great deal of his success to Tony Romo's injury, increasing his fantasy points by almost five per week with Jon Kitna.

Mike Williams, Buccaneers: Impressive rookie season. Now let's see him do it again before we put him in with the cream of the crop.

Brandon Lloyd, Broncos: Josh McDaniels was the pass-heaviest play-caller in the league the past two years, running just over 40 percent of the time. Lloyd isn't going to come close to repeating his break-out year success under John Fox and possibly Tim Tebow.

Wes Welker, Patriots: The Slot Machine belongs in the Top-50 in PPR leagues, but he falls outside the WR1 category in standard scoring formats.

The Next 10: Percy Harvin, Steve Johnson, Austin Collie, Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Michael Crabtree, Jimmy Graham, Fred Jackson, Ryan Torain

[SIZE=+1]Falling off the List[/SIZE]
Ranking from last two seasons in parentheses

Randy Moss, Free Agent (22, 19): A man without a team after a 2010 season that Dr. Seuss would describe as a debaculous fiasco. I'm not ready to write him off entirely, but the statistics as well as the game film suggest he couldn't get open last year.

Cedric Benson, Bengals (23): Managed just 3.5 yards per carry for the third time in the past four years. Like Moss, he doesn't have a team.

Ryan Grant, Packers (27, 34): It looks like he'll avoid the chopping block in Green Bay this offseason, but James Starks looms as a committee partner -- if not job stealer.

Steve Smith, Panthers (31, 16): I'd love to see what he could do with a QB like Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. For right now, though, it's Jimmy Clausen slated to misfire to Smith.

Joseph Addai, Colts (37, 30): Far from a lock to return to the comfort of the Colts offense after an injury-marred season.

Santonio Holmes, Jets (38): One bad toke away from another suspension, not to mention Mark Sanchez is no Ben Roethlisberger.

Sidney Rice, Vikings (39): The recent "arthritic hip" report is awfully shaky, but that doesn't change the fact that Rice is a red-flag risk with no QB and two of the past three seasons ruined by injuries.

Steve Smith, Giants (40): Coming off serious microfracture surgery, Smith's knee doesn't have a chance to be back to normal by Week 1. He has to find a team first.

Beanie Wells, Cardinals (42): Beanie's balky knee held him back in 2010. While he remains a fine speculative "buy" in Dynasty circles, he's too risky to keep as a high-end RB2 in smaller leagues.

Pierre Thomas, Saints (45, 50): Passed up his shot at long-term security last year by over-estimating his value. Now he's a major injury risk looking for a starting job.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (46, 26): A timeshare back the past two years, Brown isn't going to land a feature-back job coming off 3.7 yards per carry in 2010.

Chad Ochocinco, Bengals (49, 42): Hasn't produced consistent WR1 numbers since 2007. Who wants to gamble on a 33-year-old receiver likely to be joining a new team?

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[SIZE=+1]Top 50 Keepers[/SIZE]

50. Dez Bryant, Cowboys: A top-five physical talent at wide receiver and already emerging as the Cowboys' best offensive player before his season-ending leg fracture. The breakout is coming.

49. Vernon Davis, 49ers (44): After two straight top-three fantasy finishes, the only question is quarterback. Davis is one of just a handful of weekly advantages at the tight-end position.

48. Felix Jones, Cowboys (50): Finally entrenched as the starter, but will he be good for 15-20 touches per game after shedding the extra bulk he added last year? Still among the biggest injury-risks going.

47. Kenny Britt, Titans: Britt isn't without risk considering his immaturity and murky QB situation, but his top-tier fantasy ceiling is well worth a roll of the dice.

46. Jermichael Finley, Packers: Even after a lost season, Finley is a fine keeper with a shot to be the NFL's top tight end over the next decade.

45. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles: Maclin has 1,726 yards and 14 TDs through two seasons compared to Hakeem Nicks' 1,842 yards and 17 TDs. Maclin doesn't carry nearly the same injury risk, either.

44. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (NR, 44): We're reaching broken-record status on the Chiefs' mid-season hot streak, but it's important to note that Bowe's seven-game streak that produced 13 TDs came against the absolute dregs of NFL pass defenses. He's not going to come close to 15 scores next season.

43. Marques Colston, Saints (32, 32): Colston has been a picture of borderline WR1 consistency, but he's also coming off his fifth and sixth known surgeries since March of 2008.

42. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers: A top-12 fantasy back over the final five weeks, Blount will rise on this list if he can nail down goal-like work and occasional passing-down duty.

41. Shonn Greene, Jets (48): The fantasy world handed Greene the starting job prematurely last offseason. After LaDainian Tomlinson's second-half fade, there should be no doubt this time around. I don't see elite talent from Greene, but he should be a solid RB2 as the Jets' early-down back.

40. Peyton Hillis, Browns: New coach Pat Shurmur is already talking up a "tandem" backfield with Montario Hardesty returning from ACL surgery. Hillis won't sniff 13 TDs, 61 receptions, and 1,500+ yards again.

39. Antonio Gates, Chargers (41, 46): Before a painful plantar fascia injury, Gates had been the first-half fantasy MVP, averaging 5.0 more points per week than the next closest tight end. The injury will heal with rest, so Gates should be

38. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (20): Ranked 12th in fantasy points in 2008 and 10th in 2009 before contract squabbles laid waste to his 2010 season. As the Bolts' franchise player, he should bounce back to the top-ten this year.

37. Jahvid Best, Lions: If you don't believe turf toes can savage a back's effectiveness, Darren McFadden's early career is instructive. Don't let the twin turf-toe injuries throw you off the scent on Best. He's still the same back who dropped 232 yards and three TDs on the Eagles in Week 2.

36. Ryan Mathews, Chargers: A great young back to own in the Chargers' high-scoring offense, Mathews is a breakout candidate with a greater share of the backfield pie in 2011. Mike Tolbert looms as a touchdown vulture or even a committee partner should Mathews stumble.

35. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (28): John Fox has so many holes to fill that DeAngelo Williams is a luxury he can't afford. It's clear, however, that Moreno will have company in the backfield after a second straight season of nagging injuries.

34. Mike Wallace, Steelers: Leap-frogged Hines Ward as Ben Roethlisberger's go-to receiver, leading the NFL in receiving yards in the second half of the season.

33. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: The ongoing foot/ankle injuries aren't a great sign for long-term RB1 value, nor is Tom Coughlin's proclamation that Brandon Jacobs needs more carries in 2011.

32. Tom Brady, Patriots (34, 36): In the second-best season of his career, Brady finished "only" sixth in fantasy points among QBs.

31. DeSean Jackson, Eagles (26): Jackson is an ideal keeper due to his unique talent, but he can't go a week without hitting the injury report.

 

[HacheMan]

Top 30 Keepers for 2011
In Part I of the Top-50 keepers, we covered the nature of keeper leagues, the near misses, the fallers, and players 31-50. Let's move on to the top 30 keepers.

[SIZE=+1]Top 30 Keepers[/SIZE]
Rank from the previous two seasons (2010, 2009) in parentheses.

30. Michael Turner, Falcons (8, 8): I'd rather sell a year early than hold on a year too long. Turner just turned 29 years old, and his YPC dropped off to 3.6 over the final six games of the season.

29. Reggie Wayne, Colts (12, 23): The decline is on. Wayne's downfield effectiveness and yards per reception dropped for the fifth straight season. With Austin Collie and Dallas Clark banged up and Pierre Garcon underwhelming, Wayne still managed a seventh-place fantasy finish. The arrow is pointing down for 2011.

28. Greg Jennings, Packers (30, 25): Packers coaches game-planned to get the ball in Jennings' hands after a slow start, but there's no escaping the fact that his production spike coincided with Jermichael Finley's season-ending injury. In the five early-season games with Finley, Jennings averaged 2.8 receptions and 36.6 yards. The rest of the way without Finley, Jennings averaged 5.5 receptions and 92.3 yards. Jennings still makes for a fine keeper, but his numbers will decline at least slightly next season.

27. Philip Rivers, Chargers (33, 43): Coming off a career year with a patchwork receiving corps. Rivers should have no problem repeating his fourth-place fantasy finish with Antonio Gates back healthy and Vincent Jackson returning for 16 games.

26. Tony Romo, Cowboys (29, 29): Is Romo an elite QB? He's fifth among active starters in completion percentage (64.1), first in passing TD percentage (5.7), first in yards per attempt (8.00), and third in passer rating (95.5). Regardless of reputation, it's clear that Romo is a premier passer. Throw in arguably the most dynamic pair of receivers in the NFL, an elite tight end, and a fine pass-catching back, and Romo is poised for a career-year in 2011.

25. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (21, 15): Marshall's 2010 numbers were down for two reasons: 1. The Week 11-13 hamstring injury and 2. Chad Henne was brutal in the red zone. I'm not buying GM Jeff Ireland's public backing of Henne the past few weeks. The Dolphins will have a new starter come September.

24. Miles Austin, Cowboys (19): Is there a better offseason trade target in keeper leagues? Austin averaged 6.6 catches and 97.2 yards with Tony Romo under center the first five games of last season. After Romo's shoulder injury, those numbers plummeted to just 3.2 catches for 50.4 yards.

23. DeAngelo Williams, Free Agent (18, 14): Most likely to sign Williams: Miami Dolphins. We've seen the Broncos, Saints, and Colts mentioned as possibilities as well. Denver has too many holes to break the bank on a backfield partner for Knowshon Moreno. Indy and NOLA use a plug 'n' play approach in the backfield, unwilling to make a big free agency splash. Keep an eye out for the Redskins and Bengals as wildcards.

22. Steven Jackson, Rams (6, 4): Jackson saw a sharp decline in effectiveness in 2010, dropping to 3.7 YPC while finishing in the bottom quarter of metrics compiled by Pro Football Focus as well as Football Outsiders. Particularly worrisome is that he averaged just 3.38 yards per on 127 carries from Week 12 on. S-Jax should see an uptick in PPR value with pass-heavy coordinator Josh McDaniels calling plays, but that will be offset if the Rams draft a dangerous change-of-pace.

21. Hakeem Nicks, Giants: Nicks is a true phenom, but owners can't count on 16 games in 2011 after he's battled wrist, leg, ankle, hamstring, knee, and multiple toe injuries in his first two seasons.

20. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (15, 11): Fitz's talent and track record merit a higher ranking, but QB questions persist. Marc Bulger would hardly be a panacea, and this year's rookie crop isn't ready to step in from Day One.

19. Frank Gore, 49ers (5, 6): Exiting his prime at age 28, coming off a fractured hip, and entering the final year of his contract. Plenty of re-draft value, but it's hard to project RB1 production beyond 2011.

18. Peyton Manning, Colts (9, 21): Way too early to worry about a decline phase for the best statistical QB in NFL history. If Austin Collie stays concussion free, Manning could have the best collection of receivers since his magical 2004 season.

17. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (3, 2): If not for the meniscus surgery, Jones-Drew would flirt with the top-five. MJD revealed in January that his left knee was "bone-on-bone" by the end of the season. Torry Holt and Antonio Bryant never captured pre-injury form after bone-on-bone conditions related to meniscus injuries.

16. Drew Brees, Saints (13, 20): Brees' interceptions sky-rocketed while playing through a sprained MCL, but he still finished an impressive third in fantasy points and passing yards and second in touchdowns. Aided by the dome-field advantage, Brees has been a top-five fantasy QB in each of the past five seasons.

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15. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (36, 39): Stewart is ranked as if DeAngelo Williams, the best running back on the market, will not return to Carolina. In nine starts with Williams sidelined the past two seasons, Stewart has averaged 111.3 yards on 19.8 carries (5.6 yards per attempt).

14. Roddy White, Falcons (24, 23): White has finished sixth, seventh, and third the past three years among wide receivers, averaging 96 receptions, 1,308 yards, and 9.3 TDs. He's ranked as the third receiver here.

13. Matt Forte, Bears (17, 3): Forte may not be the top-five back he was projected to be after a strong rookie season, but we now know his second-year struggles were all knee injury and offensive line. Forte is fifth in the league in yards from scrimmage the past three years, trailing only Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.

12. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers (14): Coach Mike Tomlin once said he'd run Willie Paker until the wheels came off, and he's taking the same approach with Mendenhall. The second-year starter finished seventh in fantasy points, showing his best burst of the season in the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl. The lone missing ingredient for top-tier fantasy success is an uptick in receptions. With Mewelde Moore expected to leave, that could change in 2011.

11. Darren McFadden, Raiders (NR, 48): McFadden led the NFL with 14 carries of 20-plus yards, ranked fourth in rushing yards per game, was second only to Arian Foster is yards from scrimmage per game, and finished first among all backs in yards per reception. On the flip side, he's still never played more than 13 games in a season.

10. Calvin Johnson, Lions (16, 12): Keeper leaguers have to love a QB-proof wide receiver. Johnson now owns two of the franchise's three seasons with at least 75 receptions, 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns -- and he's done it under six different quarterbacks, including the likes of Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, and Drew Stanton.

9. Andre Johnson, Texans (7, 9): If not for a nearly season-long ankle injury, costing him three full games, Johnson would have become the first receiver in NFL history with three consecutive 1,500-yard seasons. He's led the NFL in receiving yards per game in three of the past four seasons. The fourth season was actually his career-high in receiving yards.

8. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (11, 31): Rodgers' fantasy finishes the past three seasons: third, first, and second. Rodgers matched Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in 2010 despite missing one game and his top receiving threat for the majority of the season. The Super Bowl MVP played his best ball of the season after a Week 15 concussion, throwing up a passer rating north of 110 the rest of the way.

7. LeSean McCoy, Eagles: It's no real shocker that McCoy filled Brian Westbrook's wide shoes as an elite fantasy option in PPR leagues. The big surprise was the Michael Vick effect, allowing McCoy to excel as the best back in the NFL facing a "loaded box" in short-yardage and obvious run situations. McCoy finished in the top four in rushing yards, touchdowns and attempts per first down in those situations while also excelling at running out the clock. The good times will roll in 2011 with Vick back under center.

6. Ray Rice, Ravens (4): With little help from his front line or passing attack, Rice finished third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage while playing through an early-season knee injury. From a fantasy standpoint, Rice figures to benefit greatly from the inevitable release of Willis McGahee. Keep in mind that Rice averaged 22.5 TDs in his final two seasons at Rutgers. There's no question he can excel as a goal-line back.

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs (10): The Chiefs are talking up Dexter McCluster as a third-down specialist, and Thomas Jones remains a threat at the goal-line. It just doesn't matter. As one of the uniquely talented backs in the league, Charles is too good to keep off the field. He finished fourth in fantasy points last year, and he's going to touch the ball on a more consistent basis in 2011.

4. Arian Foster, Texans: Let's dispense with the alleged concerns right out of the box. Ben Tate isn't a threat to Foster's job after the breakout star led the league in rushing yards, touchdowns, yards from scrimmage, and first downs. The recent knee scope couldn't be more minor, keeping him sidelined just three weeks. Coach Gary Kubiak and zone-blocking O-Line guru Rick Dennison return for at least one more season, leaving all the ingredients in place for a repeat performance.

3. Chris Johnson, Titans (1, 5): The bar is set unreasonably high when 1,600 yards, a dozen TDs, and a fifth-place fantasy finish are widely seen as a disappointing season. CJ2K has averaged a robust 120 yards and 0.8 TDs per game since entering the league. New coordinator Chris Palmer promises a run-heavy attack, targeting a 35:30 per game run-to-pass ratio in 2011. Barring injury, Johnson's floor is 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (2, 1): Consistency and reliability. Peterson has been a top-two Rotoworld keeper and a top-three fantasy performer every year he's been in the league. He's never had a season under double-digit TDs or 100 total yards per game.

1. Michael Vick, Eagles: It's not just that you get a quarterback and a running back in one package. Or that he averaged five more points per week than any other player. Or even that he put the trophy on the mantle for fantasy owners in 2010. It's also that his situation remains virtually unchanged for 2011, with DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Shady McCoy, and Brent Celek at his disposal. The combination of QB talent and offensive weapons is unparalleled.

 

[HacheMan]

2011 Combine Risers & Fallers
The Scouting Combine generates more interest every offseason. It was an especially publicized event this year because the NFL draft and its related events are the only sure things with no new Collective Bargaining Agreement on the horizon.

We previewed the six-day affair last week, and successfully pinpointed a number of workout wonders like Nevada DE Dontay Moch, Abilene Christian WR Edmund Gates, and Miami CB Demarcus Van Dyke, the latter of whom ran the fastest forty time in Indianapolis.

Now, let's have a look at risers and fallers from the 2011 Combine.

[SIZE=+1]Combine's Biggest Risers[/SIZE]

1. Florida State QB Christian Ponder

After undergoing three throwing-arm surgeries in his final two college seasons, Ponder's biggest pre-draft objectives were clear: stay healthy and pass medicals. He's done both, acing physicals at the Senior Bowl and Combine amidst lengthy stints on the MRI machine, and turning in terrific passing-drill performances. In Indianapolis, the consensus was that Ponder had the most accurate throwing session of any signal caller inside Lucas Oil Stadium. The ideal West Coast quarterback, Ponder emerges from the six-day affair gaining steam as a potential first-round pick.

Ponder's Combine measurables: 6'2/229, 10 1/4" hands, 4.65 forty, 34" vertical

2. Alabama DT Marcell Dareus

Last week, we discussed Dareus' competition with Nick Fairley to be the first defensive tackle drafted. Coming out of the Combine, Dareus has emerged as the clear favorite. The former 3-4 college defensive end ran a 1.66 ten-yard split to best Dareus' time by a full tenth of a second, doing it with 28 more pounds on his frame than his SEC adversary. While Fairley opted out of the bench press altogether, Dareus hoisted 225 pounds 24 times with nearly 34-inch arms. Dareus is considered to possess a better motor and technique than Fairley, showed more up-field burst in Indy, and projects as a significantly superior run stopper. Dareus will go to Denver in our next mock draft.

More Dareus measurables: 6'3 1/2", 319 pounds, 4.93 forty, 10 1/8" hands, 27" vertical

3. Alabama WR Julio Jones

Jones weighed in an inch shorter than his 6-foot-4 listing, but showed incredible explosiveness on the track. At 220 pounds, Jones ran 4.39 to rank third among receivers, and his 11'3" broad jump lapped the wideout field with only small-school flyer Edmund Gates (10'11") coming close. Jones also showed his trademark toughness, participating in all Combine drills on a broken foot. He needs surgery to repair the fracture, but has probably locked himself into the top-ten picks.

More Jones measurables: 33 3/4" arms, 9 3/4" hands, 17 reps of 225, 38 1/2" vertical

4. Miami (FL) WR Leonard Hankerson

When receivers lined up for their forty-yard dashes Saturday morning, NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock called Hankerson's "the most important time of the week." The 6-foot-2, 209-pound prospect proceeded to run the fourth fastest forty among wide receivers in Indianapolis, clocking in at 4.43. Also possessing the biggest hands (10 5/8") of any wideout at the Scouting Combine, Hankerson vaulted himself into consideration for the back end of the first round. Naysayers point to a drop or two in the Gauntlet Drill, but very few NFL decision makers put stock in that workout.

More Hankerson measurables: 36" vertical, 4.21 short shuttle, 6.94 three cone

5. Illinois ILB Martez Wilson

Even the Fighting Illini's closest supporters were stunned when Wilson declared for the draft, and as an underclassman ineligible for postseason all-star games, he needed a dominant Combine to make the decision worthwhile. Wilson delivered, running the best forty of any linebacker in Indy (4.49) at 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds. Wilson's speed is freakish, and at his position only surefire first-round picks Justin Houston and Von Miller showed more lower-body explosion in the standing long jump (10'4"). Wilson also benefits from being the cream of a weak inside linebacker crop.

More Wilson measurables: 34 5/8" arms, 23 reps of 225, 36" vertical, 4.28 short shuttle

6. Nebraska RB Roy Helu

Helu has flown well under the radar for a back who averaged 6.62 YPC in one of college football's most predictably run-first offenses, but stated his case to be a day-two pick in Indy. Running a 4.42 forty that ranked sixth among running backs, Helu also posted the best 20-yard shuttle time (4.01), fastest 60-yard shuttle (11.07), and second best three-cone drill (6.67). If folks are sleeping on the one-cut tackle breaker, it's not because of Helu's size (6'0/219) or respectable pass-catching background (54 career receptions). Some team is going to get a steal this April.

More Helu measurables: 10 1/4" hands (biggest among RBs), 36.5" vertical, 9'11" broad jump

7. Appalachian State FS Mark LeGree

No player in this draft class can touch LeGree's 22 career interceptions, but as an FCS small-schooler there were plenty of questions about his athleticism. LeGree didn't burn up the track with his 4.56 forty, but it was the second fastest among all safeties in Indianapolis. Also weighing in at a solid 5'11 1/2" and 210 pounds, LeGree is on the radar as a possible third-round pick.

More LeGree measurables: 9'8" broad jump, 4.09 short shuttle, 6.90 three cone

8. Auburn RB Mario Fannin

Fannin never topped 84 carries in a college season and played behind freshman Michael Dyer for last year's BCS champs, but his measurables are intriguing. At 5'10/231, Fannin turned in the second fastest forty time (4.38) among running backs, behind only injury-prone Maryland carry sharer Da'Rel Scott. Fannin is built to pass protect and is Auburn's all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards by a running back. He has the look of a homerun-hitting third-down ace.

More Fannin measurables: 9 1/2" hands, 37 1/2" vertical

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[SIZE=+1]Combine's Biggest Fallers[/SIZE]

1. Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett

Mallett impressed in Combine throwing drills against no pass rush, but everyone knows he can spin it. What hurt Mallett was his media interview, which has been described as a "train wreck" more than once and will be replayed over and over leading up to the draft. Mallett needed to go to Indianapolis poised, confident, and truthful, and in a public setting proved nowhere near ready to be a leader. FOX Sports' Adam Caplan has dropped the strong-armed passer to sixth in his latest quarterback rankings, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Mallett fall all the way to the third round.

Mallett's measurables: 6'7/253, 34 3/8" arms, refused to run forty and shuttles, 8'7" broad jump

2. Auburn DT Nick Fairley

Fairley hardly had a disaster Combine, but being passed by Marcell Dareus on the majority of draft boards is going to hurt him on April 28. Fairley weighed in more than an inch shorter and seven pounds lighter than his college listing, and at 291 pounds is unlikely to appeal to 3-4 teams. Fairley did run an impressive 4.87 forty time considering his size, but that won't help his stock much because defensive tackles never have to run forty yards. The ten-yard split is much more telling.

More Fairley measurables: 34 3/4" arms, did not bench, 31" vertical, 9'5" broad jump

3. North Carolina WR Greg Little

Little exhibited impressive athleticism in the forty-yard dash (4.53), vertical leap (40 1/2"), and standing long jump (10'9"), and even led the wide receiver field with 27 reps of 225 pounds. He's clearly been staying in shape. Unfortunately, NFL teams are much more concerned that Little was "less than truthful" during Combine Q&As after an NCAA suspension cost him his entire senior season. As Lance Zierlein of the Houston Chronicle pointed out, "Scouts already know the answers, Little." Which makes it all the more unwise for Little to lie to them.

More Little measurables: 6'3/231, 9 1/8" hands, 4.21 short shuttle, 6.80 three cone

4. Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn

Like Little, Clayborn's problems aren't athletic. The 6-foot-3, 281-pound pass rusher recorded a solid 1.66 ten-yard split (the same as 319-pound Dareus) and 4.13 short shuttle, to go with a 4.83 forty time. Clayton's red flags have to do with his medical. ESPN's Tony Softli reported just before the Combine that Clayborn suffers from Erb's Palsy, which affects the right side of his body. SI's Don Banks predicts that Clayborn will "probably slip some" because of the condition. His right arm is "mal-developed" and has forced Clayborn to play only right end. Coming off a poor senior season and lacking versatility, Clayborn is no longer a first-round shoo-in.

More Clayborn measurables: 32 1/2" arms, could not bench due to arm injury, 33" vertical

5. Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers

Rodgers is supposed to be a dynamic scatback in the Dexter McCluster or Darren Sproles mold. Sproles ran 4.48 at the 2005 Combine, while McCluster was timed as fast as 4.39 at his Pro Day last March. Shorter than both, Rodgers weighed in at 5-foot-5 7/8 and 196 pounds before running an alarmingly slow 4.64 forty in Indy. Rodgers' three-cone time (7.31) ranked dead last among tailbacks at the Combine, which figures to make Mayock reconsider his positional rankings.

More Rodgers measurables: 8 7/8" hands, 33" vertical

6. Colorado CB Jimmy Smith

Another athletic phenom with major character concerns, Smith did not disappoint in timed drills in Indy. The definition of a "size corner" at 6-foot-2 1/4 and 211 pounds, Smith blazed the track with an official 4.46 forty, unofficially timing as fast as 4.38. Smith also repped 225 pounds 24 times to rank second among cornerbacks at the Combine. Multiple reports have suggested Smith's poor football character will cost him dearly in April, however, and he admitted to only one past arrest in his media interview. Smith was arrested at least twice in college and failed multiple drug tests.

More Smith measurables: 9 3/4" hands, 36" vertical, 10'3" broad jump, 6.93 three cone

7. Florida S Ahmad Black

Black is one of the draft's top playmakers after picking off an eye-popping 33 passes in his last seven seasons of football, but he's too small to be so slow. Weighing in at 5-foot-9 1/2 and 184 pounds, Black recorded forty times of 4.74 and 4.78 while also failing to impress in the 60-yard shuttle (11.25) and three-cone drill (6.85). Of course, all of this could cause Black to be a great value on draft weekend. He led the Gators in tackles, interceptions, and forced fumbles last year.

More Black measurables: 18 reps of 225, 35 1/2" vertical, 9'11" broad jump

8. Wisconsin RB John Clay

No, Clay shouldn't have returned for his senior year in Madison, because Montee Ball and James White are better than him. He would've been weeded out of the rotation. Declaring for the draft was fine, but Clay showed in Indy that he lacks speed to last in the NFL. Despite dropping 30 pounds since the college season, Clay ran 4.87 to bring up the rear among running backs at the Combine. It's a time that will get Clay lumped in with fullbacks and torpedo his draft stock.

More Clay measurables: 6'0/231, 8 3/4" hands, 29" vertical

 

[HacheMan]

Who gets hurt in a lockout?
Publicly, NFL coaches and generals managers at the NFL Scouting Combine said things were business as usual.

"Whatever the rules are, there will be the same rules for 32 teams," Chiefs G.M. Scott Pioli said.

That's true, but not all 32 teams face the same challenges in the event of a long workou. Pioli's Chiefs are relatively well situated to handle a summer off. Others aren't so lucky.

While recent developments indicate we may not have to face a long lockout after all, let's take a look at what teams would be hurt the most by a lost offseason. (And what teams may actually benefit.)

1. Titans: Tennessee faces the Trifecta of uncertainty: They have two new coordinators and absolutely no option to start at quarterback. (Uh, Rusty Smith??)

2. Broncos: This is the wrong offseason to break in a newbie football czar (John Elway) and a new defensive scheme under John Fox. Trading Kyle Orton could be nearly impossible, and Tim Tebow will miss valuable practice time.

3. Browns: Browns football czar Mike Holmgren will pay for delaying the end of the Eric Mangini era a year. Presumptive starting quarterback Colt McCoy won't get to learn his new scheme and the defensive players don't fit the team's new 3-4 defense. With a first-time head coach in Pat Shurmur, it's like they are starting all over again.

4. Panthers: Notice a trend atop the rankings? Teams with new head coaches are going to be at a big disadvantage if there's a long lockout. The Panthers may be stuck with Jimmy Clausen as their Week 1 starter in a brand new offense.

5. Vikings: Promoting Leslie Frazier to head coach should help the defense maintain continuity. Then again, the team has holes all over the roster and a potentially limited free agent period to address them. Finding a veteran quarterback will be difficult without being able to trade before the draft.

6. Seahawks: The Pete Carroll Program is entering Year Two, but how much progress was really made? Their quarterback position is actually more unsettled, and the team needs time to install a new offense. This is a team likely to continue a massive overhaul whenever a CBA is reached, so time is at a premium.

7. 49ers: Perhaps Jim Harbaugh has spoken so glowingly of Alex Smith this offseason because he knows he won't have any better options. An abbreviated free agent period in August or September will lead to a lot of shotgun marriages. (And a high divorce rate next offseason.)

8. Dolphins: Miami would love to add pieces to their bankrupt offense, especially with new coordinator Brian Daboll. Instead, they could get stuck with another season of Chad Henne in a loaded AFC East.

9. Bengals: The best way to get value for Carson Palmer would be to trade him before the draft. That won't be possible now, and it's anyone's guess what quarterback will run new coordinator Jay Gruden's West Coast offense next year.

10. Cardinals: Pressing pause isn't a great idea for a team with John Skelton as their best returning quarterback. Oh, and Arizona's annually disappointing defense has yet another new coordinator.

11. Eagles: New coordinator Juan Castillo hasn't coached defense since the 1980's. He needs the offseason just as much as the players. Any team that is active in free agency like Philly could also get penalized this year. Speaking of which . . .

12. Redskins: Without their annual offseason championship to win, what do the Redskins have? After one year of Mike Shanahan, the roster actually has more holes than when Jim Zorn was dumped.

13. Rams: Teams near the top of our list have a lot of young players with new coaches. St. Louis' offense is extremely green at quarterback, receiver, and tackle. Post-lockout, they will have to take a crash course in Josh McDaniels' playbook – one of the most complex in football.

14. Texans: It will be tough to Wade Phillips to install his 3-4 defense without practice time. The Texans have a lot of players like Mario Williams and Brian Cushing playing in very different roles. A bright side: the offense has enough continuity and returning parts to survive a lockout just fine.

15. Bucs: The youngest team in the league needs as much time on the field together as possible.

16. Cowboys: Dallas brought in a new defense coordinator – Rob Ryan – but the scheme remains the same. Continuity is solid on offense, although that's not necessarily a good thing with this aging offensive line.

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17. Bills: Buffalo doesn't rank too high because they have a returning coaching staff and they aren't overly active in free agency. Still, a lockout could stall the progress of a potential incoming rookie quarterback.

18. Lions: Well, quarterback Matthew Stafford probably wouldn't be healthy enough to practice much anyway. Detroit would like to be active in free agency, but a lockout wouldn't be crushing for Jim Schwartz's program.

19. Jets: Rex Ryan's team has plenty of veterans that don't need a lot of practice time. The tricky part here is the Jets have a lot of big free agent decisions and would love to pick up some veterans via trade and free agency. There will be no Santonio Holmes-type deals this time around for an annually active team.

20. Raiders: New head coach Hue Jackson already ran much of the offense last offseason, so a transition shouldn't be too rough. The Raiders lockout-proofed their roster by re-signing Richard Seymour, John Henderson, Stanford Routt and Kamerion Wimbley in February.

21. Bears: Jay Cutler and his young wideouts could use more time around Mad Mike Martz so they can figure out what he's talking about.

22. Jaguars: You could make the argument a long lockout helps the young Jaguars a bit, if only because it hurts division rivals Tennessee and Houston.

23. Giants: The Giants own enviable continuity on offense and plenty of talent on defense. They aren't a team that is afraid to spend in free agency, but a lockout wouldn't hurt them much.

24. Falcons: Falcons G.M. Thomas Dimitroff and coach Mike Smith have been together longer than most of the NFC's power tandems. That says a lot about job security in the league.

25. Ravens: Still searching for wide receivers after all these years. Baltimore may be prevented from making a splashy move like the Anquan Boldin trade, but their veteran roster should hold up well in a lockout.

26. Saints: Having a coach on the field like Drew Brees will be an advantage if there's no actually coaching going this offseason. While they have a lot of free agents, New Orleans' scheme continuity will help.

27. Chargers: Philip Rivers and his receivers should be able to hit the ground running. Ron Rivera's absence could complicate things on defense, but it's not like the Chargers can start any slower than they usually do.

28. Chiefs: Going back to Todd Haley as a de facto offensive coordinator should be a lot easier than bringing in a new guy.

29. Patriots: The weirder the rules are, the more that creative front offices should thrive. The Patriots and other quick-thinking teams can better adapt and sniff out market inefficiencies.

30. Steelers: Missing out on a free agent period won't exactly be devastating for a draft-and-develop team like Pittsburgh. Perhaps more time off could actually help any Super Bowl runner up hangover.

31. Packers: We stacked the bottom of our list with the best front offices. Ted Thompson is going to stay the course no matter the league rules, and he has the ultimate trump card -- the most talented roster in the league.

32. Colts: It's hard to imagine a team affected less by a lockout than the Colts. They could care less about free agency and their schemes haven't changed in a decade. Their free agent class will be all their returning injured players.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: NFL Mock 2.0
Last week's Scouting Combine revealed more insight into NFL teams' thinking about the 2011 draft class. Some players helped and hurt their stock based on workouts, but the most important things we learned were not necessarily derived from forty times and bench press totals.

Teams are not as high on Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley as the media was led to believe pre-February 24. There is a divide among teams regarding this year's top quarterback, although Cam Newton seems to have the slight edge. Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn and North Carolina DE Robert Quinn's stock could be heavily influenced by their medicals.

Knowing at least a slight bit more than we did two weeks ago, let's take another crack at projecting the top 32.

1. Panthers: Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn.

Carolina's new coaching staff doesn't seem to believe in 2010 second-rounder Jimmy Clausen, and the front office is "not sold" that any of this year's defensive linemen are worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. Newton has difference-making talent and is capable of rejuvenating the NFL's worst team.

2. Broncos: Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama.

Dareus has bypassed Nick Fairley on most teams' draft boards as this year's top defensive tackle, and a quick glance at Denver's depth chart reveals the worst interior line in football. At 319 pounds with incredible quickness and short-area explosion, Dareus is a no-brainer pick at No. 2.

3. Bills: Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end, Clemson.

The Bills would likely prefer Cam Newton, but they won't have a chance at him barring a trade up. While Blaine Gabbert should also be considered, the NCAA's sack and tackle-for-loss leader will be difficult to resist for a club that ranked 27th in the league in sacks last year. Ala Darnell Dockett in Arizona, Bowers would play end in the Bills' 3-4 defense and focus on rushing the passer.

4. Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, quarterback, Missouri.

Carson Palmer is serious about retirement, and brotherly backup Jordan wouldn't make most NFL rosters as a third-stringer. Without free agency on the horizon, there's no way the Bengals can afford to pass on an elite quarterback. Gabbert is this year's top-rated passer in the eyes of many.

5. Cardinals: Von Miller, linebacker, Texas A&M.

"Two words," uses NFL Network's Mike Mayock to describe Miller. "Defies. Gravity. Bends parallel to the ground. This guy comes off the edge and it's scary how quick he gets to the quarterback." The Cards could use some of that with Joey Porter and Clark Haggans both 34 years old.

6. Browns: A.J. Green, wide receiver, Georgia.

While he didn't generate quite the buzz fellow receiver Julio Jones did in Indianapolis, Green remains the clear-cut No. 1 wideout in this year's draft class. The Browns are committed to Colt McCoy, but have to know he'll never realize his potential without an improved supporting cast.

7. 49ers: Patrick Peterson, cornerback, LSU.

Peterson's talent probably deserves to go higher, but there hasn't been a corner drafted in the top five in eight years. The 2010 Thorpe Award winner as college football's top defensive back, Peterson's addition would allow the Niners to comfortably part with overpriced Nate Clements.

8. Titans: Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn

The Titans are targeting a quarterback, but Blaine Gabbert and Cam Newton shouldn't get out of the top four. Instead, they can end Fairley's mini-freefall by reuniting him with college position coach Tracy Rocker. Fairley didn't have a good Combine, and his measurables (e.g. size, 10-yard split) aren't top-five caliber.

9. Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, cornerback, Nebraska.

Terence Newman is going on 33 and was abused in coverage last season, so it's hard to imagine the Cowboys paying his $8 million non-guaranteed salary for 2011. The secondary is Dallas' greatest weakness by a good margin, and Amukamara is by far the best defensive back available.

10. Redskins: Julio Jones, wide receiver, Alabama.

Owning no third- or fourth-round pick, the Redskins are prime candidates to trade out of the tenth spot with a team hungry for pass rushers. If coach Mike Shanahan is forced to stand pat, he must select an immediate starter at either quarterback, wide receiver, or in the defensive front seven.

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11. Texans: Robert Quinn, linebacker, North Carolina.

Quinn's Combine performance has been described as "just average," but he's still a shoo-in for the top-12 selections. The Texans are currently relying on former backup defensive end Connor Barwin to be their lead pass-rushing outside linebacker. Barwin has 4 1/2 career sacks.

12. Vikings: Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.

Clued-in Minneapolis Star-Tribune beat writer Judd Zulgad's "gut feeling" is that the Vikings are high enough on Locker to draft him in round one. Defensive line and safety are big needs for Minnesota, but when Joe Webb is atop your current depth chart, quarterback trumps them all.

13. Lions: Tyron Smith, offensive tackle, USC.

Our last mock had the Lions taking a tackle, and we don't see that changing barring a draft-day slide from one of the top-two cornerbacks. Boasting 36 3/8-inch arms and the most impressive feet of all offensive linemen available, Smith has overtaken Nate Solder and Anthony Castonzo.

14. Rams: Aldon Smith, defensive end, Missouri.

G.M. Billy Devaney will be disappointed when Julio Jones goes off the board in front of him, but quality fallback options are plentiful. A local favorite, Smith showed at the Combine that his best position is defensive end in a 4-3, and current Chris Long bookend James Hall recently turned 34.

15. Dolphins: Mark Ingram, running back, Alabama.

Ingram's stock wasn't affected by his lackluster 4.62 forty at the Combine because all NFL scouts already know he isn't a burner. The fact that he beat out top running back sprinter Da'Rel Scott in the ten-yard split indicates that Ingram's short-area burst is elite and worthy of a top-20 selection.

16. Jaguars: Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.

Ponder is gaining steam as a first-round prospect after big Senior Bowl and Combine performances, and word out of Big Cat Country is that G.M. Gene Smith "likes him a lot." David Garrard recently turned 33, is due $25.4 million over the next three seasons, and isn't a true franchise quarterback.

17. Patriots: J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.

Five-technique defensive ends don't go early in drafts unless it's the Chiefs reeeaching for Tyson Jackson. But Watt projects as a borderline double-digit sack guy ala Justin Smith, with the ability to also be a high-impact run defender. At this point in the draft, Watt should be atop the Pats' board.

18. Chargers: Cameron Jordan, defensive end, Cal.

Like Watt, Jordan is unlikely to be drafted before the teens unless a 4-3 team deems him capable of playing strong-side end. Throw out Jackson, and in the last five years the highest a true "five technique" has been selected was Jared Odrick at No. 28. San Diego is desperate for end help.

19. Giants: Anthony Castonzo, offensive tackle, Boston College.

We mentioned in Mock Draft 1.0 Castonzo's connection to Giants assistant line coach Jack Bicknell, as well as New York's aging, thinning offensive line. Those concerns were not eased by G.M. Jerry Reese's recent comments about Shawn Andrews' chronic back problems, details of Rich Seubert's major knee surgery, and Shaun O'Hara's forthcoming Achilles' procedure.

20. Buccaneers: Ryan Kerrigan, defensive end, Purdue.

After bringing up the NFC rear in sacks, the Bucs are desperate for pass-rushing production. Kerrigan fits that role as well as anyone in the draft after generating 56 tackles for loss and 32.5 sacks in his final three college seasons while tying the NCAA record for forced fumbles (14).

21. Chiefs: Derek Sherrod, offensive tackle, Mississippi State.

Kansas City needs a better right tackle than Barry Richardson if they're going to continue to lead the NFL in rushing. Sherrod comes from a college program that posted a 619:288 run-to-pass ratio last season, and is considered this year's most consistent tackle prospect in some circles.

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22. Colts: Nate Solder, offensive tackle, Colorado.

Solder lacks core strength to be an instant impact run blocker, but that's less concerning for a Colts team that has ranked 30th, 31st, and 28th in rushing attempts over the past three years. Indy's pass protection is among the NFL's worst, and they need to replace both starting tackles.

23. Eagles: Jimmy Smith, cornerback, Colorado.

Smith is a top-15 talent with shutdown-caliber ability, but character concerns will prevent him from going that soon. He's still a first-round prospect, and cornerback is the Eagles' most glaring offseason need after Dimitri Patterson and Ellis Hobbs flopped opposite Asante Samuel last year.

24. Saints: Justin Houston, defensive end, Georgia.

Georgia's leader in sacks (10) and tackles for loss (18.5) in 2010, Houston was a consensus first-team All-SEC pick and Nagurski Award finalist behind Da'Quan Bowers. The Saints are in pursuit of disruptive front seven players after seeing their big plays on defense evaporate last season.

25. Seahawks: Colin Kaepernick, quarterback, Nevada.

Kaepernick isn't commonly considered a first-round prospect, but Tim Tebow, Josh Freeman, and Joe Flacco were viewed similarly entering the last three drafts. All were selected in the top 32. The Seahawks could bring along Kaepernick slowly after they re-sign stopgap Matt Hasselbeck.

26. Ravens: Torrey Smith, wide receiver, Maryland.

Smith is known to be on G.M. Ozzie Newsome's radar as the Ravens' personnel maven works to upgrade the slowest wide receiver corps in the NFL. At 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds with 4.43 speed, Smith is a true vertical threat and would be an instant fan favorite with local ties.

27. Falcons: Gabe Carimi, offensive tackle, Wisconsin.

A big-play wideout like Titus Young should also receive consideration from Atlanta, but Carimi provides more value at No. 27. Three Falcons starting offensive linemen are free agents, including right tackle Tyson Clabo. (Guards Harvey Dahl and Justin Blalock are the others.)

28. Patriots: Brooks Reed, linebacker, Arizona.

Drawing comparisons to Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Clay Matthews, Reed ripped up the Combine with the top ten-yard split by a pass rusher, even showing more initial burst than A.J. Green. At 6'3/263, Reed is what the doctor ordered for New England's outside linebacker woes.

29. Bears: Mike Pouncey, guard/center, Florida.

The Bears believe 2010 seventh-round pick J'Marcus Webb can be a long-term fixture at tackle, but the interior remains a major problem area. After his team allowed the most sacks in the NFL last season, G.M. Jerry Angelo is probably 80 percent -- at least -- to draft a lineman at No. 29.

30. Jets: Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive end, Temple.

If the season began today, Marcus Dixon (three career appearances) and Mike Devito (0.5 sacks) would be the Jets' starting defensive ends. Wilkerson is built perfectly to play five technique with 35 1/4-inch arms at 6'4/315. He also led Temple in sacks, tackles for loss, and hurries last year.

31. Steelers: Aaron Williams, cornerback, Texas.

Williams' best position might ultimately be safety, but he's ticketed for cornerback initially after posting respectable forty-yard dash times in Indianapolis. Two of the Steelers' top three corners are free agents, and starting free safety Ryan Clark is entering his age-32 season.

32. Packers: Cameron Heyward, defensive end, Ohio State.

The talent-rich Packers will be able to draft the best player available on April 28. Heyward might be in the mid first-round conversation if not for offseason Tommy John surgery, and he also plays a position at which Green Bay is losing a key cog in free agent defensive end Cullen Jenkins.

Left out: Illinois DT Corey Liuget, UCLA LB Akeem Ayers, Illinois LB Martez Wilson, Pitt WR Jonathan Baldwin, Penn State C Stefen Wisniewski, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, Illinois RB Mikel Leshoure, Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn, Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph, UCLA FS Rahim Moore, Baylor NT Phil Taylor, Miami WR Leonard Hankerson, Miami CB Brandon Harris, Villanova G/T Ben Ijalana, Baylor G/T Danny Watkins, Virginia Tech RB Ryan Williams, Oregon State DT Stephen Paea, Boise State WR Titus Young

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: The Quarterbacks
The 2011 quarterback class is commonly regarded as weak amongst NFL fans, ostensibly because it lacks a surefire plug-and-play starter. The clear-cut top two prospects come from college spread offenses, Auburn's of the read-option variety and Missouri's resembling a Mike Leach system.

Draft weekend (April 28-30) will prove fans wrong, however, as at least seven quarterbacks are virtual locks for the first three rounds. In a quarterback-needy year, as many as five or six could be drafted in the top 32 picks. For perspective, just once in the last 11 years have seven QBs gone in rounds one through three. The average number of first-round signal callers taken during that span is 2.5.

The 2011 QBs are far more well regarded in the NFL community. What this class lacks in certain Week 1 starters it makes up for in long-term star potential.

[SIZE=+1]1. Cam Newton, Auburn[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'5/244
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 4.59
Comparison: Donovan McNabb
2010 Stats: 185-of-280 (66.1%) for 2,854 yds (10.2 YPA), 30 TD/7 INT; 5.6 YPC, 20 TDs
Draft Prediction: Panthers, No. 1 overall

Positives: Newton went 25-1 as a college starter, including one JUCO season, and all told his teams were 30-1 in games Newton appeared. A three-time national champ ('08 Florida, '09 Blinn College, 2010 Auburn), Newton is an established winner around whom teammates rally. Newton's career FBS completion rate (65.41) and yards-per-attempt average (9.91) are easily the best in this quarterback class. As a junior, Newton's 30 touchdown passes averaged 31.5 yards in length. He has a powerful arm and off-the-charts athleticism, averaging 5.56 yards per career rushing attempt with 24 scores. Last season, Newton dominated football's toughest conference en route to a 14-0 record, 51 all-purpose touchdowns, a BCS title, and the Heisman Trophy.

Negatives: Auburn's option offense is dissimilar from the NFL, allowing its quarterback to immediately scramble if his first read is covered. Though Newton draws high marks for arm strength and his overhand delivery, he developed a bad habit of "fading away" on intermediate-to-deep throws, and needs plenty of coaching. Newton only started 14 games at the FBS level. At Florida early in his career, Newton accumulated character red flags for stealing a laptop and allegedly cheating on multiple exams in the winter of 2008. He left UF at the end of the following semester, reportedly to avoid suspension or expulsion. Newton's accuracy is a work in progress. He struggled in passing drills at the Combine, although Newton was a bit better at his Pro Day.

Outlook: Donovan McNabb had a leg up with 49 college starts, but his natural skill set is comparable to Newton's. Raw in his own right out of Syracuse, McNabb was brought along slowly as a rookie, often playing behind Doug Pederson. Newton would figure to benefit from similar handling. As a finished product, he has more upside than any player at any position in the draft.

[SIZE=+1]2. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'4/233
College Experience: Third-year junior
40 Time: 4.62
Comparison: Kyle Orton
2010 Stats: 301-of-475 (63.4%) for 3,186 yds (6.71 YPA), 16 TD/9 INT; 5 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Bengals, No. 4 overall

Positives: The nation's No. 2 quarterback recruit behind Terrelle Pryor in 2008, Gabbert replaced Chase Daniel as Mizzou's starter after one year on the bench. He compiled a career 40:18 TD-to-INT ratio in the Tigers' passer-friendly offense, breaking out in his first season as a starter with career highs in TDs (24) and yards per attempt (8.07) while throwing to deep threats Danario Alexander and Jared Perry. Gabbert's intangibles (work ethic, passion for the game) have drawn comparisons to Matt Ryan's, and he was a first-team Academic All-Big 12 selection. Gabbert's a top-notch athlete at the position, and is considered to possess ideal arm strength.

Negatives: Gabbert played in a Texas Tech-style shotgun offense requiring its passer to "catch, rock, and throw" to one read rather than drop 3-5 steps and go through progressions. His footwork is raw. Gabbert's production slipped dramatically after Alexander and Perry graduated, morphing into a checkdown machine with smallish slot man T.J. Moe as his primary receiver. Gabbert's 2010 YPA was the worst in this quarterback class, and he completed a startlingly low 30 percent of his throws of 15 or more yards. Gabbert has shaky pocket presence and flashes a tendency to tank under pressure. Three of his nine 2010 interceptions occurred in the fourth quarter, two more with three minutes or less left in the half, and six killed six-or-more-play drives.

Outlook: Unlike Newton, Gabbert did not dominate in college. And Gabbert was far less dominant against far weaker competition. However, more skilled college-to-pro talent evaluators than exist at Rotoworld believe Gabbert projects as a just as good, if not better pro than Newton. We'll defer to them while keeping in mind that something doesn't quite add up logistically here.

[SIZE=+1]3. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'5/233
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.53
Comparison: Randall Cunningham
2010 Stats: 233-of-359 (64.9%) for 3,022 yds (8.42 YPA), 21 TD/8 INT; 7.0 YPC, 20 TDs
Draft Prediction: Bills, No. 34 overall

Positives: Prolific statistically, Kaepernick accounted for 2.96 all-purpose touchdowns per college start, which compares favorably to fellow athletic QBs Jake Locker (2.05), Andy Dalton (1.86), and Tyrod Taylor (1.59), and ranks behind only Newton (3.57 - in a much smaller sample). Kaepernick's career record was 32-16, including a 21-2 finish. Accumulating a Sam Bradford-like 82:24 TD-to-INT ratio and 6.85 yards-per-carry average, Kaepernick was a big play waiting to happen in the WAC and co-conference player of the year as a senior. No quarterback threw with more velocity than Kaepernick at the Combine, and only the smallish Taylor ran a faster forty. Incredibly durable, Kaepernick never missed a college start despite 600 career rushing attempts.

Negatives: Kaepernick played in Wolf Pack coach Chris Ault's Pistol offense, in which he lined up 3-4 yards behind center and took quick shotgun snaps. He did not take snaps from center, though the Pistol involves play-action fakes. Kaepernick has nearly 34" arms and a pro-caliber baseball background, contributing to an elongated delivery. Though his completion rates have risen every year, it's been speculated that Kaepernick's unique motion will affect his deep-ball accuracy. His passing precision in the short and intermediate areas is still a work in progress.

Outlook: The top three QBs on this list are all "developmental," and Kaepernick may be to the highest degree if an NFL staff tinkers with his delivery. Working in Kaepernick's favor is a rare blend of arm power, athleticism, coach-ability, and smarts (he scored 37 on the Wonderlic). It's fair to wonder if Nevada's offense ultimately limited Kaepernick late in his college career. He can power the football downfield, and was rarely given that opportunity in the Pistol.

[SIZE=+1]4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'6/238
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
40 Time: 5.37
Comparison: Kerry Collins
2010 Stats: 266-of-411 (64.7%) for 3,869 yds (9.41 YPA), 32 TD/12 INT; 4 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Bengals, No. 35 overall

Positives: Mallett has just as strong an arm as Kaepernick with much more established long-ball accuracy. Among quarterbacks in the 2011 class with at least 15 college starts, Mallett's 8.78 career yards-per-attempt average is second to none, and no NCAA quarterback completed more passes of 30-plus yards in 2009 and 2010. Mallett played in pro-style offenses at Michigan and Arkansas. He has an over-the-top delivery and is considered a natural thrower of the football. Mallett went 21-8 in 39 career starts, compiling a 69:24 TD-to-INT ratio and setting the Razorbacks' all-time records for passing touchdowns, passing yards, and 300-plus yard games.

Negatives: Mallett's character red flags are well documented, but he is similarly flawed on the field. No quarterback in the draft took more sacks over the past two seasons, nor is any as lacking in mobility. Mallett has drawn comparisons to Dan McGwire and a late-career version of Drew Bledsoe for poor escape ability. A subpar athlete, Mallett posted a 26" vertical and ran a 5.37 forty at his March 8 Pro Day. Rumors of drug abuse and addiction plagued Mallett in Fayetteville, perhaps explaining his surprising decision to not enter last year's draft. Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino has a history of deceiving the NFL with quarterbacks he's coached up in college. Petrino has tutored Brian Brohm, Chris Redman, Stefan LeFors, Jason Campbell, and Doug Nussmeier, and all either failed to pan out or fell well short of expectations.

Outlook: Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders recently described Mallett as "a statue with a cannon attached," likening him to Derek Anderson and saying Mallett would require "a top-five pass-blocking line" to fulfill his potential. It's probably a good thing, then, that Mallett's off-field issues will push him down draft boards, giving him a better chance to land with a good team with a good line.

[SIZE=+1]5. Christian Ponder, Florida State[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'2/229
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.65
Comparison: Chad Pennington
2010 Stats: 184-of-299 (61.5%) for 2,044 yds (6.84 YPA), 20 TD/8 INT; 4 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Jaguars, No. 16 overall

Positives: Ponder's 61.8 career completion rate ranks second among elite draft-eligible quarterbacks, behind only Cam Newton. (Old pal David Lewin would like Ponder). Ponder's high percentages are especially impressive because he played in a pro-style offense, making much tougher throws than those required of spread QBs. Ponder may be the most NFL-ready quarterback in this year's class. He's highly intelligent (3.73 GPA, graduated in 2 1/2 years), considered technically sound with outstanding footwork, and an above average athlete. Possessing an ideal skill set for a West Coast offense, Ponder has followed up a red flag-filled Chick-fil-A Bowl with a perfect offseason, winning Senior Bowl MVP and generating glowing reviews at the Combine.

Negatives: Ponder's junior season ended after nine games due to a Grade 3 separated throwing shoulder suffered on a post-interception tackle. He had surgery, and needed two more on his throwing elbow to repair burst bursa sacs as a senior. Ponder's arm looked shot in the aforementioned bowl game. He lasted one quarter and several of his passes sailed well above his intended target's head or into the dirt. Ponder has recovered, but his arm strength was never elite. His 7.12 career yards-per-attempt average is among the worst in this class, and Ponder struggles to connect outside the numbers. His 49:30 career TD-to-INT ratio is average at best.

Outlook: Ponder isn't an elite talent, and his production never matched his hype at FSU. But as a heady, accurate passer with a pro-style background, Ponder is the perfect example of a prospect who could move up draft boards in an extremely quarterback-needy year. Without free agency on the horizon, teams will be in a rush to fill out their QB depth charts in late April.

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[SIZE=+1]6. Andy Dalton, TCU[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'2/215
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.87
Comparison: Matt Flynn
2010 Stats: 209-of-316 (66.1%) for 2,857 yds (9.04 YPA), 27 TD/6 INT; 6 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: 49ers, No. 76 overall

Positives/Negatives: A "winner," Dalton finished his career with 42 victories and just eight losses, collecting Mountain West Player of the Year honors in both his junior and senior seasons. No quarterback in this class has started more games. TCU's all-time passing leader, Dalton is a sound decision maker (71:30 TD-to-INTs) with underrated athleticism (5.1 YPC). Like Ponder, however, Dalton is short on arm strength and struggles to "make all the throws." Unlike Ponder, Dalton played in a dink-and-dunk spread offense, operating strictly from the shotgun. He is the smallest quarterback in the top ten, and was unremarkable at the Senior Bowl and Combine.

Outlook: For the reasons stated above, it should be no surprise that NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock recently moved Dalton behind Ponder in his updated quarterback rankings. Dalton projects as a game-manager type, and may be best suited as a long-term backup.

[SIZE=+1]7. Jake Locker, Washington[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'3/231
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.59
Comparison: Drew Stanton
2010 Stats: 184-of-332 (55.4%) for 2,265 yds (6.82 YPA), 17 TD/9 INT; 3.4 YPC, 6 TDs
Draft Prediction: Vikings, No. 12 overall

Positives/Negatives: A two-time major league baseball pick, Locker has rare athleticism and ideal arm strength for the position. He is considered particularly accurate on throwing outside the pocket. Locker showed toughness playing through a hairline rib fracture as a senior, although that goes both ways. He missed all but four games as a sophomore with a broken thumb and has been injury prone. Locker also failed more than he succeeded in his Huskies career. His 15-25 record is easily the worst among QBs likely to be drafted, and Locker's 53.9 career completion rate and 6.65 yards-per-attempt average are even more startlingly poor. Locker apologists point to a poor supporting cast, but elite quarterbacks typically make their teammates better. Locker has flirted with the idea of returning to baseball during the lockout, making him a risky investment.

Outlook: Locker played for quarterback guru Steve Sarkisian in his final two seasons at Washington, and regressed from year one to year two in Coach Sark's system. It's fair to wonder whether Locker will ever get "it" as a thrower. Some team will draft Locker early in April based strictly on potential; he has not been a successful passer. He's another boom-or-bust prospect.

[SIZE=+1]8. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'4/223
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.93
Comparison: Chad Henne
2010 Stats: 221-of-345 (64.1%) for 3,004 yds (8.71 YPA), 25 TD/6 INT; 2 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Redskins, fifth round

Positives/Negatives: 26-9 as a three-year starter, Stanzi took major strides as a senior. He considerably cut his interception total (15 to 6) and sack rate (one per 14 passes to one per 19), while making leaps in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. The Hawkeyes run a pro-style, West Coast offense under Kirk Ferentz, and reading defenses is considered one of Stanzi's strengths. His arm is regarded as above average, and Stanzi's work ethic is unquestioned. Stanzi was inconsistent throughout his career, however, often lacking aggressiveness and "it" factor. In his best year, Stanzi was not even recognized as an honorable mention All-Big Ten performer. He is an average athlete and struggled in Combine passing drills.

Outlook: Stanzi isn't as NFL ready as the other QBs with pro-style backgrounds, and he has plenty of physical limitations. Ultimately, he's going to be drafted with a fourth- or fifth-round pick. This should give Stanzi a decent chance at long-term success, but he lacks a high ceiling.

[SIZE=+1]9. Greg McElroy, Alabama[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'2/220
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.91
Comparison: Brian Hoyer
2010 Stats: 222-of-313 (70.9%) for 2,987 yds (9.54 YPA), 20 TD/5 INT; 1 RUS TD
Draft Prediction: Browns, sixth round

Positives/Negatives: Highly intelligent, McElroy recorded the best Wonderlic score (43) in this year's QB class and is a Rhodes Scholar-caliber student (3.9 GPA, graduated in three years). This shows up in his decision making; McElroy's career TD-to-INT ratio was 39:10. McElroy has a long track record of winning, going 43-3 dating back to his senior season in high school. All three losses came as a college senior. McElroy demonstrated toughness playing through cracked ribs in the Crimson Tide's January 2010 BCS Championship Game win over Texas. However, McElroy's passes lack ideal velocity, and he was annually surrounded by one of the nation's most talented supporting casts. McElroy's ball placement is impressive in the short passing game, but his deep balls flutter and float, and he cannot consistently power throws 18-25 yards downfield.

Outlook: Much like Alabama predecessor John Parker Wilson, McElroy projects as a long-term backup with the ability to manage games if injuries force him into action. It's worth noting that McElroy is a better prospect than Wilson, however, and should ascend to the No. 2 spot on a depth chart more quickly. He'll be an attractive draft pick in rounds five through seven.

[SIZE=+1]10. Ben Chappell, Indiana[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'3/224
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
40 Time: 4.95
Comparison: Patrick Ramsey
2010 Stats: 302-of-483 (62.5%) for 3,295 yds (6.82 YPA), 24 TD/9 INT; 3 RUS TDs
Draft Prediction: Chargers, sixth round

Positives/Negatives: Chappell is a big-armed passer with an aggressive, gunslinger-type mentality. Essentially playing in a Pistol offense in Bloomington, Chappell took just 11 sacks as a senior and finished his career with a 61.1 completion rate in 27 starts. His primary strength is making downfield throws. A bright student, Chappell was an annual Academic All-Big Ten pick and graduated in 2010 with an accounting degree. Chappell was often overweight in college, however, ballooning into the 250s before getting down to 224 for his Pro Day. His style of play seemed lackadaisical, possibly because he was out of shape. Chappell went 10-17 in his career.

Outlook: Chappell's physical tools are intriguing from a developmental standpoint, and he is not considered an especially inaccurate passer. His commitment level may be a concern. Ultimately, Chappell grades as a late-round or priority free agent flier who could earn a roster spot after time on a practice squad. He's got a better arm than many passers ranked ahead of him.

11. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech - 6'1/216 ... Former five-star recruit ... Unfairly stereotyped as a "running" quarterback, and a highly underrated passer ... Has some Seneca Wallace to him.

12. T.J. Yates, North Carolina - 6'4/221 ... Took way too many sacks at UNC, not much of an athlete ... Aggressive passer with 44 career starts ... Most draftniks are not high on Yates.

13. Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin - 6'2/209 ... Described as "ideal Mike Martz quarterback" ... 32:18 career TD-to-INT ratio ... Lacks intriguing athleticism and arm, but is accurate thrower.

14. Pat Devlin, Delaware - 6'3/226 ... Vastly overrated dating to high school ... Couldn't beat out Daryll Clark and Anthony Morelli at Penn State before transfer ... Exposed this offseason.

15. Ryan Colburn, Fresno State - 6'3/218 ... Played in pro-style offense for coach Pat Hill ... 16-10 career record with 42 TDs, 20 INTs ... Southpaw passer succeeded Tom Brandstater.

Other QBs with an outside shot to be drafted: Scott Riddle (Elon), Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M), Josh Portis (Cal, PA), Mitch Mustain (USC), Nathan Enderle (Idaho), Taylor Potts (Texas Tech), Adam Weber (Minnesota), Jeff Van Camp (Florida Atlantic).

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: NFL Mock 3.0
The NFL's labor impasse continues with no resolution in sight, leaving the Rotoworld news page focused on draft-eligible reports and player updates gleaned from coaching interviews. If free agency had occurred as normally scheduled, we'd be preparing to kick start our initial 2011 fantasy magazine.

But, barring a miraculous turnaround, free agency and trades won't happen before the draft. We may not see large-scale player movement until late in the summer. NFL teams are prepared for this, and will use April 28-30 to address need areas without being able to count on veteran additions.

Talent will still prevail, though, and there isn't a more gifted football player at a position of greater value than Auburn quarterback Cam Newton. Newton is the heavy favorite be the first pick in the draft.

Around the NFL, the other lock for April 28 is considered to be Marcell Dareus to the Broncos. With those picks all but established, this expanded, two-round mock spins us through possibilities for the next 62.

1. Panthers: Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn.

Newton presents bust factor, but he's the most dominant talent in the draft at the sport's most important position. The Panthers are leaning toward a quarterback with the No. 1 overall selection, and Newton outplayed Blaine Gabbert by a massive margin at the college level.

2. Broncos: Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama.

NFL Network's Mike Mayock reported this week that "everybody in the league" believes it would be an "upset" if the Broncos didn't use the No. 2 pick on Dareus. The best defensive tackle in the draft according to Mayock, Warren Sapp, and Rob Rang, Dareus is a no-brainer pick for Denver.

3. Bills: Von Miller, linebacker, Texas A&M.

Chan Gailey sent out indications at last week's owners meetings that he's head over heels for Newton and Blaine Gabbert. We're not buying it from a coach who specializes in turning non-premium quarterbacks into productive passers. Miller is everything that Aaron Maybin isn't..

4. Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, quarterback, Missouri.

If Carson Palmer skips the season (likely) and there's no pre-draft free agency (also likely), who's going to play quarterback in Cincinnati? Palmer is in physical decline anyhow, so even stubborn Bengals owner Mike Brown can't afford to pass on perhaps the highest-rated passer in the draft.

5. Cardinals: Robert Quinn, linebacker, North Carolina.

Arizona has made its interest in Gabbert clear, but he's not getting by the Bills and Bengals after the Panthers draft Newton first. The Cardinals' pick then comes down to Patrick Peterson and Quinn, and the latter plays a more needy position while also offering a higher long-term upside.

6. Browns: A.J. Green, wide receiver, Georgia.

Green is a top-five player on film, and Colt McCoy's potential to be a franchise quarterback will be significantly reduced if Cleveland rides the status quo at receiver. A game-breaking deep threat, Green is exactly the sort of "home-run hitter" club president Mike Holmgren is pining for.

7. 49ers: Patrick Peterson, cornerback, LSU.

Peterson will receive consideration from teams drafting second through sixth, but cornerbacks have little history of going so high. He's certainly worth the No. 7 selection for a 49ers team that ranked 24th against the pass last year and is likely to part with overpriced veteran Nate Clements.

8. Titans: Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn.

Concerns about Fairley's "bust factor" are real, echoed last week by both Mike Mayock and Todd McShay. While defensive tackle is a position of relative strength in Nashville, the new coaching staff would struggle to justify passing on the best player available with its defense-first mindset.

9. Cowboys: Tyron Smith, offensive tackle, USC.

The Cowboys are known to have Peterson atop their draft board, and might trade up once they see him slip a few spots. If not, Jerry Jones should be happy to "settle" for one of the draft's most athletic, longest offensive linemen. Smith would start in place of Marc Colombo at right tackle.

10. Redskins: Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.

Rex Grossman is a free agent, and Donovan McNabb won't see a dime of his $10 million roster bonus after flopping in his first year under Mike Shanahan. Shanahan's system requires an athletic quarterback, and Locker is at his best throwing outside the pocket. He could "develop" for a year behind Grossman.

11. Texans: Ryan Kerrigan, linebacker, Purdue.

Kerrigan's stock is rising to the point where he's likely to go in the top 15. The Texans would prefer Miller or Quinn, but behind them Kerrigan is the safest pass rusher available. He'd team with Connor Barwin and Mario Williams to give Houston a real chance at 45 sacks.

12. Vikings: Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end, Clemson.

Bowers could push his stock back into the top ten with a big April 1 Pro Day, but for now he's got too many medical red flags, on top of one-year wonder concerns, to be considered a lock to go that high. The Vikings are in danger of losing left end Ray Edwards to free agency.

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13. Lions: Prince Amukamara, cornerback, Nebraska.

Offensive tackle tops the Lions' list of needs with Gosder Cherilus coming off microfracture knee surgery, but G.M. Martin Mayhew can't pass on an elite cornerback. Amukamara has experience as a press corner, making him a terrific fit in Gunther Cunningham's aggressive defense.

14. Rams: Julio Jones, wide receiver, Alabama.

We know for sure Jones isn't getting past the Rams; the question is whether he'll make it to them. February foot surgery made it a bit more likely, and the chances will increase dramatically if the Redskins don't draft Jones with the No. 10 overall pick.

15. Dolphins: Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.

The Fins seem to swing and miss on second-round quarterbacks every offseason, so it's time to get serious. Ponder would be an upgrade over Chad Henne in terms of accuracy, smarts, athleticism, consistency, and touch. He'd take over as the starter at some point in year one.

16. Jaguars: Aldon Smith, defensive end, Missouri.

The Jags are known to be high on Ponder, but he may be out of G.M. Gene Smith's reach after putting together the best spring by a draft-eligible quarterback. With freakish length and pluses for character and production, Smith is right down Smith's alley at a trouble spot on defense.

17. Patriots: Brooks Reed, linebacker, Arizona.

The Pats have been searching for a difference-making outside linebacker since Willie McGinest ran out of steam. Reed, whose stock soared with the top ten-yard split by a pass rusher at the Combine, could immediately help as a bookend for 2010 second-rounder Jermaine Cunningham.

18. Chargers: J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.

The Chargers are also in the market for linebackers, but their biggest need area is five-technique defensive end. Watt is the best in this class. At 6-foot-5 and 290 pounds, he's a bigger, harder-to-move run plugger than Cameron Jordan and a superior rusher from both the inside and out.

19. Giants: Anthony Castonzo, offensive tackle, Boston College.

Castonzo needs to improve his strength, but he's an NFL-ready pass protector after 54 starts in Boston College's pro-style offense. Offensive line is a position that G.M. Jerry Reese would be smart to address with multiple high-round picks. The Giants are aging and injury-riddled up front.

20. Buccaneers: Cameron Jordan, defensive end, Cal.

The Bucs have glaring holes at both defensive end positions. G.M. Mark Dominik will likely target a more natural pass rusher entering the draft, but he can settle for a "safe" prospect in Jordan after Kerrigan, Bowers, and Aldon Smith go in the teens. Jordan would start at left end in Week 1.

21. Chiefs: Phil Taylor, nose tackle, Baylor.

Taylor doesn't project as a pass rusher, but he'll be coveted by 3-4 teams as an immovable "zero-technique" nose tackle at 337 pounds. The Chiefs need a youth injection inside, and may lose veteran starters Ron Edwards (315 pounds) and Shaun Smith (325 pounds) to free agency.

22. Colts: Derek Sherrod, offensive tackle, Mississippi State.

Left tackle Charlie Johnson isn't signed for 2011, and aging right tackle Ryan Diem is due a hefty $5.4 million salary coming off a career-worst season. Indianapolis needs to get serious about protecting Peyton Manning or risk missing what's left of the 35-year-old quarterback's "window."

23. Eagles: Jimmy Smith, cornerback, Colorado.

Some teams have removed Smith from their boards due to character concerns, but the Eagles can't afford to overlook the draft's third most talented cornerback. A true size corner at 6-foot-2 and 211 pounds, Smith would solidify the longtime trouble spot opposite Asante Samuel.

24. Saints: Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive tackle, Temple.

Wilkerson is another red-hot pre-draft riser, even earning the tenth overall player spot on Mel Kiper's Big Board. While we're not quite buying what Kiper is doing his absolute best to sell, Wilkerson certainly is a first-round pick. He'd help form a dynamic duo adjacent Sedrick Ellis.

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25. Seahawks: Mike Pouncey, guard/center, Florida.

Interior offensive linemen typically don't go so high, but the success of brother Maurkice is going to help Mike immensely on draft weekend. Seahawks incumbent center Chris Spencer is a free agent, and right guard Stacy Andrews is a surefire salary casualty, due $5.25 million in base pay.

26. Ravens: Torrey Smith, wide receiver, Maryland.

NFL Network's Mike Lombardi is on record as predicting Smith will be the third wideout drafted in April, and we agree. A true field stretcher with sub-4.4 speed, the former Maryland Terrapin would be a local favorite in Baltimore and help upgrade the league's slowest receiver corps.

27. Falcons: Gabe Carimi, offensive tackle, Wisconsin.

The 2010 Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year, Carimi is NFL ready after starting all four years at Wisconsin as Joe Thomas' successor. While A.J. Green rumors are swirling, the Falcons' most pressing need is o-line. Harvey Dahl, Tyson Clabo, and Justin Blalock are all unsigned.

28. Patriots: Nate Solder, offensive tackle, Colorado.

Free agent Matt Light is recovering from shoulder surgery, turns 33 in June, and may have torpedoed his value to the Pats by calling out Bob Kraft for sitting out the end of CBA talks. Solder would team with Sebastian Vollmer to give New England the NFL's most athletic tackle duo.

29. Bears: Corey Liuget, defensive tackle, Illinois.

The Bears haven't drafted an Illinois alum in 25 years, a trend that probably needs to halt out of respect for club history (Red Grange, George Halas, Dick Butkus). Regardless, the quick-footed Liuget offers good value for a team searching for its new Tommie Harris at three-technique tackle.

30. Jets: Jabaal Sheard, linebacker, Pittsburgh.

Sheard has been written off as a first-round possibility by many draftniks due to off-field concerns that were ultimately overblown. Last season's Big East Defensive Player of the Year is highly disruptive, and the Jets are desperate for improved speed across from Calvin Pace on the edge.

31. Steelers: Aaron Williams, cornerback, Texas.

Coach Mike Tomlin has a history of success with big corners, and Williams fits the mold at 6-foot and 204 pounds. Pittsburgh is in danger of losing two of its top three cornerbacks to free agency, including top cover man Ike Taylor. Williams could push Bryant McFadden into a nickel role.

32. Packers: Justin Houston, linebacker, Georgia.

Houston is considered raw from a technique perspective, but he's arguably the most explosive pure pass rusher in the draft. It's scary to think how dangerous Green Bay's defense could be with a talented bookend for Clay Matthews. Frank Zombo and Erik Walden are "just guys."

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33. Patriots: Mark Ingram, running back, Alabama.

Most mocks have Ingram pegged for the first round, but he lacks special talent at a non-premium position. Still, the Patriots would be hard pressed to pass on such an NFL-ready running back.

34. Bills: Colin Kaepernick, quarterback, Nevada.

Kaepernick is an ideal fit for Bills coach Chan Gailey, who runs a variation of the Pistol Spread offense and loves athletic quarterbacks. A team could be intrigued enough with Kaepernick's cannon arm and 4.5 speed, however, to trade back into the end of the first round to draft him.

35. Bengals: Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois.

The Bengals are re-implementing a power run offense after last year's failed attempt at a high-flying, pass-first system. Free agent Cedric Benson averaged 3.46 yards per carry in 2010.

36. Broncos: Kyle Rudolph, tight end, Notre Dame.

The Broncos cut Daniel Graham, and can upgrade their team speed with a field-stretching tight end early in round two. Coming from a pro-style offense, Rudolph is also an experienced blocker.

37. Browns: Adrian Clayborn, defensive end, Iowa.

The Browns will strongly consider defensive linemen at No. 6 overall, but A.J. Green proved too rare a talent to overlook. Clayborn would be a day-one starter at right end in the new 4-3 defense.

38. Cardinals: Danny Watkins, guard/tackle, Baylor.

Arizona had one of the poorest run-blocking lines in football last year, particularly on the interior. Watkins plays with a mean streak and would start at left guard, replacing free agent Alan Faneca.

39. Titans: Ryan Mallett, quarterback, Arkansas.

Mallett has a top-ten arm and a ten-cent head. He isn't worth a first-round pick, but Arkansas' all-time passing leader would make sense as a project for new OC Chris Palmer's vertical offense.

40. Cowboys: Cameron Heyward, defensive end, Ohio State.

Three of the Cowboys' top three ends are unsigned for 2011. After going defensive back in the first, Dallas can bolster its second biggest need area with a stout "five technique" at No. 40.

41. Redskins: Christian Ballard, defensive end, Iowa.

Ballard is a superb athlete with ideal length for a 3-4 defensive end. The Skins have weaknesses throughout their roster, but this is very good value for a player many project to go in the first round.

42. Texans: Brandon Harris, cornerback, Miami.

Harris doesn't have the size or speed to be a first-round pick, but he's worth a second-round stab from a team with the worst secondary in football. Unless the Texans can somehow pull off Nnamdi Asomugha when free agency begins, it's going to be a nightmare spot again next season.

43. Vikings: Ben Ijalana, tackle/guard, Villanova.

A rising small-school talent, Ijalana should begin receiving consideration at No. 32 from the Packers. The division rival Vikings should view him as a plug-and-play starter at right guard. Minnesota will have to wait for a new CBA or lockout injunction to find a quarterback for the 2011 season.

44. Lions: Akeem Ayers, linebacker, UCLA.

Ayers has great film, but running in the 4.8s at the Combine will eliminate him from first-round contention on most teams' draft boards. In Detroit, he could be everything Julian Peterson wasn't.

45. 49ers: Chris Carter, linebacker, Fresno State.

Defensive Player of the Year in the WAC, Carter has generated surprisingly little pre-draft buzz despite running in the 4.6s in Indianapolis with an impressive 1.62 ten-yard split. This draft isn't especially strong for 3-4 outside 'backers, pushing a productive player like Carter up the board.

46. Broncos: Stephen Paea, defensive tackle, Oregon State.

Paea's meniscus tear isn't a long-term concern, and the Broncos shouldn't stop drafting defensive linemen after Dareus at No. 2. They could field one of the most promising front fours in NFL with Dareus and Paea manning the interior, and Elvis Dumervil and Robert Ayers flying off the edge.

47. Rams: Ryan Williams, running back, Virginia Tech.

The Rams haven't taken upgrading their No. 2 tailback spot seriously enough in recent drafts, but Steven Jackson's career low 3.76 yards per carry will spur G.M. Billy Devaney to act. He's known to be strongly considering Alabama's Mark Ingram at No. 14 overall if Julio Jones is off the board.

48: Raiders: Stefen Wisniewski, center/guard, Penn State.

The Raiders recently hired Wisniewski's uncle, Steve, as an assistant offensive line coach, and happen to have pressing needs at guard and center. Wisniewski can play either position.

49. Jaguars: Rahim Moore, safety, UCLA.

It's no secret that Jacksonville had the worst safeties in football last season, and Moore is the best one in this year's draft. He could help make up for Shack Harris' 2007 miss on Reggie Nelson.

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50: Chargers: Leonard Hankerson, wide receiver, Miami.

Hankerson catapulted his stock with a 4.43 forty at the Combine. He isn't that explosive on the field, but The U's all-time touchdown catches leader still projects as a quality No. 2 NFL wideout.

51. Buccaneers: Randall Cobb, wide receiver, Kentucky.

The Bucs have a highly promising young offensive nucleus, but could use more team speed. With 4.45 wheels, Cobb would be a major upgrade over Sammie Stroughter as a slot receiver.

52. Giants: Orlando Franklin, tackle/guard, Miami.

Some draft analysts (Todd McShay, Nolan Nawrocki) have Franklin going late in the first round, but the college left tackle projects as a guard in the NFL. Guards rarely are picked in the top 32.

53. Colts: Drake Nevis, defensive tackle, LSU.

A one-gap penetrator, Nevis paced No. 8-ranked LSU in tackles for loss as a senior. At 6-foot-1 and 298 pounds, Nevis fits the mold of an up-the-field interior pass rusher for the Colts' Cover 2.

54. Eagles: Mason Foster, linebacker, Washington.

The quintessential 4-3 outside linebacker, Foster wreaked havoc on the Pac 10 with eight forced fumbles, 8.5 sacks, and 21.5 tackles for loss in his final two years. This is a sore spot for Philly.

55: Chiefs: Jonathan Baldwin, wide receiver, Pittsburgh.

Baldwin has first-round talent, but on- and off-field character concerns will cost him on draft day. He's drawn comparisons to James Hardy for an inability to beat press coverage off the line.

56. Saints: Bruce Carter, linebacker, North Carolina.

Carter tore his ACL in October, but received a clean bill of health from Dr. James Andrews and will resume football activities in May. If healthy, he would've been in the first-round conversation.

57. Seahawks: Andy Dalton, quarterback, TCU.

ESPN's Trent Dilfer swears Dalton is a first-rounder, but the two-time Mountain West Conference Player of the Year's arm strength falls short of impressive. With a skill set similar to Kevin Kolb's, however, Dalton will appeal to new Seahawks coordinator Darrell Bevell as a West Coast passer.

58. Ravens: James Carpenter, tackle/guard, Alabama.

Andre Smith's successor as Alabama's left tackle, Carpenter projects as an NFL right tackle at 6'5/313 with 34-inch arms. He'd play there in Baltimore, allowing Marshal Yanda to kick inside.

59: Falcons: Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State.

Atlanta is desperate for a field stretcher to complement Roddy White with Tony Gonzalez slipping. Young can play inside and out, making life easier for Matt Ryan as Mike Mularkey more fully implements a vertical offense. Harry Douglas and Michael Jenkins aren't getting the job done.

60. Patriots: Ras-I Dowling, defensive back, Virginia.

Dowling can play both corner and safety, bringing an element of versatility the Patriots value in defensive backs. Dowling was also recruited to UVA by longtime Bill Belichick crony Al Groh.

61. Chargers: Martez Wilson, linebacker, Illinois.

Wilson's Combine measurables were of first-round ilk, but the consensus among scouts is that his game tape isn't. Regardless, Wilson has sideline-to-sideline speed and plays a position at which San Diego risks losing two starters. Stephen Cooper and Kevin Burnett are both free agents.

62. Bears: Marvin Austin, defensive tackle, North Carolina.

Drafting defensive tackles with each of their first two picks seems like overkill, but the Bears are dangerously thin at the position with Tommie Harris gone and Anthony Adams a free agent. Austin would be the nose tackle to Corey Liuget's "three technique," with Henry Melton rotating in.

63. Steelers: Kenrick Ellis, defensive tackle, Hampton.

A mammoth man at 6'5/336 with 35-inch arms, Ellis is a raw talent with enormous long-term potential. The Steelers could groom him to be 34-year-old Casey Hampton's eventual successor.

64. Packers: Rodney Hudson, guard/center, Florida State.

Hudson plays bigger than his size (6'2/291) and is an outstanding athlete coming off an extremely decorated college career. He could start day one in place of free agent left guard Daryn Colledge.

 

[HacheMan]

Team Notes: AFC South, West
Last Friday, we analyzed the team-by-team offseason news in the AFC East and North. Now we'll turn our attention to the rest of the AFC teams.

[SIZE=+1]AFC South[/SIZE]

Colts: Peyton Manning was slapped with a $23.1 million franchise tag, though he'll likely play the 2011 season under a new long-term deal to stay in Indy. … Joseph Addai, a five-year vet, was tendered as a restricted free agent -- a sign the Colts want him back. Depending on the CBA, his free agency could end up unrestricted. … The Colts aren't expected to bring back 32-year-old free agent Dominic Rhodes, even if they clearly don't trust Donald Brown as a primary ball carrier. … Austin Collie is said to be "coming along well" in his recovery from three serious concussions. Despite speculation to the contrary, Collie has not threatened to retire after his next concussion. He's a worthwhile risk/reward fantasy target this year. … Dallas Clark (wrist surgery) will be ready for the typical start of training camp. Late-season star Jacob Tamme will be worthless outside of deep Dynasty leagues where he can serve as a Clark handcuff. … The Colts are expected to re-sign free agent K Adam Vinatieri.

Jaguars: David Garrard returns as the unquestioned starter after exceeding low expectations last season. Backup Luke McCown (ACL surgery) was re-signed to a one-year deal, and the Jags are expected to target a developmental QB in next month's draft. … We have red-flagged Maurice Jones-Drew for the future after he confirmed that his left knee was "bone-on-bone" by the end of the season. MJD underwent meniscus surgery to fix the condition; it wouldn't surprise us if it turns out the procedure was microfracture in nature. … Free agent Mike Sims-Walker fell out of favor with the coaching staff last season, and the Jags recently let it be known that they are moving on without him. … Mike Thomas is the favorite to enter the season as the No. 1 receiver. Depending on offseason moves, Jason Hill is worth monitoring as Sims-Walker's replacement and a possible deep sleeper. … Jarett Dillard (toe) is back to full health, but he'll enter camp behind Hill on the depth chart. … Still a candidate for a long-term deal, Marcedes Lewis was hit with the franchise tag in February.

Texans: Due a $1.3 million raise, backup QB Dan Orlovsky is a candidate for release. Third-stringer Matt Leinart, a five-year vet, was tendered at the first-round level. … Arian Foster underwent a minor knee scope after the season. It's not a fantasy concern. Foster is a candidate for a long-term deal this summer. … Derrick Ward was re-signed to a one-year deal to compete with a healthy Ben Tate for the primary backup job. The winner will be an important handcuff for Foster owners. … Now persona non grata in the Houston backfield, Steve Slaton could be on the trade block once the CBA is finalized. … The Texans have placed a priority on bringing back free agent Jacoby Jones, but he could end up hitting the open market. His untapped potential would draw plenty of interest from receiver-needy teams. … Owen Daniels was re-signed to a four-year, $22 million contract, undercutting any sleeper value James Casey or Joel Dreessen may have had. After a strong finish to the 2010 season, Daniels has reclaimed a stake in TE1 territory. … Former Cowboys coach Wade Phillips was imported to revamp the Texans' soft defense. Mario Williams and Antonio Smith will start at defensive end in Phillips' 3-4 scheme, with Connor Barwin moving into the starting lineup as an edge rusher. Brian Cushing will move inside next to "Mo" backer DeMeco Ryans.

Titans: After wearing out his welcome in Nashville, Vince Young will likely end up being released once the CBA is finalized. The most likely scenario is signing with a team such as the Vikings or Dolphins to compete for the starting job in camp. … The Titans will have to bring in a veteran (anyone but Kerry Collins, please) stopgap even if they draft an early-round developmental QB. … New offensive coordinator Chris Palmer plans to take advantage of Chris Johnson's unique talents with a run-heavy offense in 2011, targeting an unrealistic 35:30 per game run-to-pass ratio. Johnson remains a no-brainer top-three fantasy pick. … Kenny Britt had planned to spend the offseason focusing on his conditioning and diet. He's going unsupervised during the lockout, though. … Justin Gage is a poor bet to remain on the roster with a $3.5 million base salary. There's even talk that last year's third-rounder, Damian Williams, could move into the starting lineup -- pushing Nate Washington down the depth chart. Williams is a name to track in deeper leagues this summer. … Despite one report to the contrary (likely from agent Drew Rosenhaus), the Titans never considered bringing in Jeremy Shockey at tight end. After a promising showing in December, Jared Cook will remain in the starting lineup as one of our favorite fantasy breakout candidates.

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AFC West:

Broncos: Veteran loving head coach John Fox has placed Kyle Orton atop the depth chart "right now" with Tim Tebow still viewed as a developmental QB. If the two are still on the roster by training camp, expect a battle for the starting job. The league's top fantasy QB in the last three games of 2010, Tebow is a nice trade target in Dynasty leagues while Fox publicly waffles. … Fox has also made it clear that Knowshon Moreno will have company in the backfield, which is hardly a surprise. Correll Buckhalter is a candidate for release, leaving the cupboard bare behind Moreno. It's too early to say with confidence that the Broncos will move to a committee attack. Moreno has three-down skills if he can shake injuries. … Promising young play-maker Demaryius Thomas is undraftable after tearing his Achilles' tendon in February. Though the injury is no longer an automatic death sentence, NFL skill position players struggle to stay healthy and regain pre-injury form after surgery. … Joining Thomas in the operating room was Eddie Royal, who underwent hip surgery with a six-month recovery timetable. He'll be touch-and-go for the start of training camp. … Brandon Lloyd is locked in as the No. 1 receiver, but he's not going to repeat last year's fantasy success with the run-heavy Fox replacing the most pass-happy play-caller in the league. … Veteran Daniel Graham was released, leaving Denver with a void at tight end.

Chargers: Free agent QB Billy Volek could end up following Ron Rivera to Carolina. … Ryan Mathews and restricted free agent Mike Tolbert are expected to rotate early next season based on matchups and the hot hand. We suspect Mathews will start with Tolbert worked in for short-yardage and third downs. Mathews will be a high-risk bounceback candidate while constantly looking over his shoulder at Tolbert. … Free agent change-of-pace back Darren Sproles will be allowed to seek greener pastures on the open market. … GM A.J. Smith has found a way to keep Vincent Jackson in San Diego for one more season, applying the franchise tag last month. V-Jax is once again knocking on the door to WR1 status as Philip Rivers' top receiver. … The Bolts aim to keep Malcom Floyd, and he was tendered as a restricted free agent despite his five years of service. His freedom hinges on the CBA deal. … Antonio Gates avoided surgery on his painful plantar fascia injury, and he's expected to be healthy through rest and rehab by training camp. Gates had essentially lapped the field at tight end before the injury popped up at mid-season last year.

Chiefs: The Chiefs are expected to pick up Matt Cassel's $7.5 million option bonus this offseason after his 27:7 TD-to-INT ratio last year. Note that he was still just 26th in completion percentage (58.2) despite playing the league's softest pass defense schedule. He's not a fantasy starter. … Coach Todd Haley confirmed that Thomas Jones, owner of a 2.3 YPC over the final quarter of the season, will return at age 33 in 2011. … Haley has also considered making Dexter McCluster his designated third-down back. Don't let any of this scare you off Jamaal Charles, who is simply too talented to keep off the field. Charles will pick up early-down carries at Jones' expense and remains a top-six fantasy pick. With 2010 play-caller Charlie Weis out of the picture, Haley wants to run a "meat and potatoes" offense, relying on the ground game to compliment an improving defense. … After spending most of the 2010 season in the doghouse, Chris Chambers is expected to be released this summer. The Chiefs will look to the draft or free agency to find a starter opposite Dwayne Bowe. … NFL sack leader Tamba Hali was hit with the franchise tag.

Raiders: Cross QB of the Raiders' shopping list. Owner Al Davis and head coach Hue Jackson are moving on from Bruce Gradkowski, making it abundantly clear that Jason Campbell is the undisputed offensive leader for 2011. Gradkowski will sign elsewhere as a backup after being non-tendered. … Even after a February DWI arrest, free agent Michael Bush was tendered at the highest possible level (first- and third-round). There's some sentiment that Bush's free agency will be restricted regardless of the CBA outcome because he missed his first year in the NFL while recovering from a broken leg. The upshot is that Bush will likely return to Oakland as Darren McFadden's handcuff. … Hue Jackson stated emphatically that late-season star Jacoby Ford will become a bigger part of the offense in 2011. Ford should be the first Oakland receiver off the board in fantasy drafts this summer, return-yardage leagues or no. Ford posted as many combined receiving and rushing yards in the second half of his rookie year as Darrius Heyward-Bey has recorded in two full seasons. … Like Bush, free agent TE Zach Miller was tendered at the highest possible level. Unlike Bush, there's a good chance he will hit the open market if four-year veterans end up unrestricted. The Raiders are expected to do "everything in their power" to keep him.

 

[HacheMan]

Team Notes: NFC East, North
[SIZE=+1]NFC East[/SIZE]

Cowboys: Tony Romo is fully recovered from last year's broken left collarbone, and his throwing motion is back to normal. Boasting one of the most dangerous offensive arsenals in the league, he's a fantasy QB to target after Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers are off the board. … While coach Jason Garrett expressed confidence in Felix Jones' ability to shoulder a heavier workload, he also made it clear that he will continue a multi-back approach in 2011. … Marion Barber has a $500k roster bonus due in June (in addition to a $4.25 million base salary). The Cowboys have been tight-lipped about MBIII's future. It's worth noting that he has no guaranteed money remaining on his contract.

The team's brass remains committed to Dez Bryant despite a recent string of lawsuits and flashing neon signs of reckless immaturity. We're advising Dynasty and Keeper leaguers to buy or hold right now as opposed to selling. Bryant has the difference-making talent to haunt ship-jumpers, and he's just received a much-needed wake-up call. … Roy Williams is due $9.25 million in 2011. Even with Bryant's issues, there's no chance Roy Boy sees that money. He'll have to take a major paycut to stay in Dallas as the No. 3 receiver. … Add CB Terrence Newman ($8 million non-guaranteed salary) and RT Marc Colombo to the list of candidates for release, especially if those positions are addressed early in the draft.

Eagles: Comeback Player of the Year Michael Vick signed his $15.975 million franchise tender, and the Eagles will likely begin long-term talks after the CBA is finalized. … All signs point to Kevin Kolb being dealt to the highest bidder as soon as the trading season kicks off. Kolb is entering a contract year, so the Eagles will extract as much value as possible before losing his rights. The Seahawks and Cardinals are expected to be his most ardent suitors. … Jerome Harrison has now accrued five NFL seasons, so his restricted free agent tender may not hold up. If he's set free, it will be interesting to see if Brian Westbrook returns to Philly as LeSean McCoy's backup.

DeSean Jackson is now healthy after sustaining a Grade 2 MCL sprain in the playoff loss to the Packers. Getting the homerun hitter locked up under a long-term deal is believed to be the franchise's second offseason priority behind the potential Kolb trade. … K David Akers is seeking a long-term deal. The Eagles slapped him with the transition tag in the mean time.

Giants: Eli Manning caught flack from the coaching staff after leading the NFL with 25 interceptions last season. The pendulum could swing back to a more conservative offensive approach in 2011. … The Giants extended a second-round tender to four-year veteran Ahmad Bradshaw. Pending the outcome of the labor scene, he could end up on the open market with GM Jerry Reese potentially entering a bidding war. Bradshaw underwent an ankle scope after the season, the fourth procedure on his feet in the last two years. … Brandon Jacobs conceded that he may need to restructure his contract, though coach Tom Coughlin has suggested that the big back's workload will increase this season. We're tentatively expecting to see Jacobs and Bradshaw both back in the Big Apple.

Steve Smith is in the same boat as Bradshaw, a fourth-year vet with a second-round tender. Even though he's coming off serious microfracture knee surgery that could jeopardize his Week 1 status, Smith believes the Giants will end up re-signing him even if he hits the open market. Mario Manningham is the better fantasy target of the two regardless. … Kevin Boss, coming off minor hip surgery, was also extended a second-round tender as a four-year veteran. Reminder: Reese had an exceptional draft in 2007.

Redskins: Donovan McNabb isn't expected to draw much interest beyond a stopgap solution, which leaves him devoid of trade value. He'll sign with a team such as the Vikings, Titans, or Bengals as the bridge to a developmental QB. … Free agent Rex Grossman is the current favorite to open the season as the Redskins' starter. … Clinton Portis was released, leaving Ryan Torain alone atop the depth chart. Torain is fully expected to share the backfield with a draft pick or free-agent pickup by the end of summer. Sell now in Dynasty leagues.

Free agent Santana Moss' preference is to re-sign with the Redskins once the CBA is finalized. The 'Skins have been connected to Alabama's Julio Jones, though receiver could be seen as a luxury at No. 10 overall. … Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson noted that Chris Cooley looked "noticeably slower" in 2010. With the QB position in flux, he's a player to avoid in fantasy drafts. … FS O.J. Atogwe signed a five-year, $26 million deal, allowing "box" SS LaRon Landry to continue to play close to the line of scrimmage.

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NFC North:

Bears: The Bears' front office has stood steadfastly behind Jay Cutler as the franchise QB in the face of harsh criticism directed his way in the NFC Championship game. … Coordinator Mike Martz continues to waffle on Caleb Hanie as the No. 2 QB, though coach Lovie Smith and GM Jerry Angelo are now believers. All involved refuse to acknowledge last year's costly mistake of pushing a washed-up Todd Collins back ahead of Hanie on the depth chart. … The team has begun "preliminary" extension talks with Matt Forte, who is fifth in the league in yards from scrimmage the past three years. Chester Taylor, on the other hand, may have to stave off competition to keep his backup job after running with a fork sticking out of his back throughout last season.

The Bears don't intend to increase Devin Hester's snap count on offense, and Martz has even suggested a bigger role for Earl Bennett in 2011. Johnny Knox remains the only Windy City receiver worth drafting in standard scoring leagues. … Devin Aromashodu will find a new home this year after the Bears failed to tender him a restricted free agent offer. … Angelo claims that Greg Olsen's role will grow in his second season under Martz. Heavy skepticism is advised.

Lions: Matthew Stafford (collarbone) has resumed throwing passes, reporting no discomfort after a heavy passing session. He'll be 100 percent by training camp as a high upside QB2. … The front office saw dramatic improvement in Drew Stanton last season, and they aim to keep him as a restricted free agent. … Jahvid Best is fully recovered from the twin turf toe injuries that ruined his rookie season. Coach Jim Schwartz made it clear that he has no concerns about his feature back entering year number two, though the Lions may add a big-back complement in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft after parting with Kevin Smith. There's no doubting Best's playmaking ability. We like the Brian Westbrook clone as a "buy" in keeper and Dynasty formats.

Calvin Johnson is now "grateful" to be playing for the Lions after closing out the season on a four-game winning streak. His rookie deal goes through 2012. … Drop-prone third receiver Bryant Johnson is unlikely to return at a $3.2 million base salary. … Long-time kicker Jason Hanson may have to beat out Dave Rayner to keep his job after leg injuries ruined his 2010 season.

Packers: Coach Mike McCarthy poured cold water on the notion that backup QB Matt Flynn could be had for a second-day draft pick. The Packers need a strong backup to Aaron Rodgers, victim of two 2010 concussions, more than they need another draft pick. … McCarthy also confirmed that he expects Ryan Grant and James Starks to compete for carries this season. Grant is due a $1 million bonus on the 15th day of the new league year, but he doesn't seem to be in any danger of getting the axe. We suspect Grant will enter training camp atop the depth chart, though fantasy production will be inconsistent with a potential "hot hand" situation brewing.

Super Bowl hero Jordy Nelson will not require surgery for the bursa sac injury that affected him on the final drive in Dallas. He's already leapfrogged James Jones in the team's plans, and there's a good chance he'll be targeted more than Donald Driver in 2011. We're high on Nelson as a Dynasty league "buy." … Jones was tendered as a restricted free agent, but the Packers are expected to let him walk if he ends up on the open market once the CBA is finalized. … Driver confirmed that he has no intention of retiring soon, and the Packers will apparently bring him back on his $5 million salary. He has a long offseason to get over his multiple leg injuries from 2010. … Stud TE Jermichael Finley (knee) is expected to be at full strength whenever offseason practices begin.

Vikings: Coach Leslie Frazier "ideally" would draft a quarterback in the first or second round to compete with project Joe Webb this summer. Don't rule out a veteran stopgap such as Donovan McNabb or Vince Young as well. V.Y.'s old QB's coach Craig Johnson is now on Frazier's staff. ... Brett Favre isn't coming back for a 21st NFL season. Seriously. He's done. … VP of player personnel Rick Spielman will work toward a contract extension for Adrian Peterson once there is a new CBA in place. Incentives and escalators have pushed ADP's 2011 salary to $10.2 million.

The Vikes will do "everything possible" to re-sign Sidney Rice, who was tendered at the first-round level. If Rice ends up making it to the open market, he will be the top receiver on the shopping list of more than a few teams. Rumors that Rice is still dealing with an arthritic condition in his hip have turned up empty thus far. … Frazier's coaching staff plans to feature Percy Harvin with a larger offensive role, which could lead to a reduction in return responsibilities. … There is no immediate plan to cut ties with Bernard Berrian, but we remain unconvinced that he'll return on a $3.9 base salary. … Even in Bill Musgraves' tight-end friendly offense, Visanthe Shiancoe's arrow is pointing down. His fantasy production will take a hit with Favre out of the picture.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: The Running Backs
The 2011 running back class lacks elite talent. There is no Adrian Peterson. No member possesses a size-speed combination like Darren McFadden or even Jonathan Stewart. (Aside from, perhaps, Roy Helu. More on him in a bit.)

Mark Ingram is considered the only likely first-round back, and even he isn't a lock for the top 32, according to NFL Network's Mike Lombardi. Lombardi and former longtime NFL GM Charley Casserly, however, have praised the depth and quality of running backs projected to go in rounds two and three.

Our latest mock didn't have a single running back in the first round, and it wasn't a mistake. It's not a premium position in the NFL. The league's leading rusher was an undrafted free agent in 2010, and the postseason's top rusher was a sixth-round pick. LeGarrette Blount was the best rookie running back in football. Blount was not drafted last April, and he got cut out of Titans camp.

These backs won't come off the board quickly over the weekend of April 28-30. But they'll continue to be the heart and soul of fantasy football teams.

Let's have a closer look at this year's crop.

[SIZE=+1]1. Mark Ingram, Alabama[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 5'9/215
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine #s: 4.62 forty, 1.55 10-yd split, 21 x 225, 31.5" vertical, 9'5" broad jump, 4.62 ss
Style Comparison: Ray Rice
2010 Stats: 158 - 875 (5.5) - 13 Tds; 21 - 282 (13.4) - 1 Td
Draft Prediction: Patriots, No. 33 overall.

Positives: Ingram is NFL ready every way you slice it. He played in a pro-style college offense, is versed in blitz pickup, catches the football naturally, and consistently busts through arm tackles. A former four-star recruit, Ingram took over as Alabama's starting tailback after Glen Coffee left for the pros in 2009. Ingram won the Heisman in his first year on the job, setting a single-season school rushing record (1,648). He lost two fumbles on 632 career touches, scored 60 touchdowns, and averaged 5.70 yards per carry in college football's toughest conference. Ingram has the best balance of any running back in the 2011 class. Though he didn't run a top forty time in Indianapolis, Ingram's elite short-area acceleration was evident in his impressive ten-yard split, a full tenth of a second faster than the running back average from last year's Combine.

Negatives: Ingram is not a special athlete. He shed 10-15 pounds following the college season, but his 4.62 forty ranked 20th out of 33 running backs who ran in Indy. Ingram's 31 1/2-inch vertical ranked 27th, bettering only USC's Allen Bradford and four fullback types. Ingram underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in August of 2010, and recent reports indicate NFL teams have concerns about his longevity as well as the possibility of degenerative arthritis in the joint.

Outlook: Ingram projects as a three-down back on day one, and workhorse in the NFL. While the decreasing value of the position Ingram plays may ultimately keep him out of the top-20 picks, he's a safe bet for immediate production. There are few weaknesses in Ingram's game.

[SIZE=+1]2. Mikel Leshoure, Illinois[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'0/227
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine #s: 4.56 forty, 1.53 10-yd split, 21 x 225, 38" vertical, 10'2" broad jump, 4.40 ss
Style Comparison: Rashard Mendenhall
2010 Stats: 281 - 1,697 (6.0) - 17 Tds; 17 - 196 (11.5) - 3 Tds
Draft Prediction: Bengals, No. 35 overall.

Positives: Leshoure is the most powerfully built back in this top five, and has drawn comparisons to Steven Jackson for his running style, size, and speed. Carrying 12 more pounds, Leshoure beat out Ingram in every athletic test at the Combine after a far more productive 2010 campaign. Leshoure set Illini single-season rushing and touchdown records as a junior, and his 6.03 career YPC average is fourth in the class behind only backs from Nevada, Hawaii, and D-IAA Eastern Washington. Really only a one-year starter at Illinois, Leshoure has little wear on his tires and was at his best when given heavy workloads. He flashes exceptional physicality, is rarely caught from behind, and is quick enough to make linebackers and some defensive backs miss.

Negatives: Leshoure only had 424 career carries, all in a spread offense. He'll be fairly difficult for NFL decision makers to evaluate because of the sample size and system. Leshoure caught 37 passes in three years at Illinois and is inexperienced in blitz protection. He probably won't help on any third downs initially. Leshoure is considered raw in terms of vision, how to use his body, and most finer points of the position. Character may be a concern. Leshoure missed three games as a freshman after breaking his jaw in a fight with Illini tight end Jeff Cumberland. As a sophomore, Leshoure was suspended one game for another violation of team rules.

Outlook: Leshoure has a better chance to be a home-run pick than Ingram because of his superior size, speed, and long-term upside. The arrow is pointing skyward for the recently turned 21-year-old. With a skill set suited for all offenses, he projects as a value anywhere in round two.

[SIZE=+1]3. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 5'9/212
College Experience: Third-year sophomore
Combine #s: 4.59 forty, 1.53 10-yd split, 19 x 225, 40" vertical, 10'3" broad jump, 4.18 ss
Style Comparison: Thomas Jones
2010 Stats: 110 - 477 (4.3) - 9 Tds; 10 - 109 (10.9) - 1 Td
Draft Prediction: Rams, No. 47 overall.

Positives: The nation's No. 4 tailback recruit out of high school, Williams exploded onto the college scene as a redshirt freshman, setting the Hokies' single-season rushing record (1,655 yards) and scoring 22 TDs to garner ACC Rookie of the Year honors. He was also consensus first-team all-conference in 2009. An angry, muscle-bound runner, Williams is a broken tackle waiting to happen with his feet moving. He does not waste steps and consistently finishes runs. Williams plays with suddenness and is considered better in the pass game than his college stats indicate. He fights for every yard, draws high marks for work ethic, and rarely fumbled in college.

Negatives: 2010 was a disaster season for Williams. He tore his right hamstring in the third game of the year, missed a month, and lost his starting job to Darren Evans. Proneness to injury isn't new for Williams. He missed nine games combined as a high school sophomore and senior with various maladies, and also sprained an ankle after tearing the hamstring in 2010. Williams' relentlessly physical run style could be mostly to blame. Williams wasn't asked to pass protect much at Virginia Tech and only caught 26 passes in his college career. Throw out one 84-yard run last year, and he averaged 3.57 yards a carry. Evans' average was 5.66 for the season.

Outlook: Had Williams played a full, healthy 2010 season, we might be talking him up as the top back in the draft. He has dangerous talent. Ultimately, Williams may be another boom-or-bust type of prospect. He needs to overcome his injury history to become a featured NFL back.

[SIZE=+1]4. Roy Helu, Nebraska[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'0/219
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.4 forty, 1.51 10-yd split, 11 x 225, 36.5" vertical, 9'11" broad jump, 4.01 ss
Style Comparison: Felix Jones
2010 Stats: 188 - 1,245 (6.6) - 11 Tds; 5 - 46 (9.2) - 0 Tds
Draft Prediction: Colts, No. 119 overall.

Positives: Helu possesses ideal size and speed for the position, and his wheels show up in a 6.62 senior-year YPC average that ranks first among the top seven running backs on this list. His Combine forty time isn't a mirage. Helu is a home-run hitter with the ability to plant, make one cut, and go the distance. A second-team All-Big 12 honoree by the conference's coaches, Helu graduated as one of Nebraska's top-five all-time rushers despite sharing carries throughout his career. Helu also posted the top ten-yard split time by a running back at the Combine. He has big hands (10 1/8 inches) and flashes tackle-breaking power. Helu was a team captain in 2010.

Negatives: Helu needs a lot of weight-room work, and not just because he managed only 11 reps of 225 pounds in Indianapolis. He doesn't maximize his size, too often plays without physicality, and is highly inconsistent. Helu carries a pile six yards upfield on one play, and gets tackled one-on-one by a defensive back on the next. He benefited from a dominant front five in a weak Big 12 North; the Cornhuskers may have three offensive linemen picked in April. Draft analysts question Helu's vision, down-to-down competitiveness, ball security, and blocking.

Outlook: We like Helu because he has a sky-high ceiling. 220-pound tailbacks just don't run 4.4 flat with elite acceleration very often. But Helu is still a project after four years in college. His best fit would be with a team that relies heavily on zone blocking, and less on power plays.

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[SIZE=+1]5. Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 5'7/199
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.53 forty, 1.52 10-yd split, 24 x 225, 35" vertical, 10'2" broad jump, 4.21 ss
Style Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw
2010 Stats: 271 - 1,548 (5.7) - 16 Tds; 20 - 101 (5.1) - 0 Tds
Draft Prediction: Saints, No. 72 overall.

Positives: Twice a first-team All-Big 12 pick, Hunter left college ranked fourth in Cowboys history for rushing yards (4,181) and touchdowns (37), averaging 5.91 yards per career carry. He finished second to teammate Justin Blackmon in 2010 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year voting, and was a first-team All-Academic honoree. Built like Maurice Jones-Drew, Hunter has a thick base with powerful thighs and calves. He ran 4.43 at his Pro Day. Hunter didn't pass protect much in Oklahoma State's spread offense, but excelled in blitz pickup at the Senior Bowl. He caught 63 passes in college and is ready to play on passing downs. Hunter breaks more tackles than you'd expect from a sub-200 pound back. He also draws high marks for balance and vision.

Negatives: Hunter has a history of ankle problems. He fractured one of his ankles as a high school junior, and a high ankle sprain cost Hunter five games and his starting job to Keith Toston in 2009. Hunter won't break nearly as many tackles in the pros as he did in the Big 12, playing in Dana Holgorsen's high-flying spread. NFL teams won't view Hunter as a bell-cow back because of his size. Hunter is a slippery runner, but lacks outstanding moves and elusiveness.

Outlook: Tatum Bell has been the most productive Oklahoma State back since Barry Sanders. Assuming health, Hunter is a good bet to overtake Bell. He'll focus on passing downs initially, but could emerge as an effective 15-18 touch-per-game runner when opportunity arises.

[SIZE=+1]6. Daniel Thomas, Kansas State[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'0/230
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Combine #s: N/A (hamstring)
Style Comparison: Ahman Green
2010 Stats: 298 - 1,585 (5.3) - 19 Tds; 27 - 171 (6.3) - 0 Tds
Draft Prediction: Dolphins, No. 79 overall.

Positives/Negatives: One of the oldest backs in this class, Thomas turns 24 in October after bouncing around three JUCOs due to academic issues. He's had little commitment to or interest in education. Though Thomas was durable in college, he showed slow recover ability during the pre-draft process by sitting out the Senior Bowl, Combine, and K-State Pro Day with a hamstring injury. Thomas fumbled 12 times in 597 career touches. He led the Big 12 in rushing in each of his two years in Manhattan, however, and is a physical, between-the-tackles runner with underrated passing-game skills. Thomas caught 52 passes as a junior and senior and has excellent hands for a big back. He lacks breakaway speed but is a top-notch athlete at his size.

Outlook: Thomas is big, versatile, and has a nose for the end zone, scoring 30 rushing TDs in two seasons at D-I despite being the obvious focal point of defenses in an otherwise putrid Wildcats offense. While he probably doesn't project to have an especially long career, Thomas offers immediate workhorse potential for power run teams. He'd be a good value in round three.

[SIZE=+1]7. Bilal Powell, Louisville[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 5'11/207
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Pro Day #s: 4.54 forty, 18 x 225
Style Comparison: Ryan Grant
2010 Stats: 229 - 1,405 (6.1) - 11 Tds; 18 - 158 (8.8) - 3 Tds
Draft Prediction: Lions, No. 154 overall.

Positives/Negatives: Nowhere near the NFL radar entering his senior season, Powell transformed himself in 2010. Having averaged 4.51 YPC through three years, Powell exploded for a 6.14 mark to rank second in the Big East in rushing, behind only Jordan Todman (with 105 fewer carries). He may be dinged as a "one-year wonder" for this, but the light flipped on. Powell runs bigger than his size indicates, bounces off defenders, and was a tackle-breaking machine at Louisville. Though he lacks a true second gear, Powell flashes speed to go the distance and can cut on a dime in the open field. He invites contact. Powell has a long way to go to be a passing-game contributor. He averaged just over 11 catches per college season and rarely had to block.

Outlook: Powell is a solid prospect for a team willing to bring along a two-down back coming from a college spread offense. His initial impact may be as a No. 3 runner who can play special teams. Powell racked up a ton of tackles in kick and punt coverage early in his career.

[SIZE=+1]8. Taiwan Jones, Eastern Washington[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'0/194
College Experience: Fourth-year junior
Combine #s: N/A (foot surgery)
Style Comparison: Jerious Norwood
2010 Stats: 221 - 1,742 (7.9) - 14 Tds; 24 - 342 (14.2) - 3 Tds
Draft Prediction: Buccaneers, No. 84 overall.

Positives/Negatives: Jones has blinding speed. In pre-draft training, he was timed with a 1.4 ten-yard split, nearly a tenth of a second faster than the Combine's top split (Chimdi Chekwa, 1.51). Jones faced poor D-IAA competition, but his career 7.90 YPC average is easily the best in the draft. Jones was the 2010 Big Sky MVP, earning consensus first-team All-America honors despite missing all or parts of five games. A former starting cornerback in college, Jones only played running back for two years and has a high "ceiling." He excels in the pass game and is a special teams playmaker, running back two kicks for scores in his career. Jones' downfall is his lack of durability. He broke his fibula in 2008, injured both shoulders, underwent a sports hernia surgery, and missed the final four games of 2010 with a fractured fifth metatarsal in his left foot.

Outlook: If you're looking for a Jamaal Charles in this class, Jones is your best bet. Only time will tell whether he's physical enough to break tackles in the NFL -- let alone stay off the shelf -- but Jones is the fastest back in the draft, and perhaps the fastest player regardless of position.

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[SIZE=+1]9. Jordan Todman, Connecticut[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 5'9/203
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine #s: 4.4 forty, 1.53 10-yd split, 25 x 225, 38" vertical, 10'6" broad jump, 4.18 ss
Style Comparison: Jerome Harrison
2010 Stats: 334 - 1,695 (5.1) - 14 Tds; 19 - 94 (4.9) - 0 Tds
Draft Prediction: Falcons, No. 158 overall.

Positives/Negatives: Todman possesses elite speed and is an explosive athlete. A full-time player for just one season at UConn, Todman earned Big East Offensive Player of the Year honors as a third-year junior, finishing second in the nation in rushing. Todman offers kick return value, averaging 25.3 yards per attempt with a 96-yard scoring runback as a sophomore. He is not fluid in the pass game, however, which is a real concern for a back whose size may dictate mostly passing-down work. Todman averaged a meager 6.74 yards per career reception, and won't carry piles or break NFL linebackers' tackles. Todman wore down last season, averaging 3.29 yards per rush on his final 65 carries after posting a 5.50 mark on his first 269. He benefited from one of the top lead blockers (Anthony Sherman) and right guards (Zach Hurd) in the country.

Outlook: Randy Edsall's decidedly run-first system has made backs like Donald Brown and Andre Dixon look better than they are before. Todman's NFL career will be short if he doesn't dramatically improve his passing-game value. His game will have to change at the next level.

[SIZE=+1]10. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma[/SIZE]

Height/Weight: 6'0/213
College Experience: Fifth-year senior
Combine #s: 4.37 forty, 1.52 10-yd split, 21 x 225, 34.5" vertical, 10'10" broad, 4.18 ss
Style Comparison: Steve Slaton
2010 Stats: 282 - 1,214 (4.3) - 15 Tds; 71 - 594 (8.4) - 5 Tds
Draft Prediction: Eagles, No. 104 overall.

Positives/Negatives: Murray has a rare combo of size, speed, and acceleration. A natural athlete, Murray was a prized high school basketball player and easily could've played D-I hoops. Murray's calling card is the pass game. His 157 career catches are the most of any back in the draft, and he averaged a robust 10.01 yards per reception with 13 receiving TDs. He has special teams value, having brought back two kickoffs for touchdowns and averaged 27.6 yards on 53 career runbacks. Murray struggles to run inside the tackles, however, and lacks physicality in his overall game. He's exceptionally prone to injury. Murray redshirted in '06 due to turf toe, missed three games in '07 with a dislocated kneecap, and the 2008 BCS title game with a torn hamstring tendon that required surgery. He would average just 4.24 yards per carry in his final two seasons.

Outlook: Murray has a big name and helped himself with a big Combine, but he's likely to be drafted too early based on measurables. He lacks a high ceiling, and wasn't the same player late in his career after 759 carries. A well-run team won't invest in Murray before the fourth round.

11. Delone Carter, Syracuse - 4.56 at 5'9/222 ... 4.80 career YPC ... Just 20 catches ... No help in pass game ... Thick lower half, breaks tackles ... Character concerns: suspended in 2010 spring for punching fellow student ... Injury plagued 2007-08 ... Has reputation as a dancer.

12. Shane Vereen, Cal - 4.49 at 5'10/210 ... 5.10 career YPC ... 74 catches ... Only 19 career starts, playing behind Jahvid Best and Justin Forsett ... Lacks special talent ... Doesn't play as fast as he times ... Played in zone-blocking scheme ... Unimpressive history on kick returns.

13. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State - 4.64 at 5'6/196 ... 4.92 career YPC ... 151 catches ... Darren Sproles type with elite receiving skills ... Three-time first-team All-Pac 10 ... One career fumble in 939 touches ... Second in Beavers history in rushing ... Upside is complementary back.

14. Da'Rel Scott, Maryland - 4.34 at 5'11/211 ... 5.58 career YPC ... 48 catches ... Fastest forty among running backs at Combine, though 10-yard split less impressive ... Carry sharer with Dave Meggett's son at Maryland ... Injury plagued 2007 and 2009 ... Played in pro-style offense.

15. Jamie Harper, Clemson - 4.59 at 5'11/233 ... 4.22 career YPC (worst among RBs likely to be drafted) ... Intriguing size/burst combo ... 52 catches ... Sat behind C.J. Spiller, Andre Ellington ... 5-star high school recruit ... Well built for pass protection ... Possible third-down back.

Other RBs on the NFL draft radar - Johnny White (North Carolina), Evan Royster (Penn State), Allen Bradford (USC), Stevan Ridley (LSU), Graig Cooper (Miami), Dion Lewis (Pitt), Alex Green (Hawaii), Mario Fannin (Auburn), Noel Devine (West Virginia), Donald Buckram (UTEP), Anthony Allen (Georgia Tech), Derrick Locke (Kentucky), Baron Batch (Texas Tech), John Clay (Wisconsin), Darren Evans (Virginia Tech), Damien Berry (Miami), Chad Spann (Northern Illinois).

 

[HacheMan]

Team Notes: NFC South, West
[SIZE=+1]NFC South[/SIZE]

Buccaneers: Backup QB Josh Johnson has been the subject of trade rumors that would reunite him with college coach Jim Harbaugh as the 49ers' stopgap starter. Thus far, the rumors have been comprised of little more than obvious dot connecting. … Josh Freeman earned a 2.2 "bad decision rate" in ESPN's K.C. Joyner's metrics, a sign that he's made excellent progress in reading NFL defenses. … LeGarrette Blount topped Pro Football Focus' "Elusive Rating" for running backs in 2010, leading the NFL in forced missed tackles. Blount's current 2.12 ADP is high for a player with no role in the passing game. … The Bucs are expected to re-sign Cadillac Williams rather than bringing in Tiki Barber as Blount's passing-down complement. … Still limping more than four months removed from major reconstructive surgery, Kareem Huggins' NFL future is now in doubt.

Arrelious Benn is "way ahead of schedule" in his recovery from a December torn ACL. While he should be ready for the start of training camp, Benn isn't draftable in standard-sized leagues. … Keep an eye on second-year WR Dez Briscoe as a potential depth-chart climber after posting a 4/65/1 line in the season finale. … Aqib Talib could see extended prison time after allegedly shooting at his sister's boyfriend in March. The Bucs are expected to seriously consider releasing the troubled shutdown corner once the lockout ends.

Falcons: Backup RB Jason Snelling was extended a second-round tender as a four-year veteran. Even if his free agency ends up unrestricted, he's not a good bet to land a starting job on the open market. … The Falcons are expected to move on from injury-prone five-year vet Jerious Norwood. … Wide receiver and tight end will be early-round priorities in this month's draft. With Tony Gonzalez in a steep decline, the Falcons desperately need a second playmaker to pair with Roddy White. Slot receiver Harry Douglas isn't the answer. … Jack-of-all-trades Kerry Meier, considered Brian Finneran's successor, is ahead of schedule in his return from last summer's ACL tear. He won't be a fantasy factor in 2011.

Panther: Auburn's Cam Newton is the current favorite to go to Carolina as the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Coach Ron Rivera doesn't consider Jimmy Clausen the incumbent starter, and GM Marty Hurney is reportedly the only member of the front office or coaching staff still maintaining faith in last year's second-rounder. … DeAngelo Williams, a five-year veteran, was tendered at the first- and third-round level. If he ends up on the open market as the top back available, it's hard to believe the Panthers will compete with other offers. We see the Dolphins and Redskins as his most likely suitors. … In nine starts with Williams sidelined the past two seasons, Jonathan Stewart has averaged 111.3 yards on 19.8 carries (5.6 yards per attempt). Provided he stays healthy, Stewart would boast top-10 fantasy potential as a feature back. Mike Goodson would likely take over as the passing-down specialist in that scenario.

Unhappy with his quarterback situation, Steve Smith asked owner Jerry Richardson for a trade early last season. New coach Ron Rivera suggested that wish could be granted this offseason, but the lockout complicates matters. With a legit QB, Smith would regain WR1 potential. … Rivera wants new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski to use Armanti Edwards like he used Josh Cribbs in Cleveland a few years ago. Still plenty raw, Edwards won't have fantasy value in 2011. … Jeremy Shockey was brought in as a key piece in Chud's tight-end friendly offense, though we'd advise steering clear considering the Panthers' QB woes.

Saints: Coach Sean Payton confirmed that Drew Brees played much of the 2010 season with a "low grade" MCL injury. Brees is expected to negotiate a long-term contract once the CBA is finalized, though he's not likely to sign until Peyton Manning sets the market. … Pierre Thomas is expected to be ready for training camp after undergoing an extensive arthroscopic procedure on his ankle. Armed with a new four-year contract, Thomas is a good bet to return to the lead-back role in 2011. His fantasy upside is capped by the presence of power back Chris Ivory, who is making impressive progress in his rehab from Lisfranc surgery. … Reggie Bush is expected to restructure his contract to stay in New Orleans as an offensive role player. He'll be over-drafted in fantasy leagues yet again.

Marques Colston underwent post-season scopes on his knee and his wrist, his fifth and sixth known surgeries since March of 2008. With five knee surgeries under his belt, Colston's Dynasty league outlook is shakier than the typical WR1. … Robert Meachem underwent an ankle procedure of his own, his third surgery in three years as a pro. He's entering a contract year in 2011. … Five-year vet Lance Moore drew a second-round tender, but could end up on the open market pending free agent rules. Reports out of New Orleans suggest Brees will pressure the team to bring Moore back. … Coach Sean Payton confirmed that freakishly talented TE Jimmy Graham's late-season emergence led directly to Jeremy Shockey's release. There's not a better breakout candidate at the position this year.

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NFC West:

49ers: Coach Jim Harbaugh has repeatedly talked up free agent Alex Smith, presumably as a fallback option in case the lockout drags on through the summer. The Niners are a lead-pipe lock to draft an early-round QB unless they manage to pry Kevin Kolb away from the Eagles. Candidates for the Week 1 gig resemble a Hollywood Squares panel at this point. … Frank Gore (hip fracture) has already been fully cleared to resume football activities. New coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Trent Baalke have both stated that Gore will continue to be a workhorse in the final year of his contract. He remains a top-10 fantasy pick. … Harbaugh made it clear that Anthony Dixon will be Gore's primary backup. Brian Westbrook won't return to San Fran.

49ers quarterbacks produced a 113.8 passer rating when targeting Vernon Davis in 2010 compared to 85.3 to Josh Morgan and 64.8 to Michael Crabtree. We wouldn't count on a breakout season for Crabtree unless he sees a major QB upgrade. … K Joe Kedney is expected to face competition for his job this summer.

Cardinals: The Cardinals are expected to give strong consideration to Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert if he's still around at No. 5 overall. A better way to appease Larry Fitzgerald would be to import a veteran upgrade, and Arizona has been heavily linked to both Kevin Kolb and Marc Bulger. It should be clear that John Skelton isn't the answer after failing to complete even 50 percent of his passes in a late-season trial run. … The coaching staff attributes Beanie Wells' disappointing 2010 season to a September torn meniscus that plagued him throughout the year. A fully recovered Wells would be a strong bounce-back candidate. We'll be tracking training camp reports closely to see if he's recaptured his rookie-year form. We still prefer Wells to the more pedestrian Tim Hightower if both backs are healthy.

The front office remains confident that Fitzgerald will sign a new deal to remain in the desert. Fitz wields plenty of leverage, as the Cards will have to shell out $23 million to franchise tag him in 2012. … Four-year vet Steve Breaston drew a first-round tender offer. The Cardinals aren't expected to compete with other offers if he makes it to the open market. Early Doucet and Andre Roberts would see increased snaps should Breaston sign elsewhere.

Rams: Sam Bradford will return to a shotgun-heavy offense similar to the one he ran in college with pass-happy coordinator Josh McDaniels taking over. Even with offseason practices in danger of being lost, Bradford's fantasy arrow is pointing up. … The Rams are expected to draft a change-of-pace back this month, with a successor to Steven Jackson possibly on the docket for the 2012 draft. While the offense should see continued improvement, S-Jax's 3.38 YPC from Week 12 on is a red flag. It's not a bad idea to shop Jackson around in Dynasty and keeper leagues after he finished in the bottom quarter of metrics compiled Pro Football Focus as well as Football Outsiders.

Brittle breakout candidate Danario Alexander has had no issues with his troublesome left knee this offseason. His fantasy outlook could take a hit if the Rams manage to nab Alabama's Julio Jones at No. 14 overall, as many suspect. GM Billy Devaney will be in the market for a free agent addition if Jones escapes his grasp. … Donnie Avery is right on schedule in his return from ACL surgery. Like the rest of the receiver corps, Avery will be an injury risk in 2011. … Perennial fantasy tease Laurent Robinson is expected to be on the roster bubble this summer. … The Rams tight ends are undraftable in McDaniels' tight-end unfriendly offense.

Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck was "miles" away from signing a new deal before the CBA deadline, and it now looks like Seattle will go in a different direction at QB. If the Seahawks don't manage to land Kevin Kolb, there's a good chance Charlie Whitehurst will open the season as the starter with an early-round pick waiting in the wings. … Leon Washington signed a four-year, $12.5 million contract to return as the explosive kick-return specialist. He's the clear third wheel in the backfield behind Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett.

Starting receivers Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu also signed long-term deals. Obomanu didn't get starter's money, and Williams' contract isn't worth the paper its printed on if he doesn't show up in shape after the lockout. … Deon Butler is no lock to make the Week 1 roster after suffering a double fracture in his right leg late last season. … Coach Pete Carroll still has high hopes for Golden Tate, but it's clear that talent will be imported at the position this offseason. The depth chart is in flux leading up to the draft. … K Olindo Mare intends to give Seattle a "hometown discount" once free agency kicks off.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: NFL Mock 4.0
The NFL draft is just over two weeks away, and a consensus is forming for the top three picks. Assuming no trades, I'd put a 95 percent chance on Cam Newton going first to Carolina, 98 percent on Marcell Dareus to Denver, and 85 percent on Von Miller to Buffalo. The Bills covet Newton, but they will take the 2010 Butkus Award winner if the Heisman winner goes off the board ahead of them.

The wild card is Cincinnati.

As SI's Peter King told PFT Live Monday, "I will not believe the Bengals aren't taking Blaine Gabbert until I see it with my own eyes." Popular mock-draft thinking has Mike Brown's team drafting a receiver, either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. We're sticking with Gabbert in the fourth spot.

How the Bengals approach the fourth pick will have a major impact on the remainder of round one.

1. Panthers: Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn.

The Panthers have decided to take a quarterback with the No. 1 pick, and prefer Newton's upside and dominant track record to Blaine Gabbert's mediocrity. With 93 touchdowns in 31 career college appearances, Newton defines "playmaker" at the most important position in the sport.

2. Broncos: Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama.

Dareus' impressive college production has been overlooked in Nick Fairley comparisons; he was really only a full-time player one year at Alabama, yet racked up 11 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. A stronger option than Fairley, Dareus gives Denver's woeful defensive line depth chart credibility.

3. Bills: Von Miller, linebacker, Texas A&M.

33 sacks, 50.5 tackles for loss, and 10 forced fumbles. The 2010 Butkus Award. Miller's body of work compares favorably to any of this year's top-ten picks, and his ability to bend and explode by offensive tackles is also second to none. Chan Gailey will wait for his franchise quarterback.

4. Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, quarterback, Missouri.

Gabbert is the highest rated pocket passer in the 2011 draft, even if he never fully put it together at Mizzou. Cincinnati has been linked to pass catchers, but Jerome Simpson, Jordan Shipley, Jermaine Gresham, and Andre Caldwell form a passable nucleus. Who's going to throw to them?

5. Cardinals: Robert Quinn, linebacker, North Carolina.

LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is another strong possibility, but need trumps value when the talent differential is so small. A freakish athlete with 4.57 speed at 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, Quinn would combine with O'Brien Schofield to give Arizona a formidable long-term outside pass rush.

6. Browns: A.J. Green, wide receiver, Georgia.

Brian Robiskie, Mohamed Massaquoi, and Chansi Stuckey won't cut it if the Browns are going to give Colt McCoy a serious chance to establish himself. Green has some Randy Moss to his game, scoring 23 touchdowns across 27 college starts in UGA's aggressive, downfield offense.

7. 49ers: Patrick Peterson, cornerback, LSU.

The 2010 Thorpe Award winner as college football's top defensive back, Peterson projects as a press-man corner capable of bottling up vertical, split end-type receivers. Also a playmaker fresh off a four-interception season, Peterson would allow the Niners to turn the page on Nate Clements.

8. Titans: Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn.

Lacking scheme versatility and a consistent motor, Fairley's "boom or bust" factor and inability to appeal to all teams will push a top-five talent out of the top seven. The 2010 SEC Defensive Player of the Year won't bypass the Titans as a near lock to be the best player left on their board.

9. Cowboys: Tyron Smith, tackle, USC.

Smith was a right tackle only at SC, but his impressive feet and overall athleticism have generated comparisons to D'Brickashaw Ferguson. With Peterson certain to go in the top seven, Smith will be Dallas' highest rated player at a position they must upgrade with Marc Colombo on his way out.

10. Redskins: Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.

Statistically, Locker grades out as an undrafted free agent with a 53.9 career completion rate, 15-25 record, and 6.65 yards-per-attempt average. Athletically, Locker is a picturesque fit for the Shanahans' scheme, which relies heavily on its quarterback making throws outside the pocket.

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11. Texans: Aldon Smith, linebacker, Missouri.

Draftniks question Smith's ability to drop into coverage, but the Texans won't be picking him to shut down tight ends. Drawing comparisons to DeMarcus Ware, Missouri's single-season sack record holder can be new Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' next big-time pass rusher.

12. Vikings: Prince Amukamara, cornerback, Nebraska.

The Vikes are enamored by Locker, but he won't get by Washington as Mike Shanahan's coveted quarterback in this draft. A safe pick at a need position, Amukamara could allow Minnesota to consider sliding Cedric Griffin to safety and upgrade a porous secondary save Antoine Winfield.

13. Lions: Anthony Castonzo, tackle, Boston College.

Detroit must draft the best lineman available to keep Matthew Stafford healthy. Castonzo draws comparisons to Jake Long as a rock-solid pass protector with ample run-blocking upside. He'd start at right tackle in year one, and eventually replace Jeff Backus on Stafford's blind side.

14. Rams: Julio Jones, wide receiver, Alabama.

Jones could conceivably go earlier than 14, but the odds on that happening diminish greatly once Washington passes. And we're convinced Shanahan is smitten with Locker. While St. Louis isn't "one player away," Jones instantly makes Josh McDaniels' offense considerably more lethal.

15. Dolphins: Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.

Ponder was a consensus first-round prospect entering the 2010 college season. After three arm surgeries in his final two years, his stock has come full circle with perhaps the finest offseason of any draft-eligible quarterback. Sorry mock drafters: The Dolphins aren't taking Mark Ingram at 15.

16. Jaguars: Mike Pouncey, guard, Florida.

The Jags are rumored to be targeting quarterbacks, but Locker won't fall to them, and they're drafting behind another passer-needy team. It isn't a great position for Jacksonville. They can fall back with an NFL-ready guard in Pouncey to shore up a weakness in the front five.

17. Patriots: Ryan Kerrigan, linebacker, Purdue.

Kerrigan had more career sacks (33.5), tackles for loss (57), and forced fumbles (14) in college than Von Miller, and faced better offensive lines in the Big Ten. While he isn't quite as explosive off the snap, Kerrigan fits the Pats' mold as a versatile, Mike Vrabel type who just makes plays.

18. Chargers: J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.

Watt could go earlier if 4-3 teams believe he's capable of affecting the quarterback as a left end, but he may lack the first-step burst that all four-man front clubs crave in linemen. San Diego's biggest weakness is at "five technique" end, and Watt is a perfect fit for the Chargers' system.

19. Giants: Corey Liuget, defensive tackle, Illinois.

Has any player's stock risen as quickly as Liuget's since the end of the college season? Drawing comparisons to Tommie Harris and Gerald McCoy, the interior pass rusher is a legitimate top-20 prospect after receiving a third-round grade from the Draft Advisory Committee in January.

20. Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end, Clemson.

Bowers' camp has done its best to downplay the knee concerns, but last year's NCAA sacks leader is dealing with degenerative arthritis in the joint. Teams will be extremely wary of a pass rusher who already wore a one-year wonder label, and is now nursing an explosion-sapping injury.

21. Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, tackle, Wisconsin.

We've admittedly had Carimi lasting too long in our first three mocks; this is a premier offensive lineman who would be picked in the teens if not for the abundance of difference-making, first-round pass rushers. In Kansas City, Carimi could book end Branden Albert for the next ten years.

22. Colts: Derek Sherrod, tackle, Mississippi State.

Colts president Bill Polian has been publicly clobbering his offensive line for two years, so it's probably time he does something about it. A 6-foot-6, 312-pounder with smarts (second team Academic All American) and ideal length (84-inch wingspan), Sherrod is ready to play in the NFL.

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23. Eagles: Jimmy Smith, cornerback, Colorado.

A legitimate top-15 talent with shutdown ability, Smith's character concerns won't cause him to slip past an Eagles defense that may be one right cornerback away from a Super Bowl appearance. Smith is a true man-to-man, "press" corner with enough physicality to also fill hard in run support.

24. Saints: Jabaal Sheard, defensive end, Pittsburgh.

Many draftniks wrote off Sheard after a relatively under-the-radar college career that included one negative off-the-field incident. The character concerns are overblown, however, and the 2010 Big East Defensive Player of the Year will be an impact player in Gregg Williams' defense.

25. Seahawks: Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive tackle, Temple.

Seattle has shown minimal interest in retaining free agent Brandon Mebane, potentially leaving a gaping hole next to Colin Cole at defensive tackle. Wilkerson can play both five-technique end and "three-technique" as a long, lean pocket pusher at 6-foot-4, 315 with nearly 36-inch arms.

26. Ravens: Brooks Reed, linebacker, Arizona.

Reed pushed himself into round one with a Clay Matthews-like 10-yard split in Indianapolis, and the Ravens confirmed their interest during a March 28 private workout. Jarret Johnson is entering a contract year at age 30, so Reed could help on nickel downs before replacing him in 2012.

27. Falcons: Danny Watkins, guard, Baylor.

Both Falcons starting guards are free agents, and so too is right tackle Tyson Clabo. Perhaps the draft's nastiest offensive lineman, Watkins could play any of the three positions in Atlanta. Though he's only 6-foot-3, 312, Watkins has plenty of length (34-inch arms) to replace Clabo if needed.

28. Patriots: Cameron Jordan, defensive end, Cal.

The media overrated Jordan after a sensational Senior Bowl; he just isn't a natural rushing the passer. Steve's son still offers value as a late first-rounder for 3-4 teams. Jordan played in a three-man front scheme at Cal, and he has long arms and massive hands to occupy blocks.

29. Bears: Marvin Austin, defensive tackle, North Carolina.

Austin's college career left lots to be desired (nine career sacks), but talent will keep him in round one. The nation's former top defensive tackle recruit has rehabbed his stock with an exceptional offseason, dominating at the East-West Shrine and standing out at the Combine and NC Pro Day.

30. Jets: Akeem Ayers, linebacker, UCLA.

Coach Rex Ryan values linebackers that can both rush and drop, and Ayers was a playmaker in coverage with six interceptions at UCLA, two of which he ran back for scores as a sophomore. The Jets have a great defense, but their outside 'backers are mediocre getting to the quarterback.

31. Steelers: Phil Taylor, defensive tackle, Baylor.

Taylor has rare movement skills for a 6-foot-4, 337-pounder and could project as 34-year-old nose tackle Casey Hampton's eventual successor in Pittsburgh. The Steelers would probably prefer an offensive lineman or cornerback, but may struggle to find one with enough value to draft here.

32. Packers: Torrey Smith, wide receiver, Maryland.

Smith is the ACC's all-time leader in kick return yards, an area he'd immediately add an explosive element to Green Bay's pedestrian special teams. Raw as a wideout, Smith could develop as a fourth or fifth receiver early before taking on a more prominent role in the Packers' five-wide sets.

Just missed: Alabama running back Mark Ingram, Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick, Georgia linebacker Justin Houston, Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph, Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn, Alabama tackle James Carpenter, Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett, Ohio State defensive end Cameron Heyward, Virginia defensive back Ras-I Dowling, Oregon State defensive tackle Stephen Paea, Colorado tackle Nate Solder, TCU quarterback Andy Dalton, Villanova tackle Ben Ijalana, Texas safety Aaron Williams, Miami guard Orlando Franklin.

 

[HacheMan]

Sneak peek: Ten 2011 player profiles

Christopher Harris



Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers: Freeman's breakout '10 season could've been even better. After all, he finished second among all quarterbacks in rush yards (8 more than Aaron Rodgers) but didn't run into the end zone once. That smells like bad luck, and there's no reason he can't start posting a Rodgers-esque four or five rushing scores per season. Add that to a 61.4 percent completion rate and a veteran-esque 25-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and you're looking at a potential star, one whose second-half improvement was palpable. This is a big man who can move and whose accuracy has made a huge jump, plus suddenly the Buccaneers have a nice stable of young skill-position weapons. We have questions about Tampa's offensive line, where a couple of young starters may not return and depth is a question. Nevertheless, Freeman is a major breakout candidate in '11.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: Let's dispense with the "toughness" argument. Cutler's plenty tough: He's been sacked an impossible 87 times in his two seasons with the Bears and has missed one game. He's got a subpar offensive line and no true No. 1 receiver yet still produced a top-20 fantasy QB season last year. By the same token, we were never on board with those who said Cutler plus Mike Martz would automatically equal 4,000 passing yards. Chicago's offense really started to hum only when Martz started using shorter passes and lots of runs. In fact, the Bears were a top-10 team in the run-heaviness of their play calling. Cutler will make big throws and have big days. But he also has 11 multiple-interception games the past two years. He's a mixed bag.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Whoa. When Ben Tate fractured his fibula and tore ankle ligaments in the Texans' preseason opener last year, it seemed logical that Foster would become the starter and be worth considering in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts. But few could've foreseen he'd become 2010's fantasy MVP, submitting a season just as dominant as Chris Johnson's '09. Behind one of the NFL's best young O-lines, Foster won the rushing and TD titles, and he finished tops in receiving yards by a running back and second in receptions. There's risk in making him a top-five selection this year: He's done it only once, and Tate could get healthy enough to start siphoning off backfield looks. But heck, there's risk getting up in the morning, right? Foster probably will regress some, but he's a 25-year-old, Adrian-Peterson-sized workhorse. He still easily should push 300-plus touches, and make magic with many of them.

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: There he is. McFadden battled turf toe in his rookie season and a knee problem in his sophomore campaign, but in '10 he finally showed what he could do in the NFL when healthy. He led the league with 14 carries of 20 yards or more, finished top-10 among running backs in receptions and receiving yards, and scored 10 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he also missed two early-season games because of a hamstring problem and suffered a recurrence of his toe issues by season's end, doing nothing to relieve worries that he's a game-time decision waiting to happen. Michael Bush is a free agent and could head elsewhere, which would both reaffirm Run-DMC's week-to-week touches and expose him to that many more hits. Even if Bush returns to the East Bay, though, McFadden is the playmaker the Raiders will most frequently ride.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers: Grant's Week 1 torn ankle ligaments and knee fracture made for unwanted backfield drama on the eventual Super Bowl champs and hobbled many fantasy teams to boot. The good news is Grant's surgery was in September, so he's been healed for a while. The bad news is James Starks leapt off the practice squad to provide Green Bay a playoff spark, and he'll be in the mix for touches in '11. Grant is likely at the head of a platoon situation, and although he's not a breakaway runner by NFL standards, he probably has the quickness edge on Starks. However, Starks is a load and has a chance to be the Pack's choice in at least goal-line situations.

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: Mathews was incredibly disappointing to fantasy owners who bought the rookie hype. He injured an ankle early in '10 and aggravated it in November, missing four games. In his absence and gimpiness, Mike Tolbert shined, scoring 11 touchdowns. The good news for Mathews is that once he got healthy and Tolbert got hurt, the Chargers saw a glimpse of the first-rounder they thought they were getting: In San Diego's final two games, Mathews had 44 touches for 222 yards and four touchdowns and looked like a new man. Listen, the kid has size and talent. He just wasn't ready to be a fantasy first-rounder yet, and the injury didn't help. In '11, expect more of the Mathews-Tolbert combo, with Tolbert probably vulturing quite a few scores. But Mathews is the more gifted player and should assert himself as the more valuable fantasy commodity.

Brandon Lloyd, WR, Broncos: Sometimes ranking players is a battle between your heart and your head. Our heart wants to believe in Lloyd. He was amazing in '10, leading the NFL in fantasy points among receivers, plus nearly doubling his career high for touchdowns in a season. But at some point, our head intervenes and says: Maybe space aliens momentarily inhabited his body. All Lloyd had ever done before last season was disappoint, yet there he was, running deep patterns and winning jump ball after jump ball, catching long passes from Kyle Orton, of all people. No wideout with more than 40 grabs last year approached Lloyd's 15.9 yards-at-the-catch average. But what do you do with him for '11? With Josh McDaniels gone and John Fox coaching the Broncos? With Tim Tebow's scattershot arm potentially in charge? With reality knocking on the door? Like Fox Mulder, we want to believe. But it's tough.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers: What a disaster '10 was for V-Jax owners. Suspended for an offseason DUI, Jackson was also unhappy with his contract and held out for the maximum allowable time while still accruing a year toward free agency. As a result, he missed the season's first 10 games, then pulled a calf muscle his first game back and missed two more. A ludicrous three-TD game one Thursday night in December was essentially wasted, as nobody in his right mind could trust Jackson enough to start him at that point, but at least it reminded us what this guy is all about. He's a spectacular downfield receiver -- with a tremendous size-speed combination -- and Philip Rivers loves to throw deep. With our lofty ranking, we're assuming V-Jax sticks around San Diego, most likely via the franchise tag. Should he land elsewhere, it likely would mean at least a small downgrade.

Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: Hand it to Johnson: He's got diva potential. From a hand-scrawled T-shirt under his uniform ("Why So Serious?") to a crushing drop at the end of a Week 12 game against the Steelers after which he blamed God via Twitter ("I PRAISE YOU 24/7!!! AND THIS HOW YOU DO ME!!!"), he's got the head-clutching behavior down. But is he the fantasy stud his 10 unexpected touchdowns last season say he is? Well, we have no qualms ranking him above disappointing wideout Lee Evans, who these days mostly sprints straight downfield looking unsuccessfully for bombs. Johnson is a physical player who runs nice routes and is quick out of his breaks. But he's not a burner, and he's not an after-the-catch wrecking ball, and right now he still has Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback. Plus, defenses won't be surprised by him this season. He should be good, but don't overpay.

Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos: We admit that Tebow is winning us over. His leadership and intangibles really are excellent. And although his throwing was seriously raw in his three-start audition at the end of '10, he did post a 300-yard passing game, one more than we believed he'd have for his entire career. What most intrigues fantasy owners, however, is Tebow's running: He had six rushing scores in limited action. Will new Broncos coach John Fox allow Tebow to play right away, especially if the team hasn't traded Kyle Orton? As long as the two passers stay on the same roster, we tentatively expect Orton to be the starter, but it seems likely that Tebow gets a crack at some point in '11. He'll be worth stashing in standard leagues.

 

[HacheMan]

Offseason NFL Mailbag

Welcome to Rotoworld's first Twitter mailbag. A recovering Luddite myself, it took awhile to warm up to our newest social media phenomenon. While I can sympathize with the sentiment that "nobody cares" about the mindless trivia of daily living, what Twitter does accomplish -- quite brilliantly -- is to merge clusters of people interested in similar topics, such as fantasy football.

It's transformed the nature of sports journalism, not just in breaking news instantaneously but also in tapping into a virtual army of participants sharing the same interests. For fantasy football leaguers, it's a godsend. Ask a beat writer, former scout, NFL insider, or fantasy "expert" for advice, and there's a good chance you will hear back within hours or even minutes. Make your voice heard in the latest NFL Draft speculation, track multiple fantasy sites, and even keep tabs on NFL players. You can't find a better way to gather information or pass along opinion than Twitter.

For those interested in starting a Twitter account, Razzball's Chet Gresham (@Chetrazzball) has a handy "Twitter 101 For Fantasy Football" guide to nudge the hesitant fantasy owner out of the nest. After you have "followed" the Rotoworld football team -- @ChrisWesseling, @evansilva, @greggrosenthal, @adamlevitan, @RotoPat, and @LJ_Rader -- you can peruse my lists. I've compiled 168 of the top NFL beat writers, 65 national NFL insiders, NFL team websites, and a smorgasbord of fantasy football, baseball, and general sports writers.

On to the mailbag.

I'm going to bundle these first four questions into one answer because multiple people asked about Jordy Nelson, James Starks, and Jerome Simpson.

Q: @cleanwillyb Most legit late season star: Jordy Nelson, Jerome Simpson, or James Starks?

Q: @RyFo18 Jordy Nelson at 7.05: Too high, low, or just right? Using Pro Football Focus ADP data.

Q: @jakeallen47 Dynasty: Jerome Simpson -- the next Aromashodu or something more?

Q: @Rubideaux1 Is James Starks a keeper league option? Which Packers back do you draft first?

A: Thanks to NFL.com's Game Rewind, I went back to watch the late-season tape for all three of these players. The short answer is that all three are legit as NFL starters. From a fantasy perspective, Simpson would be my choice as the most likely to carry over reliable weekly starter status in 2011.

Pro Football Focus' ADP data has Nelson going off the boards at 7.05 while Fantasy Football Calculator sets his ADP at 10.05. Most early offseason mocks are done by serious-minded fantasy owners, many of whom work in the fantasy business, which explains the high ADP for a breakout candidate. In other words, you won't see Nelson going off the board in the seventh round of your college buddies' league this summer. Back in early February, I ranked Nelson as a top-30 Dynasty receiver and my favorite offseason "buy." I'm sky-high on Donald Driver's natural successor, but mid-seventh round (WR33) is too high in redraft leagues with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley as Aaron Rodgers' first reads, Donald Driver still in the picture, and James Jones possibly returning. FF Calculatror's mid-tenth round (WR44) ADP is a better target for Nelson.

The Simpson-Aromashodu comparison arises because it was at this time last year that Aromashodu was oft mentioned as a chic breakout candidate candidate at wide receiver. Rotoworld was hyping Johnny Knox over Aromashodu because we didn't expect the latter to start for the Bears. Simpson, more talented with a much better pedigree than Aromashodu, is locked in as a Bengals starter in 2011 -- and quite possibly the No. 1 receiver. The Cincinnati Enquirer's Joe Reedy is betting that Simpson will start opposite A.J. Green or Julio Jones with Jordan Shipley in the slot. Quarterback questions remain, but Simpson should be heavily targeted beginning in Week 1.

After watching all of James Starks' playoff runs, I tweeted earlier in the week that the "poor man's Adrian Peterson" talk coming out of Green Bay is loco. Starks runs hard, is tough to tackle, and has three-down ability, but the explosiveness is missing. Though he was a major upgrade on Brandon Jackson, I'm not confident he can outplay Ryan Grant. Long-term, his injury history and upright running style are concerns. Short-term, I would give the advantage to the veteran Grant as the lead back in a two-back system. Bottom line: At this point, I wouldn't consider Starks a viable keeper unless you play in a league that typically keeps more than two backs per owner.

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Q: @Bennett911 How about top guys to move now while they have good value before they start to decline in the near future?

A: The most obvious candidate is Steven Jackson, who has several factors working against him. S-Jax has more touches than any back in the NFL since 2005, is exiting his prime at age 28, and is coming off a career-low 3.76 YPC -- including 3.38 from Weeks 12-17. Perhaps just as worrisome, the tea leaves suggest the Rams will draft a second-day back to ease Jackson's workload the next couple of years. He's certainly capable of bouncing back in Josh McDaniels' offense, but I think the smart money screams "sell now." It's rare for big backs with heavy career workloads to post career years beyond age 27.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has three factors working against him: He's a mundane talent, his output hinges on the Patriots playing dominant football week-in and week-out (i.e. last year's second half vs. last year's first half), and New England will add a rookie back to the mix. … The breakout seasons of Chiefs duo Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe came against the softest pass defense schedule we may ever see. Neither player will repeat their 2010 performance, which is especially problematic for Cassel. Even with that 27:7 TD-to-INT ratio, completion percentages of 55.0 and 58.2 in Kansas City the past two seasons are red flags.

Moving from the league's pass-heaviest head coach to one of the most offensively conservative, Brandon Lloyd won't sniff WR1 status again. Throw in the possibility (probability?) of Tim Tebow replacing Kyle Orton, and Lloyd's fantasy outlook is even more bleak.

Other candidates: Kyle Orton, Ryan Torain, Michael Turner, Peyton Hillis, Ahmad Bradshaw, Knowshon Moreno, Steve Smith (NYG), Marcedes Lewis, Chris Cooley, Brandon Pettigrew

Q: @rocktop15 How do trades work in keeper leagues? What's the preferred etiquette? Asking because I'm in one in the 2nd year.

A: I've always believed a good, fair trade should hurt both owners just a little bit to pull the trigger. Not only is there no challenge in pulling the wool over a lesser owner's eyes, it's just downright inartistic.

My usual M.O. for keeper-league trades? Create a spreadsheet for every roster in the league with separate columns for each position. Do your homework, target the player(s) you covet, and see what the owner might need from your roster. Alternatively, target the player(s) you want to shed from your roster and see which owners might have a need at those positions. Send a fair offer that provides a reasonable solution for both teams. If you have five or six players worthy of keeping in a four-keeper league, target an owner with two or three elite players and no depth.

Keep in mind, also, that some weeks just don't lend themselves to your pieces fitting in another owner's puzzle. Wait a week or two and revisit the respective rosters once the landscape changes.

A word on etiquette: If you receive a fair offer from another owner but simply don't want to part with your player(s), offer an explanation. Don't let the other owner bully you into doing a deal even if he's giving up more value in a quantity-for-quality scenario. On the other hand, if you receive an absurd offer, resist the urge to lash out. You don't owe an explanation if the other owner is either clueless on player values or unwilling to begin talks with a fair initial offering.

Q: @Rubideaux1 Thoughts on ADP for Jahvid Best and Ryan Matthews. Is Shonne Greene now a keeper league value pick? Go get Dez still?

A: Best's ADP is 3.02 at Pro Football Focus and 3.10 at Fantasy Football Calculator. Mathews' ADP is 3.11 at Pro Football Focus and 4.01 at Fantasy Football Calculator. Again, these ADPs are artificially inflated by the type of drafts that are typically held this time of the year. Both players are coming off disappointing rookie performances, and that's going to weigh heavily on the average drafter come July and August. I love Best as a "buy" in Dynasty and keeper leagues, but he's certainly not a tremendous redraft bargain at this rate. Mathews is even riskier because Mike Tolbert is looming in the event of injury or slump. If I had to choose one in mid-April, it would be Best.

If Shonn Greene was on my roster in a keeper league, I'd package him to a true believer for an upgrade. I don't think he's a special talent, and backs without a role in the passing game often lack week-to-week consistency. The Jets clearly envision a bigger role for Joe McKnight, and LaDainian Tomlinson may not be out of the picture as a goal-line vulture.

Run -- do not walk -- to get Dez if his owner is a Nervous Nelly.

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Q: @Joe_Wirth Peyton Manning: At what point should an owner look to trade him away to maximize value? Am I already too late?

Q: @MJP0ke Love the column idea! With Brady and Manning getting long in the tooth, what young guns are next? Can anyone ever compare?

A: Resist the urge, especially if you have a contending roster. Make it your goal to develop Manning's successor instead. With top-six QB finishes for twelve straight seasons, Manning is the most consistently valuable player in the history of fantasy football. The Colts will upgrade the O-Line in the draft, and Manning could have a receiving corps on par with his record-setting 2004 season if Austin Collie stays healthy. I would bet the best statistical QB in NFL history has 4-to-5 more top-six finishes in his holster, and I'm not a fan of looking beyond three years in Dynasty league trades.

Yes, playing the stock market is a must for consistent winning in Dynasty and keeper leagues. You have to successfully buy low and sell high. Remember the first law of Dynasty, though: Winning. Every year. Trading a weekly advantage at QB isn't going to get you closer to putting another trophy on the mantle.

Fantasy-wise, there's not going to be a player that compares to Manning's career arc. I like Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Josh Freeman as the most likely to join the top tier. Bradford gets a major boost from Josh McDaniels' offense but needs a talent infusion at receiver. Ryan and Flacco also need help from their teams' front offices to make the leap. Freeman has to duplicate last season's success against a more difficult schedule. If Matthew Stafford can stay in one piece, he has a realistic shot at 30 TDs in a breakout season. If you want a darkhorse candidate, remember that Tim Tebow led the league in fantasy points over the final three weeks of the season -- his first three NFL starts.

Q: @MJP0ke I live for this! Other Q's: How good can AJ Green be? What rookie RB do you like the most in draft? CJ2K in trouble with no QB?

Q: @ericktumang Who's the best rookie RB to grab in a dynasty league, talent-wise?

A: Like Jon Gruden, I believe Green is the "clear-cut" top receiver in this year's draft. He's not a once in a blue moon talent like Calvin Johnson (or even Dez Bryant), though. A common mistake Dynasty leaguers make is believing that there must be at least one beast at wide receiver and running back in every draft. Talents like Adrian Peterson and Megatron don't come along every year. It's what makes them special. And anointing pretenders as the next great thing only leads to more owners sleeping when the real deal comes along. To answer your question, I would rank Green in the top-15 area as a Dynasty league wide receiver right now. I had Dez just inside the top-10 coming into the league and Calvin in the top-5.

When drafting rookie running backs, consider the lay of the land in modern-day backfields. Now more than ever, mid-to-late round backs are keeping pace with the their first-round brethren. Where the good drafters peel away from poor drafters is analyzing team fit and reports out of OTAs/training camp. With the caveat that choosing a top back before the draft is an exercise in futility (barring an Adrian Peterson-level talent), I'm still leaning toward Mark Ingram. For a back who dominated the nation's best conference, Ingram has been over-scrutinized -- in the usual smokescreen fashion -- leading up to the draft.

CJ2K doesn't have a QB in place, but he'll have a veteran (Matt Hasselbeck or Marc Bulger?) and an early-round rookie in Nashville by the time training camp rolls around. With coach Mike Munchak promising more creative play-calling and coordinator Chris Palmer hanging his hat on the running game, Johnson will bounce back in 2011. Book it.

Q: @MJP0ke My own team Q for you: I have CJ2K and Jonathan Stewart kept. Should I keep Blount and/or Bradshaw? OR I could also trade one or both and my rookie pick for the 1st rookie pick and grab Green to compliment Megatron and Dez. Keepers: not due til week before our draft at the end of August. Circle back then?

A: Yes, circle back in August. The values of Blount and Bradshaw are heavily dependent on the draft and free agency respectively. At the same time, if you can package Blount and your rookie pick for the 1.01 to grab Green, I'd pull the trigger. It's worth the risk if it leaves you with Johnson, Stewart, and Bradshaw at running back.

Q: @jrbaillargeon What 3 would you pick in keeper redraft? Vick, Hillis, Blount all count as round 13, V-Jax 7th round, M. Wallace 5th round. Keepers are due a week prior to draft and players move up 2 rounds per year. Other players of value are Starks and McKnight.I can trade for picks.

A: Vick is a no-brainer. V-Jax and Wallace has a sizable talent edge on Hillis and Blount, but your league's system gives the edge to the backs in this case. If I had to make the call right now, I'd keep Hillis and Blount in the 13th. The opportunity to keep them again next year in the 11th round is too much to pass up.

Q: @DaGreatBuddha Auction keeper, can keep 2: Hillis 1%, Blount 1%, Britt 1%, D-Jax 15%, Megatron 23%, D.Bryant 2%. Keepers are due in September, but obsessing is the only football I have right now.

A: See what the lockout has wrought? Again, so much can change as the result of the draft, free agency, and even a potential suspension for Britt. I think Dez is a no-brainer in a keeper league at two percent. The second pick is close enough for coin-flip territory between Hillis, Blount, and Britt, with the deciding factors being scoring system and league keeper trends / position scarcity. Ask me again in August.

Q: @TheSpecialMan Keeper league, need to pick two to keep (pick I must give up included) Ahmad Bradshaw (3rd), Hakeem Nicks (4th), V-Jax (8th), Miles Austin (15th)

A: Miles Austin is the no-brainer here. Nicks is more valuable in Dynasty than V-Jax, but he's far from certain to outscore him in 2011. I'd go with Jackson considering the difference in draft picks surrendered in a keeper league.

Q: @TheJewru Would you consider moving MJD for Nicks in a PPR league, with 3 RB 3 WR?

A: In a PPR format? Yes. Jones-Drew is progressing nicely in his rehab from meniscus surgery, but any mention of a "bone-on-bone" condition still gives me the willies. The Jaguars found an excellent backup in Rashad Jennings last year, and I expect his role to steadily grow at the expense of Jones-Drew's consistency the next couple of seasons. Nicks has 100-catch, double-digit TD potential on an annual basis for the next five years.

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Q: @dooger2 Would love to read in-depth discussion of where Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt rank after recent troubles. Where they rank vs. a guy like Mike Wallace who has less upside but is more of a sure thing.

A: Great question. I subscribe to the Ozzie Newsome philosophy on character evaluation: "I think gut feeling has a lot to do with it." You can't always predict your second-round pick falling down a flight of stairs or your star running back walking away from millions to "find himself" in a haze of marijuana smoke and holistic healing while shleping around Australia in a $7-a-day tent.

I've attempted to clarify my stance on knuckleheads in the past. Of late, any player running afoul of the law -- and the subsequent long arm of Roger Godell's personal conduct policy -- is put the through the knucklehead ringer. Unfortunately, it's not that simplistic.

Plenty of players run into early-career legal woes (i.e. Randy Moss, Cris Carter, Ray Lewis) and go on to Hall of Fame caliber careers. Some stay out of trouble off the field only to make an arse out of themselves on the field (i.e. Terrell Owens, Jeff George, Ryan Leaf). Still others combine the worst of both traits. Before shooting himself in the leg at a nightclub, Plaxico Burress pouted, disrespected coaches, incurred a series of team and league fines, and showed poor on-field awareness. Brandon Marshall has been arrested multiple times in addition to the disturbing trends of shouting at his coaches and quarterbacks, showing up to camp out of shape, ripping fans, and making a one-man spectacle of himself in practices. JaMarcus Russell ballooned to 300 pounds, never worked to improve his awful footwork or scattershot accuracy, and got busted for a nasty "purple drank" habit.

The trick is to separate the first two groups from the third group. It's more guessing game than science, especially when the subjects at hand have yet to reach their 23rd birthday -- as is the case with Bryant and Britt.

To hear his father tell it, Britt has been the victim of simple mathematics in the NFL. To quote Rocky, "You hang out with nice people, you get nice friends, ya understand? You hang out with smart people, you get smart friends. You hang out with yo-yo's, you get yo-yo friends. You see, simple mathematics." Britt has combined yo-yo friends with the poor decision-making that goes with immaturity. Before last week's car chase with police, he had landed in hot water for participating in a bar fight, for helping childhood friend and rapper Albert "Albee Al" Robinson with bail money, for a traffic violations, and for showing up to offseason practices out of shape. Separately, each of the incidents is relatively minor. Taken together, they paint a picture of a young player desperately in need of a wake-up call.

As it turns out, Britt's car-chase case could result in nothing more than a tongue-lashing. The prosecutor acknowledged that jail time is unlikely because Britt had no prior criminal record. Profootballtalk's Mike Florio, a former practicing attorney, believes commissioner Roger Goodell's stated intention to enforce the personal conduct policy for behavior during the lockout is a "flimsy proposition." What fantasy owners are left with is a top-10 talent at wide receiver who may not miss a single game . As young and talented as Britt is, the upside justifies the risk in my opinion.

Bryant's rough upbringing -- raised by a single, often absentee mother who spent 18 months in prison -- doesn't excuse his recent behavior. It does give us a window into his "lack of life skills" as a young kid who "just doesn't know any better," though. Bryant's recent mistakes boil down to back-talking an overzealous security guard, falling out of favor with Deion Sanders, and failing to make payments for expensive jewelry accepted before he entered the NFL. The Dallas-area mall has apologized for the flap, and Bryant has already begun making payments for the jewelry.

When those around the Cowboys organization talk about Bryant, they use phrases like: down to earth, loves the Cowboys, hard worker, has a good heart, and intentions are pure. What we have here is a clueless kid who loves football, yet is ignorant of basic adult responsibilities. What he's not is a criminal or a bad seed. As is the case with Britt, Bryant absolutely needed a wake-up call -- and the Cowboys knew it. Head coach Jason Garrett and new receivers coach Jimmy Robinson will be charged with instilling discipline once the lockout is over. There will be minor mistakes along the way, but this is a player with the freakish talent to emerge as the best receiver in the NFL. He's already done things on the field that have caused Cowboys officials to say, "I've never seen that before." His vice-grip hands, enormous catch radius, explosive acceleration, and Michael Irvin-like physicality are the elements of an off-the-charts All-Pro. Bryant has to be valued as a top-10 Dynasty/keeper receiver even with the off-field controversy.

Where do Britt and Bryant rank vs. a safer young talent such as Mike Wallace? I think Wallace has every bit the upside that Britt has. Both are elite top-10 talents in my eyes. Back in February, I ranked Wallace No. 8 among Dynasty receivers and Britt one tier lower at No. 11 due to the Titans' uncertain QB situation and his own character concerns. Wallace's advantage has increased slightly with Britt's latest incident. As impressive as both players are, Bryant is on another plane with the likes of Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson. He's certainly not as safe as those three, but he's every bit as talented. He also has a much longer shelf-life in Dynasty leagues. I would target Bryant in every league this offseason, and I wouldn't think twice about it. Difference-making talent is worth the risk.

 

[HacheMan]

Draft 2011: Late-Round Steals
North Carolina Quarterback T.J. Yates

The Tar Heels' all-time passing leader, Yates is ideally built (6'4/221) for the position with one of the quickest releases in the draft. Though there are questions about Yates' arm strength, he's not that far off from TCU's Andy Dalton, a projected first- to early second-round pick. Yates started 44 games at UNC, completing 62.26 percent of his career passes with 58 TDs. An aggressive passer with plenty of upside, Yates could be just as good as Dalton and available several rounds later.

Nebraska Running Back Roy Helu

Some players with elite size-speed combinations are workout wonders with little production. Not Helu. Armed with 4.4 speed at 6'0/219, Helu averaged 6.62 yards per carry as a senior with 11 TDs and was voted second-team All-Big 12 by the conference's coaches, leaving Nebraska as the No. 5 rusher in school history. Helu also has big hands for a running back at 10 1/8 inches, which should help his ball security. He'll appeal to zone-blocking teams like the Redskins and Colts.

UCF Offensive Tackle Jah Reid

One of NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock's favorite sleepers, Reid was a 41-game starter at right tackle for the Golden Knights. While his value is limited because of his ability to play just one position on the line, the 6'7/325-pound man child has ideal NFL length (34" arms, 10" hands) and a decorated track record as a two-time first-team All-Conference USA selection. Any power-blocking team in need of a right tackle should have its eyes on Reid early on the draft's third day.

Marshall Inside Linebacker Mario Harvey

Harvey ranked fourth in the nation in tackles as a senior, manning the middle of Marshall's 4-3 defense. Nicknamed "Thumper" for his propensity to make big hits, Harvey's stock took off at the Thundering Pro Day. Built low to the ground at 5'11/257, Harvey ran an eye-opening 4.43 forty time with a 32" vertical and 4.19 short shuttle. He also showed a knack for rushing the passer in college (21 career sacks, 36.5 tackles for loss), and will appeal to 3-4 teams as an inside 'backer.

Miami cornerback Ryan Hill

Demarcus Van Dyke and Brandon Harris get more attention among corner prospects from The U, but Hill may have the most upside. The 5'11/205-pound former wideout picked off more passes as a senior than either of the 'Canes' big-name cornerbacks, and has drawn comparisons to Green Bay's Sam Shields for his college pedigree. Hill, in fact, started over Van Dyke last year. At the very least, the experienced special teamer will make an impact in kickoff coverage.

Southern Illinois Cornerback Korey Lindsey

Lindsey is built unimpressively from head to toe (5'10/181, 7 7/8" hands), but no one can doubt his playmaking ability. A two-time first-team FCS All American and three-time first-team All-Missouri Valley Conference pick, Lindsey picked off 14 career passes despite teams' refusal to throw in his direction as a senior. Also offering value in the punt return game, Lindsey projects as an NFL nickel back with ideal ball skills. He'll likely begin his pro career covering slot receivers.

North Carolina State Wide Receiver Owen Spencer

Spencer ran a relatively disappointing 4.54 forty at the Combine, but he plays much faster. The 6'2/195-pound deep threat set the ACC single-season record with a 25.5 yards-per-catch average as a junior, finishing his career with a 19.37 mark and 15 touchdowns. Spencer also has long arms (33 3/8") for a receiver and a big "catch radius." The 23-year-old needs to get stronger, but possesses dangerous vertical skills and could make an immediate impact in four-receiver sets.

Arkansas State Tackle Derek Newton

Newton was only a two-year starter at Arkansas State, but he's certainly got NFL-caliber athleticism. At 6'5/311, Newton posted a 5.01 forty time at the Combine to rank third out of the 49 offensive linemen who participated. He's clearly a top-notch athlete. Also a first-team All-Sun Belt selection as a senior, Newton will kick inside in the pros after protecting the blind side for the Indians. Teams that value guards who can pull and block downfield will be intrigued by Newton.

Stanford Outside Linebacker Tom Keiser

Keiser has flown well under the radar for a pass rusher who was highly productive in the Pac 10. A surprise early entrant into the draft, Keiser was snubbed for a Combine invite after racking up an impressive 19.5 sacks and 31.5 tackles for loss in then-Cardinal defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's "multiple" defense. At 6'5/244, Keiser is built to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Old pals Fangio and Jim Harbaugh may give Keiser a long look in the later rounds Saturday.

Baldwin-Wallace Outside Linebacker Keith Darbut

An athletic freak with plenty of production, Darbut ran a 4.32 during a pre-draft private workout with the Colts, and proved his sub-4.4 speed wasn't a fluke with a 4.38 at the Akron Pro Day. Darbut isn't well known because he played at D-3 Baldwin Wallace, but he dominated that level enough to earn Ohio Athletic Conference Defensive Lineman of the Year honors. At 6'4/230 with ridiculous wheels, Darbut could make an immediate impact running down kicks on special teams.